|
|
| 31.07 20:19 |
Hot stocks: Mastercard, Symantec, Exxon
The maker of drugs for hospital use - Cadence Pharmaceuticals Inc - said it successfully completed two clinical trials for its Acetavance drug, an intravenous acetaminophen treatment for pain.
Walt Disney Company which reported a 9% jump in quarterly profit, sparking fears that U.S. economic woes will hit its results.
Bristol-Myers Squibb. Co. offered to buy the portion of ImClone Systems Inc it doesn't already own for $60 a share.
The world's second-biggest credit-card company Mastercard Inc posted a $746.7M loss on costs to settle an antitrust lawsuit with American Express Co.
Motorola, Inc posted an unexpected second-quarter profit on job cuts and sales above estimates.
The world's biggest maker of security software Symantec Corp said first-quarter profit almost doubled and gave a forecast above analysts' estimates on strong sales.
Exxon Mobil Corp reported a quarterly profit of $11.68B, the largest in U.S. history. Nonetheless, Exxon still fell short of analyst forecasts.
|
| 31.07 20:06 |
EU stocks closed mix: the FTSE-100 down 8.80 points (-0.16%) to 5411.90; the CAC-40 up 5.02 points (+0.11%) to 4405.57; the DAX up 19.44 points (+0.3%) to 6479.56 |
| 31.07 19:57 |
Oil prices continue to decrease as the NYMEX session winds down, trading at 124.50 and down $2.27 on the day |
| 31.07 19:43 |
EUR/USD remains under pressure
EUR/USD chopped down to $1.5575 area before sharply rebounded to $1.5590 area as US stocks take a turn for the worse. Earlier rate printed high on $1.5695, but failed to break above, spurring the retreat.
|
| 31.07 19:04 |
Dow -95.91 at 11487.78, Nasdaq +14.04 at 2343.76, S&P -6.06 at 1278.20
Stocks continue to trade with mixed results. There has been no clear leader this session. Gains are most noticeable in the healthcare sector (+0.9%), and telecom (+1.0%). Energy (-2.5%) remains the worst performer.
|
| 31.07 18:45 |
HFE about US data
"The rise in Chi-PM headline tp 50.8 was reflected in new orders, up to
53.5 from 52.0, and production, up to 49.2 from 45.1. Reason might be
high export. Milwaukee index also
showed orders rebounding, so we now have to expect a small uptick in the national ISM report tomorrow."
|
| 31.07 18:25 |
Dow -121.40 at 11462.29, Nasdaq +7.87 at 2337.59, S&P -9.41 at 1274.85
The Dow and the S&P have pared losses, but continue to trade meaningfully lower. The Nasdaq remains an outperformer.
Providing leadership to the Nasdaq is Research In Motion (+5.10). RIMM has advanced almost 9% since Tuesday as buyers pick up the name ahead of the release of its new products.
Also making an ascent in recent sessions, shares of First Solar
(+6.95) have found favor. The stock topped earnings per share and
revenue estimates for its most recent quarter. The stock was also
upgraded at several firms.
|
| 31.07 18:05 |
American focus: Dollar little changed against Euro after GDP trails forecast
The dollar was little changed against the euro as reports showed the
U.S. economy grew less than forecast in the second quarter and initial
jobless claims rose last week to a five-year high.
The U.S. currency pared its loss versus the euro as crude oil prices
fell, deepening the monthly decline to 11 percent. The pound dropped
against the euro after reports showed British consumer confidence
decreased this month to a record low and house prices fell the most in
almost two decades.
``The economic backdrop is far less robust than people thought,'' said
Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup Global
Markets Inc. in New York.
Crude oil fell 1.4 percent to $124.96 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a
correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg
calculations based on their value changes. A reading of 1 would mean
they moved in lockstep.
``Oil looks quite heavy, and commodities seem to be in a longer-term
downward trend,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD
Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``It lent some support to the dollar.''
Some companies also bought the dollar at month-end to balance their books, according to Osborne.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 32 percent
chance of the Fed raising its 2 percent target rate for overnight loans
between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by Sept. 16, down
from 38 percent odds yesterday. Most traders expect policy makers to
keep borrowing costs unchanged when they next meet Aug. 5.
U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent
in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported today. The
median forecast of economists was for an advance of 2.3 percent. The
report also showed a recession may have begun in the final three months
of 2007, as GDP was revised to show a contraction in the period.
``The dollar's rally was built on a shaky foundation,'' said Stephen
Malyon, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto.
``Today's numbers just highlighted there's more downside risk to
growth.''
Non-farm payrolls dropped by 75,000 this month following a decline of
62,000 in June, according to the median forecast of economists. The
Labor Department's report, which includes government hiring, is due
tomorrow.
The euro strengthened earlier versus the dollar after the European
Union statistics office reported that the euro zone's inflation rate
rose to 4.1 percent this month, the highest since 1992. The European
Central Bank raised its main refinancing rate to 4.25 percent on July
3, the highest since 2001.
|
| 31.07 17:45 |
HFE about jobless claims
Ian Shepherdson, Chief U.S. Economist at HFE, says of 448k jobless
claims, "We have no doubt that the trend in claims is upwards but this
number overdoes the gloom."
|
| 31.07 17:25 |
SocGen about US GDP
Economist Stephen Gallagher at SocGen says one of the biggest surprises
in GDP "was a decline in Inventories. Final Sales--which exclude
inventories-rose by 3.9% in Q2. The weak inventory position could be a
support for growth in the second half."
|
| 31.07 17:17 |
Glum mood on Wall Street
GDP, Exxon disappointments and jump in jobless claims drag on the Dow and S&P, but Nasdaq gains.
Weak readings on the economy cast a cloud over stocks Thursday morning,
although the tech-heavy Nasdaq got a boost from better-than-expected
earnings from Motorola.
A government report that showed the economy grew at a
slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter hit sentiment, as did a
surge in initial jobless claims. Exxon Mobil, which reported sales and
profit that fell short of forecasts, also dampened the mood.
The weak opening comes on the heels of a big two-day rally for stocks.
In the news on Thursday:
The economy grew at a faster pace in the second quarter than it did in
the first quarter, but the pace of growth was not as fast as economists
had forecast. The Commerce Department reported that GDP grew at an
annual rate of 1.9% in the three months ended in June, up from a
revised first-quarter growth rate of 0.9%. GDP for the fourth quarter
of 2007 was revised lower, to a decline of 0.2%.
The Labor Department said initial filings for state jobless benefits
rose to a five-year high. Jobless claims increased by a seasonally
adjusted 44,000 to 448,000 in the week ended July 26, much higher than
the 395,000 that was expected in a consensus estimate of economists .
Exxon Mobil: The world's largest publicly traded oil company
reported the largest quarterly profit in history, but missed
expectations. Exxon reported net income of $11.68 billion. Analysts
were looking for a profit of $12.1 billion. Exxon reported revenue of
$138 billion, which missed analyst expectations of $144.4 billion.
Crude oil futures fell 32 cents to $126.45 at barrel, after
surging more than $4 on Wednesday. Oil prices have fallen sharply in
recent weeks from a record high over $147 a barrel that was set earlier
in the month. However, a government report released Wednesday showed
that U.S. stockpiles of gasoline fell unexpectedly in the latest week.
Motorola announced modest profits for the second
quarter, despite slumping handset sales. The tech giant posted earnings
of 2 cents per share, excluding one-time charges, which was better than
expected.
COMEX gold for December delivery rose $17.20 to $929.50.
Treasury prices rallied, sending the yield on the
benchmark 10-year note lower to 3.96%. Bond prices and yields move in
opposite directions.
|
| 31.07 16:25 |
Lehman says to fade the jobless claims data
"Much of the increase was likely due to the introduction of the
Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program, which was recently
signed into the law, suggesting that labor market conditions did not
change markedly in late July. We believe the risks are balanced around
our forecast for nonfarm payrolls of -60,000."
|
| 31.07 16:05 |
CRUDE OIL: WTI Nymex crude oil breaks below $125.35 - down $1.42 session |
| 31.07 15:45 |
BAS about US economic growth
Economist
Gary Bigg at BAS says after modest ECI, "We expect continued sluggish
economic growth over 2008, with weak labor markets and a rising
unemployment rate. This should put downward pressure on compensation
gains despite persistent headline inflation."
|
| 31.07 15:25 |
Dow -63.02 at 11520.67, Nasdaq +7.62 at 2337.34, S&P -4.90 at 1279.36
The Nasdaq is outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the
S&P 500. It currently trades with a healthy gain, while its
counterparts remain in negative ground.
The Nasdaq is benefitting from strength in biotech and drug company ImClone Systems ( +17.79). ImClone has received an offer from Bristol-Myers Squibb (-0.31)
to purchase the remaining shares of IMCL for $4.5 billion, or $60 per
share. Bristol-Myers already owns a large piece of ImClone.
Separately, the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index climbed to 50.8 in
July from 49.6 in June, indicating moderate expansion. The report is
indicative of business conditions in the Chicago area, but carries
considerably less importance than the morning's previous economic data.
|
| 31.07 15:05 |
Nomura about Jobless claims
Economists at Nomura say the "startling" increase in jobless claims is
aberrational "but other data also reveal further deterioration in the
job market. For instance, the Monster employment
index fell in July to its lowest level in 30 months and the Conference
Board's consumer survey showed a downgrade of the consumer assessment
of job conditions."
|
| 31.07 14:46 |
USA Chicago PMI (July) 50.8 |
| 31.07 14:32 |
US Stocks Open: DJIA -118.14, Nadaq -16.61, S&P -10.21 |
| 31.07 14:15 |
Before the bell: Wall Street set to open lower
Stock futures continue to indicate a markedly lower start (S&P futures -9.0, Nasdaq futures -14.8). Oil prices have erased their early losses and now trade with a slight gain. Exxon Mobil missed the consensus earnings per share forecast of $2.52 per share, generating just $2.27 per share during the second quarter.
The preliminary reading for second quarter GDP indicates the economy
grew at an annualized rate of 1.9%, which is below the widely expected
second quarter growth rate of 2.3%, but up from the downwardly revised
0.9% growth rate registered in the first quarter. Separately, initial
jobless claims for the week ending July 26 totaled 448,000, which is
above the 393,000 that was widely expected. The prior week's claims
were revised slighly downward to 404,000.
Stocks are on track for a positive start following better-than-expected quarterly earnings per share results from Disney, Express Scripts, Visa, Murphy Oil, Aetna, Tyco, Altria and CBS Corp.
|
| 31.07 13:39 |
USA GDP (Q2) advance Y/Y 1,9% |
| 31.07 13:33 |
USA Jobless claims (week to 26.07) 448К |
| 31.07 13:16 |
European session: Euro rises as inflation accelerates to fastest pace in 16 Years
The euro rose against the dollar, snapping two days of losses, after
data showed inflation in the region accelerated to the fastest pace in
16 years.
The euro also advanced versus the British pound on speculation rising
consumer prices will increase pressure on the European Central Bank to
raise interest rates a second time this year.
The pound dropped after a report showed U.K. consumer confidence slumped to a record low.

``Along
with some reasonably hawkish rhetoric from ECB policy makers, we're
going to see inflation moving further to the upside,'' said Jeremy
Stretch, a senior strategist in London at Rabobank International, the
third-largest Dutch bank. ``That might just lead the market to think
that even with the downturn in economic data, the ECB might turn toward
tighter monetary policy. That's providing a little support for the
euro.''
The euro zone's consumer price index rose 4.1 percent in July, the
biggest increase since April 1992, according to the European Union
statistics office in Luxembourg.
``ECB officials remain hawkish even though the European economy is
slowing,'' said Satoru Ogasawara, an economist at Credit Suisse Group
in Tokyo. ``Provided economic figures continue to be not so bad, strong
inflation figures will reignite expectations of a rate hike by the
ECB.''
The euro has still fallen 0.9 percent versus the dollar this month amid
speculation the Frankfurt-based ECB will hold off from raising interest
rates as the risks from slowing economic growth outweigh those from
accelerating inflation.
The U.S. dollar strengthened yesterday after ADP Employer Services
reported that companies added 9,000 jobs in July after cutting a
revised 77,000 positions in June. The report is a leading indicator of
tomorrow's Labor Department employment data. Non-farm payrolls fell
75,000 this month following a drop of 62,000 in June, according to
economists surveyed.
The U.S. payroll report, which includes government hiring, has shown a
reduction in jobs each month this year, while ADP has recorded only two
declines.
The Federal Reserve yesterday extended an emergency-lending program for
Wall Street firms through January after policy makers judged markets
are still too weak to operate without a backstop from the central bank.
``It suggests the market is still fragile and we're not out of the
woods yet,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG
in Stamford, Connecticut. ``That means the Fed won't raise rates any
time soon. I'm not buying the dollar.''
U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual 2.3 percent rate in
the second quarter after 1 percent growth in the first three months of
the year, according to survey of economists before the
Commerce Department releases the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

EUR/USD opened in early Europe around $1.5570. Offers $1.5640, $1.5650/55, $1.5670, bids $1.5605/00, $1.5580/70
GBP/USD traded within $1.9780-$1.9830 range.
USD/JPY opened in early Europe around Y108.05. Offers Y108.30/35, stops above offers Y108.40/60, stops above.
At 12:30 GMT focus will be on GDP (Q2) advance Y/Y and PCE price index (Q2) advance. At 13:45 GMT is due Chicago PMI (July).
|
| 31.07 12:56 |
JPM abour US GDP
Economists at JPM say GDP will be revised back to 2005 tomorrow,
raising the possibility that a recent quarter will show a decline. They
expect the GDP deflator for 2Q08 will be soft, reflecting surging
import prices.
|
| 31.07 12:26 |
European focus:
The euro rose against the dollar, snapping two days of losses, after
data showed inflation in the region accelerated to the fastest pace in
16 years.
The euro also advanced versus the British pound on speculation rising
consumer prices will increase pressure on the European Central Bank to
raise interest rates a second time this year. The pound dropped after a
report showed U.K. consumer confidence slumped to a record low.
``Along with some reasonably hawkish rhetoric from ECB policy makers,
we're going to see inflation moving further to the upside,'' said
Jeremy Stretch, a senior strategist in London at Rabobank
International, the third-largest Dutch bank. ``That might just lead the
market to think that even with the downturn in economic data, the ECB
might turn toward tighter monetary policy. That's providing a little
support for the euro.''
The euro zone's consumer price index rose 4.1 percent in July, the
biggest increase since April 1992, according to the European Union
statistics office in Luxembourg.
``ECB officials remain hawkish even though the European economy is
slowing,'' said Satoru Ogasawara, an economist at Credit Suisse Group
in Tokyo. ``Provided economic figures continue to be not so bad, strong
inflation figures will reignite expectations of a rate hike by the
ECB.''
The euro has still fallen 0.9 percent versus the dollar this month amid
speculation the Frankfurt-based ECB will hold off from raising interest
rates as the risks from slowing economic growth outweigh those from
accelerating inflation.
The U.S. dollar strengthened yesterday after ADP Employer Services
reported that companies added 9,000 jobs in July after cutting a
revised 77,000 positions in June. The report is a leading indicator of
tomorrow's Labor Department employment data. Non-farm payrolls fell
75,000 this month following a drop of 62,000 in June, according to
economists surveyed.
The U.S. payroll report, which includes government hiring, has shown a
reduction in jobs each month this year, while ADP has recorded only two
declines.
The Federal Reserve yesterday extended an emergency-lending program for
Wall Street firms through January after policy makers judged markets
are still too weak to operate without a backstop from the central bank.
``It suggests the market is still fragile and we're not out of the
woods yet,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG
in Stamford, Connecticut. ``That means the Fed won't raise rates any
time soon. I'm not buying the dollar.''
|
| 31.07 12:05 |
CRUDE OIL: WTI Nymex crude oil is at $125.78, down 94 cents |
| 31.07 11:27 |
EUR/JPY:
Offers in the Y169.00 area now under pressure as the cross continues to
grind out fresh highs for the day. Short-term stops noted above, ahead
of further supply at Y169.50/70.
|
| 31.07 11:02 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y110.60 Resistance 2: Y109.60 Resistance 1: Y108.40 Current price: Y108.21 Support 1: Y107.70 Support 2: Y106.50 Support 3: Y106.00 Comments: Dollar broke out from the morning range and currently goes to strong resistance at yesterday’s highs on Y108.30, then – at Y109.60. Strong resistance comes near channel line on Y110.00/05. Support remains near yesterday’s lows on Y107.70. Below losses may widen to Y106.50 and Y106.00.
|
| 31.07 10:50 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0610 Resistance 2: Chf1.0540 Resistance 1: Chf1.0520 Current price: Chf1.0466 Support 1: Chf1.0440 Support 2: Chf1.0380 Support 3: Chf1.0320 Comments: Dollar tested support at 38.2% Fibo level on Chf1.0440 (Chf1.0316 - Chf1.0520 move) and currently tries to rebound. Below correction may dip to key level on Chf1.0380 (channel support line from Jul 15) with a break under will open the way to Chf1.0320 (Jul 29 lows). Resistance is around yesterday’s highs on Chf1.0520. A bit higher there is stronger level on Chf1.0540 (upper bound of the upward channel from Jul 15). Break above will open the way to May highs on Chf1.0610.
|
| 31.07 10:42 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $2.0070 Resistance 2: $1.9980 Resistance 1: $1.9830 Current price: $1.9823 Support 1: $1.9740 Support 2: $1.9650 Support 3: $1.9580 Comments: Pound challenges minor resistance near 38.2% Fibo level on $1.9830. Stronger level is near channel line from Jul 15 on $1.9980. Break above will open the way to Jul 07 highs on $2.0070. Strong support comes at channel line from Jul 15 on $1.9740. Further target comes at Jul 22 lows on $1.9650. Key support is around trend line from Apr 2006 on $1.9580.
|
| 31.07 10:35 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.5810 Resistance 2: $1.5750 Resistance 1: $1.5640 Current price: $1.5610 Support 1: $1.5520 Support 2: $1.5460 Support 3: $1.5300 Comments: Euro refreshed session highs around $1.5610/20, where minor resistance now lie. Above there is a room for a rise up to Tuesday’s high on $1.5750. Stronger level comes at channel line from Jul 15 on $1.5810. Strong support zone remains between $1.5520/40 (channel line from Jul 15 and trend line from Dec08 2007 pass here). Break down will accelerate the decline to $1.5460 and then – to Jun lows around $1.5300.
|
| 31.07 10:16 |
EUR/USD holds near $1.5600/05, despite the strong inflation figures from EU, matching the record 4.1% rise in consumer prices |
| 31.07 10:04 |
ITALY: Preliminary July HICP, +4.1% y/y |
| 31.07 10:04 |
ITALY: CPI, preliminary, +0.5% m/m, +4.1% y/y |
| 31.07 10:03 |
EMU: June Unemployment, 7.3% |
| 31.07 10:03 |
EMU: July HICP inflation rose to a new record high of 4.1% |
| 31.07 09:43 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut,
EU/USD: $1.5680, $1.5775 USD/JPY: Y108.20, Y108.00, Y107.10, Y107.05 EUR/JPY: Y167.00 GBP/USD: $1.9750, $1.9940 AUS/USD: $0.9500 Kiwi: $0.7350, $0.7485
|
| 31.07 09:32 |
Orders:
EUR Bids: $1.5570, $1.5550, $1.5520/10 Offers: $1.5645/55
JPY Bids: Y107.70, Y107.30 Offers: Y108.30, Y108.60
GBP Bids: $1.9780, $1.9760, $1.9745
Offers: $1.9845/55, $1.9870
AUSSIE Bids: $0.9400, $0.9330 Offers: $0.9500
|
| 31.07 09:01 |
GERMAN DATA: July SA unemployment -20k m/m |
| 31.07 09:01 |
GERMAN DATA: July SA unemployment rate 7.8% |
| 31.07 09:01 |
GERMAN DATA: July SA unemployment 3.25mln |
| 31.07 08:53 |
Asian session: Euro rises against Dollar as report may show faster inflation [M]
The euro rose against the dollar, snapping
two days of losses, before data that may show regional inflation accelerated to
a 16-year high. The euro also
advanced versus the British pound on speculation the consumer price data will
increase pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. “ECB officials remain
hawkish even though the European economy is slowing,” said Satoru Ogasawara, an
economist at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo.
“Provided economic figures continue to be not so bad, strong inflation figures
will reignite expectations of a rate hike by the ECB.”
EUR/USD traded around $1.5570/90
before rising to $1.5735.
GBP/USD fell to the lows around
$1.9780 after the weak Nationwide house prices report. But the rate managed to rebound
to $1.9835.
USD/JPY held within the Y107.90/00
parameters before sliding to the lows near Y107.75. Currently dollar recovers.
The euro zone's consumer price index rose 4.1% in
July, the biggest increase since April 1992, according to a survey. The
figures are due at 09:00 GMT today. The ECB, which
aims to keep inflation just below 2%, raised its benchmark rate to 4.25% on
July 3, the highest level since 2001. ECB council member Klaus Liebscher
said on July 24 the bank has room to raise rates again even as economic growth
falters. Main focus for today will be on US data, including the
preliminary reading of 2Q GDP with a forecast of rising by 2.2% y/y after 1.0% y/y
quarter before. Also PCE price index (Q2) and Chicago PMI (July) are due to come.
|
| 31.07 08:46 |
Japan stocks closed higher
Japanese
benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's session higher across the board,
reversing weakness seen at mid-session. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was ahead by
9.02 points, or 0.07%, at 13376.81. The broader-based TOPIX was ahead by 0.63
points at 1303.62.
|
| 31.07 08:13 |
Stock market: Wednesday summary
Stock market fixing: Nikkei 225 +208.34 +1.6%
13 367.79
Topix +21.35 +1.7% 1 302.99
DAX 30 +61.32 +0.96% 6,460.12
САС 40 +80.06
+1.85% 4,400.55
FTSE 100 -40.00 -0.75% 5,312.60
Dow +186.13 +1.63% 11,583.69
Nasdaq +10.10 +0.44% 2,329.72
S&P +21.06 +1.67% 1,284.26
10YR +0.0400 +0.010% 4.048%
NYMEX Crude Oil +4.58 +3.75% 126.77
Gold -14.10 -1.52% 912.30
Japanese stocks rose the most in a week after Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. beat
profit estimates and oil dropped to a 12-week low, cutting costs for
manufacturers. Matsushita, the maker of
Panasonic-brand products, soared the most in three months after first-quarter
earnings surged on television sales. Matsushita surged 5.5%, the most since
April 30. The company said yesterday net income rose 86% to 73 billion yen
($679 million) in the three months ended June 30, beating the median estimate
of analysts. Nidec Corp., the world's biggest
maker of motors for computer hard-disk drives, posted its biggest gain in a
year as profit rose more than a third. Nidec rallied 9.9%, the sharpest jump
since July 2007, after posting a 36% gain in first-quarter profit as sales
rose. Bridgestone Corp., the world's
largest tiremaker by sales, advanced as oil retreated. Bridgestone advanced 2.2%. Meanwhile, Sony Corp., the maker of
the PlayStation 3 game console, lost 2.9% after lowering its net income
forecast by 17% as the earnings outlook weakens for its handset, television and
camera divisions.
European stocks rose the most in a week after Siemens AG, ArcelorMittal and Deutsche
Postbank AG reported better-than-estimated earnings. Siemens, Europe's
largest engineering company, had its steepest advance in four months after
orders for power plants and generator upgrades boosted profit. Siemens jumped
5.8% as net income through June 30 was 1.37 billion euros ($2.1 billion),
topping the 967 million-euro profit predicted by analysts. ArcelorMittal jumped the most since
January as earnings at the world's biggest steelmaker more than doubled. The
shares added 8.2%. Deutsche Postbank, Germany's largest consumer bank by
clients, gained after income from lending topped analysts' projections. ThyssenKrupp gained 7.8%. Merrill
Lynch lifted its recommendation on the shares to ``buy'' from ``neutral,''
saying Germany's
largest steelmaker may raise its full-year earnings forecast. In Europe,
confidence in the outlook for the
economy fell the most since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. An index
measuring sentiment in the euro area slipped to 89.5 in July, more than
economists forecast, the European Commission in Brussels said. A separate report showed
retail sales declined.
Dow surges more than 150 points as stocks get an early boost from a surprise
jobs report, a mortgage relief bill and an extension of the Fed's emergency
loan program.

The U.S. private sector added a
seasonally adjusted 9,000 jobs during the month of July, according to
Wednesday's ADP employment report. That was unexpected; economists had forecast
a 60,000-job decline. July marked a significant improvement over June's
numbers, when the private sector shed a revised 77,000 jobs.
The ADP payrolls survey came two days ahead of the more closely watched
employment report from the U.S. Labor Department, which is due out Friday.
After initially threatening to veto the bill, President Bush on Wednesday
signed a sweeping measure to offer affordable government-backed mortgages to
homeowners at risk of foreclosure. The law will also bolster
government-sponsored mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a
temporary rescue plan and stricter regulation. Congress approved the bill last
week.
The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it is extending its emergency borrowing
program to assist Wall Street banks with liquidity during the credit crisis.
The plan was extended until Jan. 30. The U.S. central bank originally said
the plan, which began in March, would end in mid-September.
GPS navigation device maker Garmin reported quarterly earnings Wednesday that
rose 20%, but the company offered tepid guidance.
|
| 31.07 08:00 |
FOREX. Wednesday summary
The dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro after a private report showed U.S.
companies unexpectedly added jobs. The U.S. dollar strengthened versus the euro
as ADP Employer Services reported that companies added 9,000 jobs in July after
cutting a revised 77,000 positions in the previous month. The median forecast
of 29 economists was for a reduction of 60,000 jobs. The Labor Department will probably
report on Aug. 1 that non-farm payrolls
dropped by 75,000 this month following a decline of 62,000 in June, according
to the median forecast. The U.S.
payroll report, which includes government hiring, has shown a reduction in jobs
each month this year, while ADP has recorded only two declines. The dollar pared its gain versus the euro after an Energy Department report showing an unexpected
decline in gasoline inventories pushed oil prices higher. Crude oil rose to $122.50 a barrel
on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Federal Reserve extended its
emergency lending programs to Wall Street firms through January after policy
makers judged that markets are still too weak to operate without a backstop
from the central bank.

EUR/USD fell to $1.5559, where losses were
capped by bids ahead of $1.5550. Rate managed to recover to $1.5614 but then
back off to $1.5580 and $1.5520. At the end of NY trading bids helped the euro
to rebound to $1.5600. GBP/USD declined to $1.9770 before rebounding
to $1.9800 and later fell to session lows on $1.9840. Further pound recovered to
$1.9780 and closed the day above $1.9800. USD/JPY printed lows below Y108.00 – at Y107.70.
Bids helped the dollar to lift up to Y108.20/30, where offers capped the rise. Later
rate set stable between the Y108.00/20 zone.
At 09:00 GMTItaly
and Eurozone will release their inflation reports. Main focus for today will be on US data, including the
preliminary reading of 2Q GDP with a forecast of rising by 2.2% y/y after 1.0% y/y
quarter before. Also PCE price index (Q2) and Chicago PMI (July) are due to
come.
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| 31.07 07:57 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y110.00 Resistance 2: Y109.60 Resistance 1: Y108.30 Current price: Y107.91 Support 1: Y107.70 Support 2: Y106.50 Support 3: Y106.00 Comments: Dollar resumes support mentioned near yesterday’s lows on Y107.70. Below losses may widen to Y106.50 and Y106.00. Strong resistance comes at yesterday’s highs on Y108.30, then – at Y109.60. Strong resistance comes near channel line on Y110.00/05.
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| 31.07 07:24 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0610 Resistance 2: Chf1.0540 Resistance 1: Chf1.0520 Current price: Chf1.0455 Support 1: Chf1.0440 Support 2: Chf1.0380 Support 3: Chf1.0320 Comments: Dollar is under pressure again with support comes at 38.2% Fibo level on Chf1.0440 (Chf1.0316 - Chf1.0520 move). Below correction may dip to key level on Chf1.0380 (channel support line from Jul 15) with a break under will open the way to Chf1.0320 (Jul 29 lows). Resistance is around yesterday’s highs on Chf1.0520. A bit higher there is stronger level on Chf1.0540 (upper bound of the upward channel from Jul 15). Break above will open the way to May highs on Chf1.0610.
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| 31.07 07:05 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $2.0070 Resistance 2: $1.9980 Resistance 1: $1.9830 Current price: $1.9796 Support 1: $1.9740 Support 2: $1.9650 Support 3: $1.9580 Comments: Techs on pound hasn’t changed much, despite the weak Nationwide house price data. Strong support comes at channel line from Jul 15 on $1.9740. Further target comes at Jul 22 lows on $1.9650. Key support is around trend line from Apr 2006 on $1.9580. Minor resistance is mentioned near 38.2% Fibo level on $1.9830. Stronger level is near channel line from Jul 15 on $1.9980. Break above will open the way to Jul 07 highs on $2.0070.
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| 31.07 07:02 |
GERMANY: June ILO unemployment, -40,000 to 3.17 mln |
| 31.07 07:02 |
GERMANY: June SA ILO unemployment rate, 7.3% after 7.4% in May |
| 31.07 07:00 |
UK: Nationwide: July House Prices -1.7% m/m; -8.1% y/y |
| 31.07 07:00 |
GERMANY: June SA employment, +10,000 to 40.216 mln |
| 31.07 06:57 |
UK, median estimate on Nationwide house price data: -1.1% m/m, -7.3% y/y |
| 31.07 06:45 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.5810 Resistance 2: $1.5750 Resistance 1: $1.5620 Current price: $1.5583 Support 1: $1.5520 Support 2: $1.5460 Support 3: $1.5300 Comments: Euro rangebound again after it failed to break under the strong support zone between $1.5520/40 (yesterday’s lows, channel line from Jul 15 and trend line from Dec08 2007 pass here). Break down will accelerate the decline to $1.5460 and then – to Jun lows around $1.5300. Minor resistance is near yesterday’s highs on $1.5610/20. Above there is a room for a rise up to Tuesday’s high on $1.5750. Stronger level comes at channel line from Jul 15 on $1.5810.
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| 31.07 06:35 |
Major European bourses are initially seen trading flat to modestly higher Thursday: the FTSE up 13, the DAX unchanged, the CAC up 10 and the Eurostoxx 50 up 5 |
| 31.07 06:19 |
Daily History for July 30, 2008
High Low Close EUR/USD 1.5616 1.5518 1.5576 USD/JPY 108.33 107.69 108.05 GBP/USD 1.9842 1.9743 1.9813 USD/CHF 1.0520 1.0438 1.0482
EUR/JPY 168.61 167.92 168.32 EUR/GBP 0.7877 0.7847 0.7859 GBP/JPY 214.37 213.23 214.11 GBP/CHF 2.0788 2.0670 2.0768
Change % Change Last Nikkei 225 +208.34 +1.6% 13 367.79 Topix +21.35 +1.7% 1 302.99 DAX 30 +61.32 +0.96% 6,460.12 САС 40 +80.06 +1.85% 4,400.55 FTSE 100 -40.00 -0.75% 5,312.60 Dow +186.13 +1.63% 11,583.69 Nasdaq +10.10 +0.44% 2,329.72 S&P +21.06 +1.67% 1,284.26 10YR +0.0400 +0.010% 4.048% NYMEX Crude Oil +4.58 +3.75% 126.77 Gold -14.10 -1.52% 912.30
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| 31.07 05:59 |
Schedule for today, Thursday, July 31, 2008
05:00 Japan Housing starts (June) Y/Y - -6.5% 05:00 Japan Construction orders (June) Y/Y - -25.2% 06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (July) -1.1% -0.9% 06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (July) Y/Y -7.3% -6.3% 06:00 Germany Wholesale sales (July) real adjusted - -0.9% 06:00 Germany Wholesale sales (July) real adjusted Y/Y - -0.8% 07:55 Germany Unemployment (July) seasonally adjusted -16K -38K 07:55 Germany Unemployment (July) seasonally adjusted, mln - 3.266 07:55 Germany Unemployment rate (July) seasonally adjusted 7.8% 7.8% 07:55 Germany Unemployment (July) seasonally unadjusted, mln - 3.159 07:55 Germany Unemployment rate (July) seasonally unadjusted - 7.5% 09:00 Italy CPI (July) preliminary - 0.4% 09:00 Italy CPI (July) preliminary Y/Y 4.0% 3.8% 09:00 Italy HICP (July) preliminary Y/Y - 4.0% 09:00 EU(15) Harmonized CPI (July) Y/Y preliminary 4.1% 4.0% 09:00 EU(15) Unemployment (June) 7.2% 7.2% 12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 26.07) 382K 406K 12:30 USA GDP (Q2) advance Y/Y 2.2% 1.0% 12:30 USA PCE price index (Q2) advance - 3.6% 12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q2) advance - 2.3% 12:30 USA Employment cost index (Q2) 0.7% 0.7% 13:45 USA Chicago PMI (July) 49.7 49.6 20:30 USA M2 money supply (21.07), bln - +0.3
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