|
|
| 28.04 18:56 |
MS on Fed
"We now think that the Fed this week will lower the funds rate by 25 bp
to 2% - the trough in rates for this cycle. Previously, we thought that
the trough would be at 1.75%. The difference reflects our and likely
the Fed's sense that upside risks to inflation are now nearly as
important as the downside risks to growth."
|
| 28.04 18:54 |
June NYMEX crude contract sliding late in the session, paring gains to just $0.23 at $118.75. |
| 28.04 18:40 |
Dow +33.14 at 12926.73, Nasdaq +11.14 at 2434.33, S&P +3.77 at 1401.58
The major indices are trading slightly below their best levels of the
session. The Nasdaq is outperforming, despite a 0.4% drop in tech
stocks.
The Nasdaq 100 (+0.8%) is getting a boost from Research In Motion (RIMM
123.07, +3.03) -- which is not included in the tech sector because it
is a Canadian company. Meanwhile, biotech firm Gilead Sciences (GILD
52.69, +1.29) is also posting a solid gain.
|
| 28.04 18:16 |
DB on Fed policy
"The Fed is likely to validate market expectations, and more
importantly staff concerns about downside risks to economic growth, by
cutting rates another 25 bps... In response to the recent shift in
market expectations, which have been driven to some extent by inflation
concerns, we expect the Fed to cut 25 bps at the June meeting. To be
sure, negative Q1 final sales will worry the Fed staff that its weak
first half scenario is still playing out and that a negative feedback
loop involving housing, financial asset prices and consumption remains
a serious risk." But Fed could mention inflation/commodities risk.
|
| 28.04 17:59 |
Dow +27.03 at 12918.89, Nasdaq +8.90 at 2431.83, S&P +2.16 at 1400.00
Telecom (+0.8%) is the session's best performing economic sector,
gaining support from Verizon (VZ 38.00, +0.96). Earlier this morning
Verizon reported sales and earnings per share results that matched
analysts' expectations for the most recent quarter. Shares of VZ are
trading near their best level of the session.
Energy (-0.3%) is now trading in negative ground after spending the
majority of the session in positive territory. No clear impetus for
the change is apparent. Oil continues to trade near $119 per barrel.
Exxon-Mobil (XOM 92.97, +0.51) and Wrigley (WWY 76.94, +14.49) are the
most influential leaders. Microsoft (MSFT 29.08, -0.75) and Monsanto
(MON 121.92, -3.56) are the most influential laggards.
|
| 28.04 17:38 |
June NYMEX crude contract edging higher again, is up $0.62 at $119.14 after posting earlier life high at $119.93 |
| 28.04 17:22 |
HSBC analysts look for GDP to rise by 1.0%.
"We
suspect some upside surprise potential may come from inventories, which
we think might rise a bit (+$3bn), which would add 0.7 ppts to growth,"
HSBC economists say.
|
| 28.04 17:10 |
Dow +20.44 at 12913.68, Nasdaq +4.66 at 2427.46, S&P +1.96 at 1399.80 |
| 28.04 16:51 |
American focus: dollar holds on
The
dollar was little changed against the euro amid speculation the Federal
Reserve will signal at its meeting this week that it's close to ending
cuts in borrowing costs. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an
18 percent chance that
the Fed will hold the target rate for overnight lending between banks
at 2.25 percent at its April 30 meeting, compared with 6 percent odds a
week ago. The balance of bets is for a reduction of a
quarter-percentage point.
The U.S. currency rose 1.2 percent versus the euro last week, the most
since mid-March, as traders began to price out additional Fed rate
reductions and growth in Europe showed signs of a slowdown.
``The euro's strength versus the dollar may be running out of steam,''
wrote London-based strategists Bilal Hafeez and George Saravelos at
Deutsche Bank AG in a report released April 25. ``The Fed meeting next
week may confirm the U.S. rate cycle is close to bottoming out.''
The 15-nation currency will fall to $1.45 by the end of the year,
according to Deutsche Bank, the world's largest currency trader. The
euro has risen 14 percent against the dollar in the past year and
touched the record high of $1.6019 on April 22.
The Australian, Norwegian and New Zealand currencies increased against
the dollar and yen after crude oil rallied to a record high of $119.93
a barrel.
|
| 28.04 16:31 |
Dow +6.27 at 12898.38, Nasdaq +4.76 at 2427.21, S&P +1.12 at 1398.96 |
| 28.04 16:10 |
Stocks try to rise
Stocks inched higher Monday morning, as investors welcomed Mars' $23 billion buyout of Wrigley and Verizon's earnings. But gains were limited amid record oil and gas prices at the start of a busy week on Wall Street.
Telecom giant and Dow component Verizon Communications reported higher
quarterly earnings that met analysts' estimates on higher revenue that
was short of expectations. Shares gained 2.5% in the morning.
In other earnings news, RadioShack (RSH) reported lower quarterly earnings and sales that nonetheless topped forecasts. Shares slumped 11%.
U.S. light crude oil for
June delivery touched a record $119.93 in electronic trading before
pulling back to trade at $118.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange.
COMEX gold for June delivery rose $1.80 to $891.50 an ounce.
Treasury prices crept higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.85% from 3.87% late Friday.
|
| 28.04 15:45 |
GERMANY: Preliminary harmonized inflation in April was -0.3% on the month and +2.6% on the year after +3.3% y/y in March
preliminary CPI fell 0.2% on the month and rose 2.4% on the year after +3.1%.
|
| 28.04 15:38 |
Dow +4.81 at 12897.72, Nasdaq +4.09 at 2427.02, S&P +1.64 at 1399.72
The S&P 500 climbed to session highs, but ran into resistance near
the 1400 level -- which is considered a key level of resistance by
technical analysts. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading with a
slight gain, slightly below 1400.
Shares of Ford (F
8.19, +0.69) are seeing a healthy 9% rise. The buying interest is being
fueled on word activist investor Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp is
increasing his 4.7% stake in Ford to 5.7%, according to the Wall Street
Journal. He will be purchasing another 20 million shares at a 13%
premium. Ford's stock has had a wild ride the last few sessions. Last
Thursday, shares rose 12% on a better than expected earnings report,
only to fall 11% the following day on several brokerage downgrades.
|
| 28.04 15:16 |
GBP/USD keeps positive mood
Holding
on to gains made earlier in the day, with cable demand having come from
a variety of sources in the European morning, notably with
sterling-Canada demand and euro-sterling supply, the latter said to
have come from a French name. Cable offers now seen into $1.9940, more
at $1.9970, said to be stronger at $2.0020 with stops above.
|
| 28.04 14:57 |
Dow -1.38 at 12890.64, Nasdaq +2.10 at 2425.03, S&P +1.25 at 1399.09
The stock market is posting a slight gain, but has yet to veer far
from the unchanged mark. The action has been muted this session, with
the S&P 500 up 0.2% at its peak, and down 0.3% at its trough.
Visa (V 76.48, +1.38) is showing some notable strength. The credit
card transaction processor was initiated at several brokerages,
including a Buy at UBS and a Overweight at JPMorgan. Visa has now
soared 74% since its March 19 initial public offering. However, its
stock does not have a direct impact on the S&P 500 -- because it is
a new IPO, it is not yet included in the index. Visa reports earnings
after the close today.
|
| 28.04 14:33 |
Analysts at Citi expect FOMC will lower the funds rate by 25bp to 2% |
| 28.04 14:23 |
Dow +1.87 at 12894.96, Nasdaq +1.05 at 2424.11, S&P +0.06 at 1397.90
The stock market retreats a bit, holding near the
unchanged mark. Five of the ten economic sectors in positive territory.Energy (+0.4%) and healthcare (+0.6%) are the
best-performing sector in the early-going. The two most heavily weighted
sectors -- financials (-0.7%) and tech (-0.5%) -- are acting as drags on the
broader market.
|
| 28.04 14:10 |
USD/JPY looks optimistic
USD/JPY trading with a buoyant tone.
Large M&A demand for GBP/JPY lifted the pair back up, with a break of
C$1.0160 now seen opening up a steeper move towards offers at C$1.0210/15.
Support at C$1.0040.
|
| 28.04 14:02 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut
EUR/USD: $1.5600, $1.5700, $1.5900, $1.5430 USD/JPY: Y103.80, Y103.00 GBP/USD: $1.9745 AUS/USD: $0.9170
|
| 28.04 13:40 |
JPMorgan Chase: Euro resumes the move to $1.60
“We expect the euro
to resume the move to $1.60 this quarter,” wrote Jan Loeys, JPMorgan Chase
& Co. “With the Federal Reserve unable to tighten and the ECB unwilling to
ease, the euro should resume its uptrend against the dollar.”
|
| 28.04 13:25 |
Before the bell: Blue chips set to push higher
Stocks futures rose early Monday as investors
eyed a $23 billion deal for chewing gum giant Wrigley, an investor's $170
million bid for more shares of Ford, and turned their focus to this week's
Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are expecting the Fed to
lower rates yet again at the end of its two-day meeting on
Wednesday. Many economists expect the central bank will hold rates steady after
that cut in a bid to keep inflation in check. A slew of high-profile economic
reports will come out this week, although no readings are due on Monday.
Tuesday brings a report on consumer confidence. Inflation will be on the minds
of investors when the personal and income spending report is released Thursday,
and Friday brings the government's monthly jobs report. Oil prices hit another record
trading high near $120 a barrel after a refinery strike in the U.K. Company news. In major
deal news, Mars and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reached a deal to buy
chewing gum giant Wm. Wrigley Jr. for about $23 billion. Shares of
automaker Ford soared in pre-market trading after billionaire investor Kirk
Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. said it would make a bid for 20 million shares
valued at $170 million. Verizon
posted first-quarter earnings results that met Wall Street's expectations.
|
| 28.04 13:14 |
US, Warren Buffett: When GDP is less than 1.00% a year, it is really going down further |
| 28.04 12:53 |
Wall Street: Futures holding modest gains with Dow futures are up 26 points while Nasdaq futures are ahead by 7 |
| 28.04 12:34 |
ECB LIEBSCHER: Only IMF sees room for ECB to ease policy
1.Must do what is needed to avoid second-round effects 2.Very, very concerned about inflation outlook 3.Inflation won't decsend as far as thought a few months ago 4.Must prevent further rise of inflation 5.ECB also looks at growth
|
| 28.04 12:18 |
European session: Euro rises versus Dollar, Yen on rate outlook [M]
The euro rose against the dollar after an
industry report showed German consumer confidence unexpectedly rose and
European Central Bank policy makers suggested interest rates need to stay high
to quell inflation.
The euro snapped a three-day decline and also
gained versus the yen and the British pound after ECB President Jean-Claude
Trichet said rates at a six-year high will help policy makers achieve price
stability. The currency was buoyed as oil climbed to a record $119.93 a barrel.
Concern about inflation prompted the
ECB to keep borrowing costs at 4% since June, while traders are betting the Fed
is set to cut rates one more time to bolster an economy weakened by the worst
housing slump in a quarter of a century. The Fed has slashed rates by 3% since
September.
EUR/USD opened around
$1.5661. Later rate overcame reported resistance at $1.5670, with rate able to
push on to $1.5680. Weaker Saxony CPI knocked euro-dollar to $1.5615. Offers
and lge exp $1.5700, stops above $1.5705/10, bids $1.5600/.5590.
GBP/USD opened at $1.9838
before cable eased to fresh lows for the day at $1.9783. Cable soon recovered
back above $1.9800 (to $1.9930), seeing strong buying. Cable offers $1.9910,
stronger $1.9950/70, bids $1.9780.
USD/JPY opened around
Y104.60, holding within the Y104.30/80 range. Dollar-yen offers Y104.80/00,
possible barrier Y105.00, stops above. Bids Y104.35/30, Y104.00/103.90, stops
below.
The dollar may extend
losses before U.S.
data forecast to show the economy grew at the slowest pace in five years. Gross
domestic product expanded at a 0.4% annual pace in the first quarter, according
to a survey. Non-farm payrolls, due Friday, fell by 78,000 in April and the
jobless rate rose to 5.2%.
|
| 28.04 12:00 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut
EUR/USD: $1.5600, $1.5700, $1.5900, $1.5430 USD/JPY: Y103.80, Y103.00 GBP/USD: $1.9745 AUS/USD: $0.9170
|
| 28.04 11:46 |
EU ALMUNIA: Hopes EMU HICP will start slowing in Q2 2008
1.EMU GDP expected to pick up after Q2 2008 2.High euro has shielded EMU from high oil prices 3.We are suffering a very strong inflationary shock 4.Monpol has limited impact on market turmoil
|
| 28.04 11:26 |
ECB, JUNCKER: Euro speaks for the good fundamental data in the eurozone
1.Advantages to the strength of the euro. 2.Strong euro dampens oil price hikes. 3.Concerned about excessive volatility in FX.
|
| 28.04 11:06 |
European focus: Euro under pressure after soft German state CPI data [M]
The euro came under pressure after four German states reported monthly
falls in the rate of inflation, boosting expectations that pricing pressures in
the euro zone's largest economy may be starting to subside. Saxony, Brandeburg and Hesse reported
their consumer price indexes (CPI) fell 0.2%. Analysts said the results
indicate that the annual rate of German inflation is now likely to come in
below market expectations and be well below March's 3.3%. If Germany's
annual inflation rate does post a significant drop it will boost expectations
that the flash estimate for the whole euro zone, out Wednesday, will also be
below the market consensus, heaping more pressure on the euro. The euro has fallen from an
all-time high of $1.6018
last Tuesday. While analysts said technical trading levels may prevent it from
falling dramatically, this week's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision could well
put it under further pressure. The central bank is expected
to cut its the key Fed funds rate by a quarter point but many analysts believe its accompanying statement
could signal an end to the current cycle of aggressive rate cutting. “The accompanying Fed statement will likely signal willingness for a pause
soon and offer further support for the greenback,” said UBS currency analyst
Geoffrey Yu. While U.S.
data still points to an economic slowdown, financial
markets have been performing relatively well with the S&P 500 rallying
by 11 percent since Mid-March. So the wider question now is whether this
recovery can be sustained, and in turn help the real economy to turn the
corner.
|
| 28.04 10:52 |
ECB HURLEY: Food, energy have had big impact on inflation
1.Would expect inflation to moderate in course of 2009 2.Will look at inflation numbers again next meeting 3.Made our position very clear at last council meeting.
|
| 28.04 10:38 |
EU Commission: Hikes 2008 EMU HICP fcast to 3.2% vs. previous 2.6%
1.Hikes 2009 EMU HICP forecast to 2.2% vs. previous 2.0% 2.Cuts 2008 EMU GDP forecast to 1.7% vs. previous 1.8% 3.Cuts 2009 EMU GDP forecast to 1.5% vs. previous 2.1% 4.Further euro appreciation would weign on EMU GDP 5.No strong sign yet of credit squeeze in euro area 6.Germany 2008 GDP +1.8% (vs. 1.6%), HICP 2.9% (vs. 2.3%) 7.Germany 2009 GDP +1.5% (vs. 2.2%), HICP 1.8% (unchanged) 8.Assumes 2008 oil price of $101.20 9.Assumes 2008 euro-dollar rate of $1.55, 2009 rate of $1.57
|
| 28.04 10:24 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y106.00 Resistance 2: Y105.30 Resistance 1: Y104.80 Current price: Y104.51 Support 1: Y103.90 Support 2: Y103.30 Support 3: Y102.60 Comments: Dollar is around recent highs on Y104.80 with resistance comes at Y105.30 and then – on Y106.00. Support is around Y103.90, further – on Thursday’s low on Y103.30 with a break under will open the way to Apr 22-23 lows on Y102.60/70.
|
| 28.04 10:06 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0540 Resistance 2: Chf1.0480 Resistance 1: Chf1.0430 Current price: Chf1.0304 Support 1: Chf1.0300 Support 2: Chf1.0150 Support 3: Chf1.0000 Comments: Dollar tests Friday’s low on Chf1.0300. Below Thursday’s low at Chf1.0150 the rate may dip to Chf1.0000. Strong resistance is around Friday’s high on Chf1.0430 with a break above will extend rise up to Chf1.0480. Stronger resistance is near Fibo level on Chf1.0540 (61.8% of Chf1.1110 - Chf0.9640 decline).
|
| 28.04 09:52 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $2.0030 Resistance 2: $1.9970 Resistance 1: $1.9890 Current price: $1.9886 Support 1: $1.9800 Support 2: $1.9760 Support 3: $1.9670 Comments: Pound challenges Friday’s high on $1.9890 with a break above will target $1.9970 (Apr 23 high) and stronger level on $2.0030 (Apr 21 high). Strong support comes at $1.9800, with a break under widens the correction to $1.9760 and then – to Friday’s low on $1.9670.
|
| 28.04 09:43 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.6020 Resistance 2: $1.5880 Resistance 1: $1.5700 Current price: $1.5672 Support 1: $1.5550 Support 2: $1.5500 Support 3: $1.5420 Comments: Euro tries to rebound, but moves still limited. Resistance is around Friday’s highs at $1.5700. Stronger resistance is near $1.5880. Key level is around life-time high on $1.6015/20. Support comes at Friday’s low on $1.5550 with further losses near $1.5500 and below – on $1.5420.
|
| 28.04 09:29 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut
EUR/USD: $1.5600, $1.5700, $1.5900, $1.5430 USD/JPY: Y103.80, Y103.00 GBP/USD: $1.9745 AUS/USD: $0.9170
|
| 28.04 09:13 |
The new week will show....
US
data next week is heavy with important data, not the least of which is
the FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday afternoon. rate decision is the
highlight in the
early part of the week. Fed is still widely expected to cut rates by
25bps to 2.00% even though interest rate futures are starting to price
in some 20% odds of no cut. The focus is indeed very much of the
accompany statement on any change in languages that would signal that
Fed is near to a pause.Right before the FOMC announcement on Wed's Q1 GDP will be released
and is expected to show 0.4% annualized growth, down from Q4's 0.6%.
Personal consumption growth is expected to slow sharply from 2.3% to
0.6%. ISM manufacturing index will provide the next test to dollar on
Thursday and is expected to remain under 50 and drop slightly to 48.0.
Non-farm payroll will conclude the week and is expected to show -75k
contraction in Apr with unemployment rate climbing further from 5.1% to
5.2%. The expectations are indeed quite low which leaves little room
for downside surprises.Other data to be watched from US include Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, PCE, construction spending,From Eurozone focus will be on April HICP flash , unemployment rate,
economic sentiments, German Gfk consumer sentiments & retail sales.From UK, manufacturing PMI, will be closely watched and is expected to deteriorate from 51.3 to 50.8. gfk consumer confidence.From Swiss, KOF leading indictor will be featured.BoJ will meet again this week and is widely expected to leave rates
unchanged at 0.50%. Other data from Japan include retail sales,
manufacturing PMI, house household spending, unemployment rate,
industrial production, construction order and housing starts,From Canadian Feb GDP and March PPI will be released.
Australian retail sales will also be paid attention to whch is expected
to show 0.3% mom growth in Mar.
|
| 28.04 08:55 |
TRICHET: Reported comments from ECB head
- Forex rate is very important
- Have been at times sharp fluctuations between major currencies.
- We are concerned about possible implications for stability of forex moves.
|
| 28.04 08:44 |
ECB'S MERSCH: comments
The impact of financial market turmoil on eurozone growth is
"marginal, ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch wrote in the
editorial of Central Bank of Luxembourg's Financial Stability Review.
He said the international system is capable of absorbing losses from
the financial turmoil. Uncertainty about ECB growth prospects is
"unusually high," Mersch wrote. Risks to growth are on the downside
while inflation risks are on the upside, he wrote. He said eurozone
economic fundamentals are healthy with no major imbalances
|
| 28.04 08:32 |
USD/JPY is holding bounded:
Holding in the middle of the day's range, dollar-yen havingpressed to
two-month highs on Asia at Y104.82. Traders suggest themarket is now
consolidating ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, adding exporter supply
on approach to Y105.00 is stalling further gains. StrongToushin demand
for this week is cushioning, though traders do note thTokyo holiday
tomorrow will reduce liquidity. Stops in place aboveY105.00, with
offers then noted at Y105.40/50 ahead of barrier supply onapproach to
Y106.00. Bids are at Y104.40 and Y104.00/103.90 with stops below.
|
| 28.04 08:18 |
Nomura Trust and Banking Co. Ltd.: The dollar may fall to $1.60 per euro this week. |
| 28.04 08:04 |
EU bourses firm:
European equity bourses are firmer in early Monday morning session,
with gains led by banking stocks on improved sentiment following
reports of further rights issues from banks -- HBOS and Deutsche Bank
in the frame, according to press reports. Oil Stocks are also bid on
back of firmer crude oil prices which hit fresh record highs overnight
near $120.00/barrel on supply worries and increased tensions with
US/Iran in the Gulf. The Dax is up 0.57% with Cac up 0.65% and FTSE 100
gaining 0.66%
|
| 28.04 07:45 |
Lehman Brothers:
"With inflation concerns having increased, the Fed may soon join the
ECB in keeping rates on hold...The Fed is likely to cut rates at a
slower pace and the tax rebates give the Fed scope to pause this
summer, but we judge the easing cycle to be far from over."
|
| 28.04 07:30 |
ECB TRICHET: Current ECB monetary policy will help achieve price stability
-Confident ECB will succeed in maintaining price stability
-Present circumstances are very demanding; no room for complacency
-Monetary stability harder if government borrowing is unbridled
-ECB's commitment to price stability is of the essence
|
| 28.04 07:18 |
Asian session: Yen Falls as Commodity Rally Boosts Higher-Yielding Currencies [M]
The yen fell against the Canadian
dollar and the Norwegian krone as gains in commodity prices encouraged
investors to increase holdings of higher-yielding currencies funded in Japan.
The yen approached a two-month low
against the Australian dollar as oil rose to a record and gold climbed for a
second day. Japan's
currency also weakened against the euro and the U.S. dollar before financial
companies sell 715 billion yen ($6.8 billion) of mutual funds this week focused
on overseas stocks and bonds, according to Bloomberg data.
Bank of America Corp. recommended
investors buy the euro at $1.5630 with a target of $1.6250 and sell the
currency should it close below $1.5342 for two consecutive days.
The second-largest U.S. bank has
pushed back its forecast for the timing of the European Central Bank
interest-rate cuts from September to October amid inflation worries.
EUR/USD firmed from $1.5590 to $1.5640.
GBP/USD traded within $1.9810/40
USD/JPY rose from Y104.40 to a high at Y104.80 before slipping back
Gains in the dollar may be limited
before U.S.
data this week forecast to show the economy expanded at the slowest pace in
five years. U.S.
gross domestic product grew at a 0.4 percent annual pace in the first quarter,
according to surveys. The Commerce Department will release the data
on April 30.
Non-farm payrolls, due from the
Labor Department on May 2, fell by 78,000 in April and the jobless rate rose to
5.2 percent this month, according to separate surveys.
Futures on
the Chicago Board of Trade show there's a 78 percent chance the Federal Reserve
will lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent on
April 30. The balance of bets is on no change in borrowing costs.
|
| 28.04 07:04 |
Japans stocks close mix
Most
Japanese stocks rose, led by financial companies, as accelerating inflation
boosted speculation lending rates will widen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
Inc. headed for the biggest gain in more than four years, while Aiful Corp. jumped
to a three-month high. The Topix index rose 10.20, or 0.8%, to 1,350.11. The
Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 57.72, or 0.4% 13,805.75.
|
| 28.04 06:54 |
COMMODITIES: weekly review
Crude oil rose last week on
BP Plc's plans to shut down a North Sea pipeline, plunging Nigerian
output and after a ship carrying U.S. cargo fired warning shots at
Iranian boats. BP said it would shut the Forties Pipeline System
tomorrow because of a two-day strike at a refinery in Scotland. BP will
start shutting down the Forties pipeline, which carries about 700,000
barrels a day from more than 50 North Sea oil fields, because of the
strike that will start April 27 at Ineos Group Holdings Plc's
Grangemouth refinery. The pipeline relies on steam and power provided
by the refinery complex.
Nigeria has lost about half of its oil production amid
a strike and rebel attacks, Petroleum Minister of State H. Odein
Ajumogobia said today in an interview with Bloomberg News. About 90
percent of Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Nigerian output of about 850,000 barrels
a day is halted. Recent attacks on Royal Dutch Shell Plc-run pipelines
are cutting crude-oil flows by about 140,000 barrels a day.
Prices jumped after a
report that a U.S.-contracted cargo ship fired at Iranian boats in the
Persian Gulf. Iran, OPEC's second-biggest oil producer, has been in
conflict with the U.S. over its nuclear program and Iraq policy.
 Crude oil settled
at $118.52 a barrel. Futures touched $119.55 Friday. The June contract
rose 2% last week. Prices are 80% higher than a year ago. Brent crude
for June settlement rose to $116.34 a barrel. The contract touched a
record $117.56 Friday. Oil in New York reached a record $119.90 a
barrel on April 22 after the dollar touched an all-time low against the
euro. Gold retreated amid dollar’s rally, that has cut the precious metal’s investment attractiveness. Gold was down 2.8% last week (at $886.0). Copper rose,
gaining for the first week in three as inventories of the metal fell
and strikes in Chile revived speculation that output will diminish.
Employees at Codelco's El Teniente mine in Chile walked off their jobs
to protest insecure conditions created by striking contract workers,
radio station Cooperativa said. Employees of contractors hired by
state-owned Codelco began a strike at three of the company's four mines
last week. Copper stockpiles fell. Codelco shut El Teniente again
yesterday after two employees were injured as they tried to get to
work. Codelco Norte, the largest of the company's mines, hasn't been
affected by the strike, a company spokeswoman said. In a bid to end the
walkout, Codelco may hire 1,500 contract workers, Francisco Vidal, a
government spokesman and cabinet minister, told. On the LME, copper
gained to $8,575 a metric ton. The metal is up 9.1% in the past 12
months.
|
| 28.04 06:37 |
FOREX: weekly review
The dollar posted the biggest two- day advance against the euro since
December as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve will stop
cutting interest rates while the European economy showed signs of a slowdown. The euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar
after a European Central Bank report showed money supply growth slowed
more than economists forecast last month. The Australian and New
Zealand dollars dropped against all of the major currencies as lower
commodity prices dimmed the outlook for growth.
``We have
gone from a situation where the market was excessively pessimistic
about the U.S. to perhaps a little bit complacent about what comes
next, and that has benefited the dollar,'' said Robert Sinche, head of
global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``At the
same time, we're seeing data in Europe looking less robust.'' The
dollar touched $1.5555 Friday, the highest since April 3. The dollar
was little changed at 104.20 yen, compared with 104.26. The euro
dropped 0.3 percent to 162.96 yen, from 163.45. The U.S.
currency has increased 1.6 percent versus the euro in two days after
hitting a record low of $1.6019 per euro on April 22. It's up 1.4
percent against the euro since April 18, the biggest weekly gain since
March. The dollar is 0.6 percent higher versus the yen, for its second
week of gains. The euro has dropped 0.6 against the yen. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 30 percent chance that the
Fed will hold the target rate for overnight lending between banks at
2.25 percent, compared with 2 percent odds a week ago. There's a 70
percent chance policy makers will cut by a quarter-percentage point.
``The Fed may be done cutting rates after next week, and that's put a
floor under the dollar,'' said Jeremy Stretch, senior market strategist
at Rabobank International, the third- largest Dutch bank. ``There's
also a realization the economic momentum in the euro area is waning.''
The dollar may strengthen to $1.5550 in the next week, Stretch
predicted. The yen appreciated versus the euro Friday after
a government report showed Japan's core consumer prices increased 1.2
percent in March from a year earlier, the most in a decade. Japan's
five-year notes had their biggest slump in almost nine years as traders
increased speculation that the Bank of Japan will increase its 0.5
percent target lending rate this year. The Australian dollar fell 0.8 percent to 93.18 U.S. cents, pushing its two-day drop to almost 1.8 percent, while the New Zealand dollar declined 0.7
percent to 78.24 U.S. cents. A stronger U.S. dollar eroded demand for
precious metals used to hedge against losses in the greenback. Gold for
immediate delivery headed for a weekly drop of 2 percent, trading at
$892.10 an ounce.
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| 28.04 06:21 |
STOCKS: weekly review
U.S.
stocks posted the first back- to-back weekly gains since February after
earnings at Boeing Co. and Philip Morris International Inc. bolstered
speculation overseas growth will offset slower domestic demand. Boeing, the
world's second-biggest maker of jetliners, rose the most in the Dow
Jones Industrial Average. Philip Morris International, the cigarette
maker spun off from Altria Group Inc. last month, topped profit
estimates by 15 percent. Among 263 companies in the Standard &
Poor's 500 Index that have reported first-quarter results, 73 percent
beat or matched the average estimate of analysts.
The market held its ground in the midst of oil prices reaching a new
record high of $119.90 per barrel, new home sales for March declining
8.5% to a near 17-year low, and Microsoft (MSFT)
dropping 6% on Friday after reporting results and providing guidance
that failed to live up to investors' bullish expectations.
In brief, it was another week where the inclination was to look at
things as half full rather than half empty. Whether that view persists
is hard to say, but it will no doubt be tested in the week ahead, which
is chock full of important happenings that include earnings reports
from over 100 S&P 500 members, an FOMC meeting and a batch of
influential economic data that includes the advanced read for Q1 GDP,
personal income and spending, the ISM Index and the April employment
report. In one of the best indications of how sentiment has improved of
late, the market all but looked past a dreadful earnings report from
bond insurer Ambac Financial (ABK).
On Wednesday Ambac posted a first quarter loss of $6.93 per share,
well below the consensus estimate for a loss of $1.51 per share. While
Ambac's stock got clobbered in understandable fashion, the S&P 500
still recorded a gain of approximately four points - and that was also
with package delivery company UPS (UPS) lowering its full-year guidance the same day.
A few months ago news like that from Ambac, combined with the disappointing earnings report from Bank of America
(BAC) on Monday, would have dealt a punishing blow to the financial
sector. That didn't happen. The financial sector dipped 0.8% on
Wednesday but still ended the week up 2.1%, which followed a 5.2% gain
in the prior week.
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| 28.04 06:09 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y106.00 Resistance 2: Y105.30 Resistance 1: Y104.80 Current price: Y104.48 Support 1: Y103.90 Support 2: Y103.30 Support 3: Y102.60 Comments: Dollar is around recent highs on Y104.80 with resistance comes at Y105.30 and then – on Y106.00. Support is around Y103.90, further – on Thursday’s low on Y103.30 with a break under will open the way to Apr 22-23 lows on Y102.60/70.
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| 28.04 06:00 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0540 Resistance 2: Chf1.0480 Resistance 1: Chf1.0430 Current price: Chf1.0330 Support 1: Chf1.0300 Support 2: Chf1.0150 Support 3: Chf1.0000 Comments: Dollar weakened a bit. Strong resistance is around Friday’s high on Chf1.0430 with a break above will extend rise up to Chf1.0480. Stronger resistance is near Fibo level on Chf1.0540 (61.8% of Chf1.1110 - Chf0.9640 decline). Support comes at Friday’s low on Chf1.0300. Below Thursday’s low at Chf1.0150 the rate may dip to Chf1.0000.
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| 28.04 05:49 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $2.0030 Resistance 2: $1.9970 Resistance 1: $1.9890 Current price: $1.9835 Support 1: $1.9800 Support 2: $1.9760 Support 3: $1.9670 Comments: Pound holds within the narrow range. Resistance comes at Friday’s high on $1.9890 with a break above will target $1.9970 (Apr 23 high) and stronger level on $2.0030 (Apr 21 high). Strong support comes at $1.9800, with a break under widens the correction to $1.9760 and then – to Friday’s low on $1.9670.
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| 28.04 05:32 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.6020 Resistance 2: $1.5880 Resistance 1: $1.5700 Current price: $1.5640 Support 1: $1.5550 Support 2: $1.5500 Support 3: $1.5420 Comments: Techs on euro hasn’t changed. Support comes at Friday’s low on $1.5550 with further losses near $1.5500 and below – on $1.5420. Resistance is around Friday’s highs at $1.5700. Stronger resistance is near $1.5880. Key level is around life-time high on $1.6015/20.
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| 28.04 05:15 |
Daily History for April 25, 2008
High Low Close EUR/USD 1.5704, 1.5554, 1.5594 USD/JPY 104.79, 103.88, 104.40 GBP/USD 1.9887, 1.9676, 1.9825 USD/CHF 1.0428, 1.0300, 1.0361
EUR/JPY 163.80, 162.66, 162.83 EUR/GBP 0.7951, 0.7850, 0.7864 GBP/JPY 207.61, 205.41, 206.97 GBP/CHF 2.0625, 2.0402, 2.0541
Change % Change Last Nikkei +322.60 +2.38% 13,863.47 Topix +32.34 +2.5% 1,339.91 FTSE 100 6,091.40 +40.70 +0.67% CAC 40 4,978.21 +48.66 +0.99% Xetra Dax 6,896.58 +75.26 +1.10% Dow +42.91 +0.33% 12891.86 Nasdaq -5.99 -0.25% 2422.93 SP 500 +9.02 +0.65% 1397.84 10yr Note +0.3900 +0.102% 3.866% NYMEX Crude Oil +2.46 +2.08% 118.52 Gold +0.30 +0.03% 889.70
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| 28.04 05:02 |
Schedule for today, Monday, April 28, 2008
15:35 Germany CPI (April) preliminary 0.2% 0.5% 15:35 Germany CPI (April) preliminary Y/Y 2.8% 3.1% 15:35 Germany HICP (April) preliminary Y/Y 3.1% 3.3%
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