Stiri financiare

Kazuya Ito, fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments - "The market sentiment has turned towards an interest rate increase by the Fed."

``The dollar will keep sliding amid the slowing U.S. economy,'' said Michiyoshi Kato, a senior vice president of currency sales in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's third-largest financial group. ``Weaker data will force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further.''

Tomoko Fujii, senior currency strategist at Bank of America - "There is no fresh incentive to drive the currency market except for the housing data in the U.S. There is no sign yet of a bottoming out in the housing sector which may weaken the dollar."

WTI Nymex crude oil is now at $133.40, up $1.21.

CAC 40 +5.58 +0.11% 4,939.35
Xetra Dax +1.19 +0.02% 6,945.24

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, doesn't expect the ECB to lower rates this year, according to a research note published last week. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, the U.K.'s second-biggest bank, last week pushed back its forecast for a reduction in rates to the second quarter of next year.

The US has a national holiday on Monday and North American trading action is likely to be thin and vulnerable to higher volatility as a result. US data begins on Tuesday with May consumer confidence, the only question being 'how much?' Tuesday also sees May Richmond Fed index and April new home sales. Wednesday sees April durable goods orders. Thursday sees the first revision to 1Q US GDP, expected to see the advance 0.6% rate adjusted higher to 0.9%, along with weekly jobless claims. Friday finishes out with April personal income and spending, PCE-core inflation readings, May Chicago PMI and final May Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Eurozone data begins on Tuesday with final 1Q German GDP and related reports, the June German GfK consumer confidence survey, and French and Italian business sentiment gauges. Wednesday sees April German import prices, March Eurozone current account, and May German CPI. Thursday sees European Commission sentiment gauges for businesses and consumers along with May German unemployment. Friday concludes with April German retail sales, April French PPI and May Eurozone CPI.

UK data is relatively light, beginning on Tuesday with April BBA mortgage lending data. Thursday morning sees May Nationwide Building Society's house price index and the May CBI distributive trades report, a privately calculated retail trade survey. At midnight Thursday local UK time, the May GfK consumer confidence survey will be released.

Japanese data sees only April corporate service prices on Monday morning. There is no data until Wednesday afternoon when May small business confidence is released. Thursday morning in Tokyo sees April retail trade and large retailers' sales. Friday morning sees April employment data, household spending, CPI, and preliminary April industrial production, followed by April housing starts and construction orders in the afternoon.

At mid-morning Monday session, continental European equity bourses are trading in positive territory. CAC-40 is up 12pts (+0.24%) and Xetra-DAX is up 13pts (+0.19%).

The dollar held its ground on Monday, taking advantage of the ultra-thin volumes owing to U.S. and UK market holidays to arrest its decline of the last three weeks and eke out slender gains against a basket of major currencies.

"This is only due to the iliquid markets," said Carole Laulhere, currency strategist at Societe Generale in Paris. "The dollar should stay quite vulnerable this week. We still have record oil prices, which is negative for the dollar, and U.S. equity markets are worsening, which is also a concern for the greenback."

However the dollar traded near a one-month low against the euro earlier on speculation U.S. reports tomorrow will show a slump in home prices deepened and consumers were the most pessimistic in at least 15 years.

The U.S. currency fell versus the Canadian dollar and held near a 25-year low against the Australian dollar after oil and gold prices gained, improving the outlook for commodity exporters. Traders pared bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, after it cut rates seven times since September while the European Central Bank left rates unchanged.
Currencies in Europe will benefit from record oil prices because of the region's energy efficiency, exports to oil- producing nations and vigilance against inflation, according to Barclays Capital.
The euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone should perform ``relatively well'' as oil prices rise, wrote David Woo, global head of foreign exchange strategy in London at the bank, the third-biggest currency trader. The U.S. dollar ranks bottom in terms of potential performance as energy prices climb, it said.
The euro may be supported by speculation the 15 countries that share the currency are strong enough to withstand a slowdown in the U.S., allowing the ECB to keep interest rates on hold to fight inflation. ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said policy makers are ``strongly committed'' to controlling inflation, the Ta Nea newspaper reported on the weekend.
Consumer prices in the euro region rose 3.5 percent in May, faster than the 3.3 percent gain in the previous month, according to survey. The statistics office will release the figure on May 30. Data one day earlier will probably show unemployment in Germany, Europe's largest economy, declined for the 28th month in May, according to a separate survey.

Resistance 3: Y105.50Resistance 2: Y105.00
Resistance 1: Y104.40
Current price: Y103.41
Support 1: Y103.00

Support 2: Y102.20

Support 3: Y101.60

Comments: Techs is syeady. The nearest support is Friday's lows at Y103.00. Below losses may widen to Y102.20 and Y101.60. Resistance comes near Thursday’s high on Y104.40. Above Y105.00 there is a room for a rise to May 14 high on Y105.50.

Resistance 3: Chf1.0570
Resistance 2: Chf1.0400
Resistance 1: Chf1.0330Current price: Chf1.0257

Support 1: Chf1.0210
Support 2: Chf1.0140

Support 3: Chf1.0080

Comments: Dollar advances. Resistance comes at Chf1.0330 (Friday's high). Stronger level is around Chf1.0400 (50%) and then – near Chf1.0570 (May 19 high). Strong support comes at Friday’s lows on Chf1.0210 with a break under will point to Chf1.0140 and then – to Chf1.0080.

Resistance 3: $1.9960
Resistance 2: $1.9900
Resistance 1: $1.9850
Current price: $1.9771
Support 1: $1.9750
Support 2: $1.9680
Support 3: $1.9580
Comments: Cable retreats. Below $1.9750 correction may widen to $1.9680 and then – to 50% Fibo from May 19 at $1.9580/90.The nearest resistance is Thursday’s highs near $1.9850, with a break above will extend the rise to $1.9900 (May 02 high) and $1.9960.

Resistance 3:$1.6020
Resistance 2: $1.5920
Resistance 1: $1.5815
Current price: $1.5749

Support 1: $1.5690
Support 2: $1.5540
Support 3: $1.5490

Comments: Euro trades under pressure. Support comes at $1.5690. Stronger level comes at 50% Fibo on $1.5540 with further losses down to $1.5490.The nearest resistance is Thursday’s high on $1.5815. Above the rise may extend to $1.5920. Main resistance is around Apr 22 highs on $1.6010.

- Difficult to forecast HICP due to oil volatility
- Economic impact of turmoil remains to be seen
- Markets should look past short-temr data to form rate views.

ECB WELLINK: This is not the last financial crisis.

WTI Nymex crude oil is now up 96 cents at $133.15.

ECB WELLINK: Don't know turmoil's impact on economy.

Wires report Nigeria rebels attack Shell pipeline in Niger Delta. Earlier report said an explosion hits Iran-Turkey gas pipeline and flow has been cut.

EUR/USD: $1.5735, $1.5600, $1.6000

GBP/USD: $1.9675

USD/CAD: C$0.9870

Continental European equity bourses are mixed on Monday but Volumes are diminished given UK Bank Holiday and US closed in observance of Memorial Day. CAC-40 is up 4pts (+0.07%) and Xetra-DAX is down 3pts (-0.05%).

The dollar traded near a one-month low against the euro on speculation U.S. reports tomorrow will show a slump in home prices accelerated and consumers were the most pessimistic in at least 15 years.
The U.S. currency fell versus the Canadian dollar and held near a 25-year low against the Australian dollar after oil and gold prices gained, improving the outlook for commodity exporters.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 42% likelihood the Fed will hold its target lending rate at 2% percent this year.
The euro may be supported by speculation the 15 countries that share the currency are strong enough to withstand a slowdown in the U.S., allowing the European Central Bank to keep interest rates on hold to fight inflation.
Consumer prices in the euro region rose 3.5% in May, faster than the 3.3% gain in the previous month, according to a survey.

EUR/USD held within the $1.5750/90 range.
GBP/USD printed high on $1.9830 before sliding to $1.9790.
USD/JPY tested Y103.11 before rebounding Y103.29.

US and UK markets are closed Monday in observance of national holidays.

Japanese stocks fell the most in six weeks as rising commodities prices sparked concern inflation will erode corporate profits.

Bridgestone Corp. led tiremakers lower after rubber futures rose to the highest in 28 years. Daihatsu Motor Co. sank the most in nine months after Daiwa Securities Group Inc. said materials costs will cut profit. Brother Industries Ltd. plunged after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its rating on the printer maker.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 322.01, or 2.3%, to 13,690.19. The broader Topix index dropped 32.51, or 2.4%, to 1,344.18.

The dollar declined for a third consecutive week against the euro, the longest losing streak in two months, as the U.S. housing slump and record crude oil prices slow growth in the world's largest economy.

``There's no turn in sight for the housing market,'' said Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``Higher oil prices effectively become a tax. It takes away the spending power from consumers, and it's a drag on growth.''
The dollar fell 1.2 percent this week to $1.5762 per euro yesterday, from $1.5577 on May 16. It touched $1.5814 on May 22, the weakest level since April 24. The U.S. currency fell 0.7 percent to 103.38 yen, compared with 104.04 a week earlier. The euro gained 0.5 percent to 162.95 yen, from 162.27.
The greenback declined against 13 of the 16 most-traded currencies this week, including 2.4 percent against the Swiss franc and 1.7 percent versus the New Zealand dollar, as oil touched a record $135.09 a barrel on May 22. The U.S. is the world's biggest importer of oil. Oil closed at $132 Friday.
The correlation coefficient between oil prices and the euro dollar exchange rate has been 0.95 for the past year, indicating they have moved in the same direction 95 percent of the time.
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. declined 1 percent to a 4.89 million annual rate in April, and were down 18 percent from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. Reports next week will show new home sales dropped to a 17-year low, and consumer confidence, as measured by the New York-based Conference Board, was the weakest since 1993.
``If the economy disappoints, and oil prices remain high, then that's clearly a risk for the dollar,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Bank in New York, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``It will delay even further the recovery of the greenback.''
The U.S. currency has lost 14 percent against the euro in the past 12 months as the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to 2 percent, from 5.25 percent in September. The European Central Bank has kept its target rate at 4 percent.
Minutes from the Fed's April meeting released this week indicated the bank probably won't lower borrowing costs further. Officials voiced concern inflation may accelerate, and most thought the cut to 2 percent last month was a ``close call,'' the minutes showed.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade indicated a 40 percent chance the Fed will increase the target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point in December. There's a 92 percent chance policy makers will hold the rate at 2 percent at their next meeting on June 25.
The U.S. currency also dropped versus the yen and fell to a 25-year low against the Australian dollar. The Chinese yuan posted its biggest weekly increase this year on signs the country's officials are accelerating the currency's gains to curb rising prices.

Crude oil rose to a new record last week as the dollar fell against the euro, prompting investors to buy commodities as a hedge against the currency's decline. The weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials have led to records this year for commodities including gold, corn, soybeans and rice.
Crude-oil prices touched a record Thursday, spurred by concern supplies may not be adequate. The International Energy Agency said it may cut long-term forecasts as fields deplete faster than expected. The price decline at the end of the day occurred as some traders said this month's 17% rally wasn't justified by U.S. stockpiles and demand.
Banks have increased their price forecasts because of supply constraints and demand growth. OPEC ministers said the group is powerless to stop the surge in prices. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding Angola and Ecuador, exported 22.762 million barrels a day on tankers in the four weeks ended May 4. That compares with 23.786 million barrels a day in the equivalent period to April 6, data.

Crude oil for July delivery rose to $132.19 a barrel. The contract rose 4.9% last week. Futures reached $135.09 Thursday, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices have doubled over the past year. Brent crude oil for July settlement rose to $131.57 a barrel. The contract touched a record $135.14 Thursday. Crude oil may rise next week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. This is the first time in 20 weeks that analysts forecast an increase in prices. There will be no floor trading in New York on May 26 because of the Memorial Day holiday.

Gold rose, capping the third straight weekly gain, as surging energy costs boosted demand for a hedge against inflation. Gold has gained 40% in the past 12 months as oil doubled. The metal reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17. Gold futures for June delivery rose to $925.80 an ounce. The metal gained 2.9% last week after climbing 4.9% in the previous two weeks. Silver futures for July delivery climbed to $18.29 an ounce. The price gained 7.8% for the week, the most since late February. This year, silver has advanced 23%, while gold climbed 10%.

Copper prices fell last week. Copper for three months delivery closed at $8,180 per tonne. Earlier it touched $8,040 a tonne, its lowest in two months. Aluminium held firm on the back of historically high energy prices, despite bearish near term fundamentals -- namely plentiful stocks of the metal used in packaging, transportation and power. Aluminium ended at $3,002 a tonne. Nickel closed at $24,100 a tonne.

U.S. stocks cosed week lower, extending the market's biggest weekly retreat since February, on concern a worsening housing recession and rising energy costs will prolong the slump in corporate profits.The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 0.8%. Five stocks dropped for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

Ford Motor Co. declined for a sixth day after the second- biggest U.S. automaker said consumers are buying fewer trucks as fuel prices climb. Nordstrom Inc. led retailers to a six-week low as crude rose. Homebuilders posted their biggest weekly tumble since 2001 after a report showing sales of previously owned homes matched an all-time low in April. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped for a ninth day, the longest losing streak since the company went public in 1999, on concern brokerage earnings will be hurt by further writedowns on mortgage-related assets.
General Motors Corp. fell the most in the Dow average, tumbling 4.5 percent to $17.60 after pledging $215 million, $15 million more than its initial estimate, to help end a 12-week strike at a supplier that reduced production at the largest U.S. automaker by 230,000 cars and trucks this quarter. The shares lost 15 percent in the week.
D.R. Horton Inc. led homebuilders in S&P indexes to a sixth- straight decline after the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes declined 1 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million from 4.94 million in March. The median price dropped 8 percent from April last year, the second-biggest decline ever, as the number of houses on the market surged. D.R. Horton retreated 3.1 percent to $12.98. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index slumped almost 16 percent in the week. Apple Inc. advanced 2.3 percent to $181.17. Merrill Lynch & Co. raised its share-price estimate for the maker of the iPod media player by 16 percent to $215, citing a ``significant increase'' in sales generated by the iPhone.

Thus far we haven't seen the consumer collapse, yet the concerns and strains of rising oil prices took on a new dimension for the market this week when AMR Corp. (AMR) announced it would be cutting 11-12% of its capacity and instituting a $15 fee for the first checked bag on its flights in an effort to combat rising oil prices. Additionally, Ford (F) announced a cutback in production of its full-size SUVs and trucks in North America citing customers' shift in demand for more fuel efficient vehicles.

Cautious outlooks from home improvement retailers Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) didn't help matters either.

Resistance 3: Y105.50
Resistance 2: Y105.00
Resistance 1: Y104.40
Current price: Y103.29
Support 1: Y103.00
Support 2: Y102.20
Support 3: Y101.60
Comments: Dollar rebounds from Friday's lows at Y103.00 (strong support). Below losses may widen to Y102.20 and Y101.60. Resistance comes near Thursday’s high on Y104.40. Above Y105.00 there is a room for a rise to May 14 high on Y105.50.

Resistance 3: Chf1.0570
Resistance 2: Chf1.0400
Resistance 1: Chf1.0350
Current price: Chf1.0252
Support 1: Chf1.0210
Support 2: Chf1.0140
Support 3: Chf1.0080
Comments: Dollar rebounds with strong support comes at Friday’s lows on Chf1.0210 with a break under will point to Chf1.0140 and then – to Chf1.0080. Resistance comes at Chf1.0350 (Thursday’s high). Stronger level is around Chf1.0400 (50%) and then – near Chf1.0570 (May 19 high).

Resistance 3: $1.9960
Resistance 2: $1.9900
Resistance 1: $1.9850
Current price: $1.9819
Support 1: $1.9750
Support 2: $1.9680
Support 3: $1.9580
Comments: Cable tries to rebound, holding within the narrow range. The nearest resistance is Thursday’s highs near $1.9850, with a break above will extend the rise to $1.9900 (May 02 high) and $1.9960. Below $1.9750 correction may widen to $1.9680 and then – to 50% Fibo from May 19 at $1.9580/90.

Resistance 3:$1.6020
Resistance 2: $1.5920
Resistance 1: $1.5815
Current price: $1.5759
Support 1: $1.5690
Support 2: $1.5540
Support 3: $1.5490
Comments: Techs on euro hasn’t changed. The nearest resistance is Thursday’s high on $1.5815. Above the rise may extend to $1.5920. Main resistance is around Apr 22 highs on $1.6010. Support comes at $1.5690. Stronger level comes at 50% Fibo on $1.5540 with further losses down to $1.5490.

High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.5791 1.5696 1.5773
USD/JPY 104.21 103.05 103.30
GBP/USD 1.9849 1.9754 1.9801
USD/CHF 1.0334 1.0214 1.0238

EUR/JPY 163.83 162.59 162.96
EUR/GBP 0.7969 0.7933 0.7965
GBP/JPY 206.23 204.13 204.55
GBP/CHF 2.0434 2.0235 2.0271

Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 +33.74 (+0.24%) 14012.20
Topix -2.98 (-0.1%) 1376.69
DAX 30 -126.28 (-1.8%) 6944.05
САС 40 -94.97 (-1.9%) 4933.77
FTSE 100 -94.30 (-1.5%) 6087.30
Dow -145.99 (-1.16%) 12479.63
Nasdaq -19.91 (-0.81%) 2444.67
S&P -18.42 (-1.32%) 1375.93
10YR 96 +9/32 99 31/32 3.87%
OIL NYMEX +1.38 (+1.05%) $132.19

UK Spring Bank Holiday
USA Memorial Day

2008