The New York attorney general's office is probing the relationship
between Fidelity Investments and Goldman Sachs Group Inc in connection
with the sale of auction-rate securities, The Wall Street Journal
reported.
The oil company Petrochina Co Ltd reported first-half net profit fell
34.5%, amid rising losses in its refining business mainly due to
Chinese domestic price controls.
The oil company ConocoPhillips is expected to sell the remainder of its
600 company-owned gasoline stations to closely held PetroSun West for
$800M, exiting low-margin U.S. retail-gasoline sales, to focus on
finding new supplies of crude.
Citigroup downgraded the shares of the parent of American Airlines -
AMR Corporation, the world's largest carrier, to “sell” and said
``significant risks remain'' for U.S. carriers.
27.08 19:31
Dow +102.67 at 11515.38, Nasdaq +27.17 at 2389.14, S&P +10.65 at 1282.15
27.08 19:10
CRUDE OIL: Up $1.80 now at $118.07
27.08 18:52
Standard & Poor's: Fresh economic data suggests that initial expectations of Europe remaining relatively immune from the U.S. slowdown were overly optimistic.
The stock market extends its recent advance as crude prices (+0.6%, $116.96) give up the majority of their 2.9% advance.
Despite the retreat in oil prices, energy stocks are still holding onto
a decent gain of 0.9%. Refiners (+4.7%) are up the most, as refining
companies make a larger profit when the spread between gasoline and
crude prices widens.
All ten sectors are posting a gain, led by financials (+1.8%) and
telecom (+1.8%). Consumer staples (+0.4%) and healthcare (+0.1%) are
underperforming on a relative basis.
The euro rose from a six-month low versus the dollar as European
Central Bank council member Axel Weber said discussion about a
reduction in interest rates is ``premature'' and crude oil prices
increased for a third day.
The currency also advanced on speculation its largest monthly decline
against the greenback since its 1999 debut was too big to sustain. The
dollar gained versus the yen as orders for U.S. durable goods
unexpectedly rose last month.
``In order for the euro to go lower, the market has to see an
indication of ECB rate cuts, which require inflation to come lower,''
said Matthew Kassel, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial
Markets LLC in New York. ``We are finding equilibrium.''
The euro advanced as traders reduced speculation that the ECB will cut
its 4.25 percent main refinancing rate next year. The implied yield on
the Euribor futures contract expiring in September 2009 rose 14 basis
points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 4.46 percent, after falling 6
basis points yesterday. The yield averaged 18 basis points above the
ECB's benchmark from 1999 to August 2007.
Crude oil for October delivery rose 1.5 percent to $118 a barrel on
forecasts Tropical Storm Gustav will strengthen as it enters the Gulf
of Mexico, home to 26 percent of U.S. production.
The Dollar Index dropped even as the Commerce Department reported that
bookings for U.S. goods made to last several years increased 1.3
percent in July after a revised gain of the same amount in the previous
month. The median forecast of economists was for no change in durable
goods orders.
The euro has fallen 8 percent from a record of $1.6038 set on July 15
as the European economy shrank in the second quarter and crude oil
declined 20 percent from its all-time high reached last month. The
currency has dropped 5.8 percent against the dollar in August, the
biggest monthly decline since the European currency began trading.
Trading around $1.4675 and near US session lows of $1.4665 seen in a
brief lurch lower just ahead of the European close. Flows described as
light, the dollar's progress from here probably contingent upon the
performance of dollar-yen around the Y110.00 level, a trader says. Dip
to lows in euro flushed known bids and stops around the $1.4670 area
and leaves room to $1.4635 area of overnight lows where some demand
interest will materialize.
"A somewhat discordant note was struck by the year-over-year change in
the ratio of shipments to inventories, which deteriorated slightly. We
have found this to have leading properties for the manufacturing
sector; this could indicate some weakness in the manufacturing sector
ahead."
27.08 17:15
Dow +49.83 at 11464.73, Nasdaq +8.42 at 2370.92, S&P +4.03 at 1275.90
Investors seemed to take a measured response to oil prices, which
spiked following a weak inventory report and in response to Tropical
Storm Gustav, which headed for the Gulf Coast.
Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods jumped for a second straight
month, the government reported Wednesday. Orders rose 1.3% in July,
easily outpacing the 0.1% gain economists were expecting, on average.
The rise was in line with the upwardly revised 1.3% increase reported
in June.
The strength was largely due to a rise in demand for commercial
aircraft, as well as for motor vehicles. Experts don't expect demand
for autos to stay strong, considering the tough industry conditions. A
category of the report seen as a proxy for business spending also rose
soundly, seeing its best results in three months.
While the strong durables report was a positive, investors remained
concerned about the spike in oil prices as Tropical Storm Gustav neared
the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. oil facilities.
U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose $2.64 to $118.91 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Investors also took in the
weekly inventory report, which showed a surprise drop in crude supplies
and a bigger-than-expected decline in gas supplies.
In the bond market, Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the
benchmark 10-year note to 3.82% from 3.77% late Tuesday. Prices and
yields move in opposite directions.
COMEX gold for October delivery rose $4.50 to $828.70 an ounce.
27.08 16:45
FTA: rising cap-good shipments sustain productivity growth, lifting real GDP despite declining payrolls.
27.08 16:31
CRUDE OIL: WTI Nymex crude oil at $118.00 (+$1,76)
The Department of Energy just reported that crude oil inventory levels
for the week ended Aug. 22 fell 177,000 barrels. Analyst forecast an
increase of 1.1 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles fell 1.2 million
barrels. Crude prices were up 1.8% to $118.31 per barrel just prior to
the release.
The major indices had rebounded into positive territory thanks to
mostly broad-based buying interest and then hold near highs upon the
release of the energy data. Nine of the ten sectors are posting a
gain. Energy (+1.5%) and telecom (+1.4%) are leading the way. Only
healthcare (-0.2%) remains in the red.
"the resilience of capital goods spending in face of tight credit
conditions, a poor growth outlook and declining business confidence
continues to surprise" but suggests exports will be cut by lower growth
overseas.
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.1 million barrels from the
previous week. At 305.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are
in the middle of the average range for this time of year.
27.08 15:24
GERMANY: CPI fell 0.3%;3.1% in national and 0.4%;3.3% in EU-harmonized terms (HICP ) in August
Cable pushes down to $1.8415, with reported Eastern European stops sub
$1.8425 targeted and triggered, one trader reports. Bids seen placed
toward $1.8400, a break below to open a deeper move back toward lows
at $1.8370.
Futures rebound to session highs on the release of a
better-than-expected durable goods report: S&P futures vs fair
value: +3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.3. Just reported, July
durable goods orders rose 1.3% month-over-month, compared to the
expected unchanged reading. Excluding transportation, orders rose
0.7%, versus the expected 0.7% decline. Meanwhile, Crude oil futures
(+1.7%, $118.27) climb higher as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Association says that tropical storm Gustav is on track to hit
Louisiana early Monday as a category four hurricane.
The Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum
Institute are slated to release their weekly report on crude oil
inventories and gasoline supplies at 14:35 GMT. A survey from energy
research firm Platts estimates that crude inventories will rise by 1.5
million barrels and gasoline stocks will drop by 2.8 million barrels.
27.08 14:12
RDQ Economics says durables strength might reflect overseas demand and they do not see overall econ gains.
Surges to Y109.50 area in the wake of the
durable goods data, the pair largely reversing overnight losses and
absorbing offers and stops clustered around Y109.40. Further offers
seen at Y109.90.
The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro and retreated
versus the yen before a government report that may show U.S. durable
goods orders stalled in July. Euro extended its gains as ECB WEBER said that EMU economy to be robust after dry spell. Не also does not expect inflation to slow with weaker growth and thinks, that ECB rates more accomodative than neutral.
The U.S. currency also declined from a two-year high against the
British pound on concern credit-market losses will spread after the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the number of problem banks
increased 30 percent to the most in five years. The dollar, which
advanced 7.5 percent from a record low versus the euro on July 15, also
slid as oil rose for a third day.
``The dollar looks overbought given its recent sharp gains,'' said
Michael Klawitter, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Dresdner
Kleinwort, the investment bank owned by Allianz SE, Europe's biggest
insurer. ``The market has also become too complacent about dollar risks
and the FDIC's warning on further bank failures serves as a reminder
that the outlook for the economy isn't so great.''
EUR/USD having got support at $1.4670 gained ahead of the US opening to $1.4770. Offers $1.4790,
$1.4800/10. Bids $1.4670.
GBP/USD challenged $1.8480 before retreated to
$1.8400. Rate failed to break above the figure and rebounded to
$1.8490. Bids $1.8400, $1.8370. Offers $1.8490, $1.8500/10, $1.8530
USD/JPY due to general dollar weakness fell from
Y109.30 to Y108.70, before rebounded to Y109.00. Bids Y108.70,
Y108.50, offers Y109.20/30
Bookings for U.S. goods made to last several years were unchanged in
July, compared with a gain of 0.8% in June, according to a survey of
economists before a Commerce Department report. A separate report on
Aug. 29 may show personal spending rose 0.2%, less than half the 0.6%
gain in June, according to a separate survey.
Gains in
the euro may be limited by speculation German inflation slowed this
month, reducing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise
borrowing costs. Germany's consumer prices rose 3.4% in August from a
year earlier after a 3.5% increase in the previous month, according to
a survey.
Moving back above Y109.00 ahead of the US data, though so far the move
comes with a lack of momentum with offers in the Y109.20/30 area
untested on this move. Stops are noted through Y109.40, with a break
exposing the Asian high at Y109.73.
Squeezes up to stg0.7995, as cable struggles to keep in step with
euro-dollar react gains, following hawkish comments from ECB Weber.
Offers seen placed between stg0.8000/05, a break above to open a move
on toward stg0.8015/20.
Airline and automakers impacted by recovery in crude
oil prices and housebuilders and financials also weaker. Natixis,
announced that it is planning a E3.7bln rights offer, with report in La
Tribune saying the bank may offer new shares at a discount of between
30-40%, citing an unidentified source. Also noted is report that the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), may have to tap the
Treasury for funds to carry it through an anticipated wave of bank
failures. CAC-40 is down 58pts (-1.2%), Xetra-DAX is down 86pts (-1.2%)
and FTSE-100 is down 33pts (-0.60%).
The rate currently holding back around earlier Asian highs of $1.4744.
Offers between $1.4745/55 have been filled and stops near $1.4760 get absorbed. A break higher to open a move
on toward $1.4800/10.
- ECB inflation forecasts may be revised up slightly for 2008-09
- Must assure collateral framework not abused
- Aim to take decision on collateral framework in fall (
The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro and retreated
versus the yen before a government report that may show U.S. durable
goods orders stalled in July.
The U.S. currency also declined from a two-year high against the
British pound on concern credit-market losses will spread after the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the number of problem banks
increased 30 percent to the most in five years. The dollar, which
advanced 7.5 percent from a record low versus the euro on July 15, also
slid as oil rose for a third day.
``The dollar looks overbought given its recent sharp gains,'' said
Michael Klawitter, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Dresdner
Kleinwort, the investment bank owned by Allianz SE, Europe's biggest
insurer. ``The market has also become too complacent about dollar risks
and the FDIC's warning on further bank failures serves as a reminder
that the outlook for the economy isn't so great.''
The euro may rise to between $1.4800 and $1.4850 over the next couple of days, Klawitter said.
Bookings for U.S. goods made to last several years were unchanged in
July, compared with a gain of 0.8 percent in June. The Commerce
Department report releases the figures at 1230GMT. Personal spending
rose 0.2 percent, less than half the 0.6 percent increase in June, a
report may show Aug. 29, according to a separate survey.
``The prospects for the U.S. economy are still poor and it will
continue to slow,'' said Katie Dean, a senior economist at Australia
& New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. ``There's not a lot
of reasons to own dollars.''
Resistance 3: Y111.80
Resistance 2: Y110.70
Resistance 1: Y110.30
Current price: Y108.85
Support 1: Y109.00
Support 2: Y107.70
Support 3: Y106.60
Comments: USD/JPY remains under 7-months highs Wednesday with techs
hasn't changed much. Strong support comes near Monday’s lows on Y109.00
with a break under opens the way to channel support line from Aug 15 at
Y107.70. Key support is near channel line from Jul 16 at Y106.60.
Resistance is near Y110.10/30 (Monday’s high and channel line from Aug
15), with a break above will target Aug 15 highs on Y110.70. Strong
resistance remains at highs 2008 on Y111.80/90.
Resistance 3: Chf1.1240
Resistance 2: Chf1.1080
Resistance 1: Chf1.1000
Current price: Chf0.0952
Support 1: Chf1.0920
Support 2: Chf1.0880
Support 3: Chf1.0820
Comments: In general, USD/CHF holds within the
upward channel from Jul 16, limited today by Chf1.0880/Chf1.1240 (key
support/resistance respectively). Support is around Chf1.0920 (Monday’s
low). Below correction may widen to channel support line on Chf1.0880
with a break under accelerates to last week’s lows on Chf1.0820. Minor
resistance comes at session highs near Chf1.1000/10 with stronger – on
Tuesday’s high at Chf1.1080/85 (trend resistance line from Mar passes
here too). Above key resistance comes at Chf1.1240 (the upper bound of
the channel from Jul 16).
Resistance 3: $1.8660
Resistance 2: $1.8580
Resistance 1: $1.8450
Current price: $1.8447
Support 1: $1.8330
Support 2: $1.8240
Support 3: $1.8160
Comments: GBP/USD
continues to rebound, challenging strong resistance zone between
$1.8440/50 (23.6% Fibo of $1.8800 - $1.8330 decline). Above the target
comes at Monday’s high on $1.8580/90 and further – at $.8660. Strong
support is around $1.8330 with a break under will strengthen the
pressure on pound and widen its losses initially to $1.8240 and then –
to Jul 2006 lows on $1.8160/70.
Resistance 3:$1.4880
Resistance 2: $1.4800
Resistance 1: $1.4740
Current price: $1.4716
Support 1: $1.4680
Support 2: $1.4560
Support 3: $1.4440
Comments: Despite
EUR/USD sell-off in EU trade Tuesday amid the Ifo institute's
confidence index fell to three-years lows in August (94.8 versus the
median 97.2), the rate managed to cover the most of losses till the NY
close. Minor resistance is around session highs on $1.4740 with a break
above will open the way to Monday’s high on $1.4800 and then – to
strong resistance near $1.4880/00 (Friday’s high and 23.6% Fibo of
$1.6030 - $1.4560 decline). Support is near $1.4680. Below losses may
widen to yesterday’s low on $1.4560/70. Key support comes at Feb lows
on $1.4440.
The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro and dropped
versus the yen on speculation weakening U.S. business and consumer
spending will delay a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. The
greenback retreated from a two-year high against the British pound as
economists forecast U.S. data this week will show declines in durable
goods orders and slowing consumption.
EUR/USD printed high on $1.4745 before retreated to $1.4670. Currently rate rebounds with offers on $1.4750.
GBP/USD challenged $1.8480 before retreated to $1.8400. Rate failed to break above the figure and rebounded to $1.8463.
USD/JPY rose from Y108.80 to Y109.30 before retreated to Y109.00.
Bookings for U.S. goods made to last several years
were unchanged in July, compared with a gain of 0.8% in June, according
to a survey of economists before a Commerce Department report. A
separate report on Aug. 29 may show personal spending rose 0.2%, less
than half the 0.6% gain in June, according to a separate survey. Gains
in the euro may be limited by speculation German inflation slowed this
month, reducing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise
borrowing costs. Germany's consumer prices rose 3.4% in August from a
year earlier after a 3.5% increase in the previous month, according to
a survey.
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Wednesday's session lower across the board. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 25.75 points, or 0.20%, at 12752.96. The broader-based TOPIX was 5.66 points lower at 1223.69.
Japan's stocks dropped the most in a week, led by financial companies, after HSBC Holdings Plc said real estate failures will increase bad loans at regional banks.
Fukuoka Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-largest regional lender by
assets, and Suruga Bank Ltd. slumped after HSBC cut their ratings.
Developer Asahi Homes Co. plunged 28%, its sharpest drop in six years,
after its largest shareholder filed for bankruptcy. Shimamura Co. led
declines by retailers after reporting slower sales.
Fukuoka Financial slumped 4%. Suruga Bank dropped 3.4%. Nomura Holdings
Inc., Japan's largest brokerage, fell 2.1%. Orix Corp., Japan's largest
non-bank financial company, lost 2.7%. Asahi Homes
plunged 28%, the biggest drop since September 2002. Parent company
Sebon Corp. filed for bankruptcy with debt at 60 times its capital, it
said yesterday after markets shut. Bankruptcies among property
companies more than doubled to 60 in July from a year earlier,
according to Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd.
European stocks rose as
U.S. reports that showed consumer confidence climbed more than forecast
and home sales rebounded overshadowed concern that the U.K. and German
economies are slowing. UBS AG, the European bank
hardest hit by the subprime contagion, gained 1.5%, and Nokia Oyj, the
world's biggest mobile-phone maker, climbed 2.9%. Alcatel-Lucent SA,
the world's largest supplier of fixed-line phone networks, advanced
4.7% as the euro's drop to a six-month low against the dollar boosted
the value of European companies' overseas sales. UBS, the biggest Swiss bank, gained 1.5%. Nokia rallied 2.9%.
Earlier today, the Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate
index declined to 94.8 in August from 97.5 the previous month.
Economists had predicted a drop to 97.2. German consumer confidence
sank to the lowest in more than five years as soaring energy prices
sapped purchasing power and the economic outlook deteriorated, another
report showed today.
Stocks ended mixed on Tuesday after Wall Street moved
in opposition to crude prices for most of the session and a slew of
housing and economic reports left markets at a draw.
One housing report showed home prices tumbled more than 15% in the
second quarter and a government report showed the number of new homes
sold in July was still more than 30% behind the same month last year. Stocks
did not react strongly to the negative economic reports because "things
Financial news: The FDIC, one of the regulators of the nation's banking
system, published its second quarter reading on the banking industry
and the agency's so-called "problem bank" list grew to 117, up from 90
banks in the first quarter. The number of banks on the "problem list"
has increased since Americans started having trouble paying their
mortgage payments. The Commerce Department said
sales of new one-family houses were at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 515,000 in July, up 2.4% from the June rate of 503,000, which
had been revised lower. While the July reading ticked up from the prior
month, the measure still stands 35.5% below the same month a year ago. The
Conference Board said that its reading on consumer confidence increased
again in August, after making modest gains in July. The index stood at
56.9, which was higher than the reading of 53 that economists surveyed
by Briefing.com had forecast. Fed minutes:
The government released the minutes from its meeting on Aug. 5 of the
Federal Open Market Committee when the central bank decided to leave
the key interest rate unchanged at 2%.
Dollar fell Tuesday after Aug FOMC’s minutes hasn’t surprised the market. Earlier euro came under pressure after
a report showed German business confidence worsened more than forecast
in August. The Ifo institute's German business confidence index
declined to 94.8, the lowest level in three years, from 97.5 in July.
Economists expected a drop to 97.2. The pound declined to its
lowest level since July 2006. Data this week may show U.K. home prices
fell by the most in almost two decades. The yen declined against
the dollar on speculation Japanese pension funds and institutional
investors sold the currency to increase their holdings of Treasuries.
EUR/USD printed low on $1.4660/70 before rising up to $1.4680. But rate failed to hold above and retreated to $1.4614. GBP/USD fell to $1.8330 before rebounded to $1.8410/50. Later rate declined to $1.8350. USD/JPY tested Y109.90 before falling to Y109.20.
Today’s focus is on Durable goods orders at 12:30 GMT. Later Germany CPI report is schedule to come.
Resistance 3: Y111.80 Resistance 2: Y110.70 Resistance 1: Y110.30 Current price: Y109.25 Support 1: Y109.00 Support 2: Y107.70 Support 3: Y106.60 Comments: USD/JPY remains under 7-months highs Wednesday with techs hasn't changed much. Strong support comes near Monday’s lows on Y109.00 with a break under opens the way to channel support line from Aug 15 at Y107.70. Key support is near channel line from Jul 16 at Y106.60. Resistance is near Y110.10/30 (Monday’s high and channel line from Aug 15), with a break above will target Aug 15 highs on Y110.70. Strong resistance remains at highs 2008 on Y111.80/90.
Resistance 3: Chf1.1240 Resistance 2: Chf1.1080 Resistance 1: Chf1.1000 Current price: Chf0.0965 Support 1: Chf1.0920 Support 2: Chf1.0880 Support 3: Chf1.0820 Comments: Dollar weakening Wednesday after yesterday’s FOMC minutes hasn’t surprised the market. Today Durable goods orders report is due to come (at 12:30 GMT). Data will provide brighter picture on consumer activity and economic health. In general, USD/CHF holds within the upward channel from Jul 16, limited today by Chf1.0880/Chf1.1240 (key support/resistance respectively). Support is around Chf1.0920 (Monday’s low). Below correction may widen to channel support line on Chf1.0880 with a break under accelerates to last week’s lows on Chf1.0820. Minor resistance comes at session highs near Chf1.1000/10 with stronger – on Tuesday’s high at Chf1.1080/85 (trend resistance line from Mar passes here too). Above key resistance comes at Chf1.1240 (the upper bound of the channel from Jul 16).
Resistance 3: $1.8660 Resistance 2: $1.8580 Resistance 1: $1.8440 Current price: $1.8447 Support 1: $1.8330 Support 2: $1.8240 Support 3: $1.8160 Comments: GBP/USD continues to rebound, challenging strong resistance zone between $1.8440/50 (23.6% Fibo of $1.8800 - $1.8330 decline). Above the target comes at Monday’s high on $1.8580/90 and further – at $.8660. Strong support is around $1.8330 with a break under will strengthen the pressure on pound and widen its losses initially to $1.8240 and then – to Jul 2006 lows on $1.8160/70.
27.08 07:05
GERMANY DATA: July export prices, +0.5% m/m and 3.3% y/y
27.08 07:02
GERMANY DATA: July import prices, +0.6% m/m and +9.3% y/y
Resistance 3:$1.4880 Resistance 2: $1.4800 Resistance 1: $1.4720 Current price: $1.4697 Support 1: $1.4640 Support 2: $1.4560 Support 3: $1.4440 Comments: Despite EUR/USD sell-off in EU trade Tuesday amid the Ifo institute's confidence index fell to three-years lows in August (94.8 versus the median 97.2), the rate managed to cover the most of losses till the NY close. Minor resistance is around session highs on $1.4720 with a break above will open the way to Monday’s high on $1.4800 and then – to strong resistance near $1.4880/00 (Friday’s high and 23.6% Fibo of $1.6030 - $1.4560 decline). Support is near $1.4640. Below losses may widen to yesterday’s low on $1.4560/70. Key support comes at Feb lows on $1.4440.
27.08 06:46
Major European bourses are initially seen trading modestly lower Wednesday: the FTSE lower by 5, the DAX down 10, the CAC down 3 and the Eurostoxx 50 down 5