|
|
| 25.08 19:53 |
ML: US GDP to post -0.3% in 2009
ML says US GDP to post -0.3% next yr, the first contraction since 1991
and says this will push corp earnings lower. ML ests S&P 500
operating EPS for 2009 at $63, vs $100 consensus. ML suggests margins
will fall and leverage will hurt business ahead.
|
| 25.08 19:51 |
GS: "WTI Crude Oil failed to extend above $120, but still has major support at $110." |
| 25.08 19:50 |
Morgan Stanley on S&P 500
"We are downgrading our 2008 S&P 500 operating EPS estimate to
$78.00 and year-end S&P 500 index target to 1300 (vs 1400). We are
also introducing our 2009 S&P 500 operating EPS estimate of $84.00."
|
| 25.08 19:48 |
Crude oil is trading around $115.00, up $0.41 on the day as the NYMEX floor session winds down. |
| 25.08 19:24 |
Dow -198.01 at 11427.93, Nasdaq -44.45 at 2369.86, S&P -20.97 at 1271.05
The stock market is heading mostly sideways in broad-based weakness. Sentiment remains negative, with only 21 stocks within the S&P 500 posting a gain. Fannie Mae (FNM 5.29, +0.29) and Freddie Mac (FRE 3.21, +0.40) are leading the way. Exxon Mobil (XOM 79.03, -1.27) and General Electric (GE 28.49, -0.63) are the main laggards.
|
| 25.08 19:00 |
BMO: "home prices are unlikely to bottom."
BMO says home sales "appear to have stabilized around the 5 mln mark
(11 consecutive months +/- 150,000)... However, as long as foreclosures
continue to boost supply, prices are unlikely to bottom."
|
| 25.08 18:48 |
Dow -207.21 at 11423.70, Nasdaq -46.00 at 2366.71, S&P -22.34 at 1270.10 |
| 25.08 18:32 |
RDQ Economics: home prices to stay under the pressure
RDQ Economics says "Over the next few quarters, foreclosure sales are
likely to comprise an increasing proportionof home sales, which should
put further downward pressure on home prices."
|
| 25.08 18:13 |
Dow -225.86 at 11401.80, Nasdaq -49.57 at 2365.14, S&P -24.14 at 1238.06
The major indices stabilize near recently reached session lows as they
post steep losses. This session's decline sends the S&P 500 back
to the unchanged mark for the month of August. The index was up as
much as 3.6% earlier this month.
Fannie Mae (FNM 5.30, +0.30) and Freddie Mac (FRE 3.43, +0.61) extend
their gains after a regulatory filing discloses that JPMorgan Chase
(JPM 36.38, -1.29) holds $1.2 billion par value of Fannie and Freddie
perpetual preferred stocks.
Meanwhile, the IMF cut its forecast for 2008 and 2009 world economic
growth by 20 basis points to 3.9% and 3.7%, respectively, primarily due
to a worsening outlook for the euro zone, according to Reuters.com,
citing a G20 finance official. The Dow Jones World Index is down 2.2%
this session.
|
| 25.08 17:51 |
Crude oil is holding modest gains against a backdrop of slight dollar weakness, is up $0.30 at $114.89. |
| 25.08 17:28 |
American focus:
The yen and Swiss franc rose against most of the other major currencies
on bets credit market losses will widen, prompting investors to sell
holdings of higher- yielding assets and pay back loans in Japan and
Switzerland.
The yen gained the most in more than a week versus the euro on
speculation American International Group Inc. will post a quarterly
loss and as Columbian Bank & Trust Co. became the ninth U.S. bank
to collapse this year. South Korea's won fell to the lowest against the
dollar in almost four years as overseas investors stepped up sales of
the nation's shares.
``Credit markets may be the prominent concern this week,'' said Vassili
Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New
York. ``That points to outperformance of the yen and the Swiss franc.''
The dollar briefly pared its loss against the yen as an industry report
showed U.S. home resales rose last month more than economists forecast.
Resales rose to a 5 million annual rate in July, the National
Association of Realtors reported. The median forecast of 75 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an increase to 4.91 million.
``The good news is existing-home sales still look to be bottoming,''
wrote Alan Ruskin, head of currency strategy in North America at RBS
Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut, in a research
note today. ``The bad news is that this is probably being achieved via
foreclosed home sales. The overall foreign-exchange market tenor is
generally dollar-neutral to mildly negative for now.''
``We put up a recommendation to go short on the euro at $1.4858,''
targeting $1.4350, wrote Nizam Idris, a currency strategist at UBS AG
in Singapore, in a research note today. ``We expect a trend of
deteriorating growth conditions to remain intact, and this will most
likely keep the euro in a broad downtrend.''
``The euro has downside risks before the Ifo data,'' said Motonari
Ogawa, director of currency trading in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc.,
a unit of the U.K.'s third-biggest bank. ``European growth isn't
looking that good, so people are likely to react more to data that
support that view.''
The Ifo institute's business confidence index in Germany will probably
show a decline to 97.2 in August, the lowest since September 2005, from
97.5 the previous month, according to the median forecast of 35
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due tomorrow.
|
| 25.08 17:03 |
BAS on US housing
BAS says 5m e-home sales in July
"implies some stability in demand, but the headwinds of tighter
lendingstandards and rising unemployment suggest that a recovery in
home sales in 2008 remains a challenge."
|
| 25.08 16:39 |
Dow -135.07 at 11491.93, Nasdaq -38.49 at 2376.22, S&P -15.49 at 1276.86 |
| 25.08 16:22 |
Stocks slumped Monday morning, resuming the recent retreat, as rising oil prices, a weaker dollar and more credit market woes dragged on Wall Street.
Investors seemed to take in stride a report showing that existing home
sales rose to a five-month high in July, topping forecasts.
Stocks gained Friday at the end of a tough week, thanks to lower oil
prices, a stronger dollar, and comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
that soothed some inflationary worries. The broader market also
benefited from bets that troubled Lehman Brothers could be a buyout
candidate.
U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose 15 cents to $114.74 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Lehman Brothers retreated Monday after speculation cooled that
state-run Korea Development Bank is likely to buy the firm, following
comments from a top regulator Monday.
In the bond market, Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the
benchmark 10-year note to 3.78% from 3.86% late Friday. Prices and
yields move in opposite directions.
COMEX gold for October delivery fell $5.40 to $824.10 an ounce.
|
| 25.08 15:59 |
Dow -100.88 at 11527.51, Nasdaq -19.80 at 2293.97, S&P -10.85 at 1281.81
The stock market continues to post a large loss, with all ten sectors in negative territory.
The financial sector (-1.5%) recovers from its lows on reports that Freddie Mac's
(FRE 3.04, +0.23) most recent $2 billion debt sale recieved stronger
demand than recent sales. The rebound in shares of Freddie, however,
are not enough to lift the financial sector out of the red. AIG (AIG
18.92, -0.95) is a laggard after Fitch Ratings put the insurance
giant's credit ratings on negative watch, and had its earnings
estimates cut at credit Suisse.
|
| 25.08 15:44 |
MS: existing home sales were stronger than expected
"Sales have been stable near this level since late last year, but the
recent backup in mortgage rates presents downside risks going forward."
|
| 25.08 15:27 |
Dow -107.23 at 11521.57, Nasdaq -24.30 at 2390.59, S&P -10.78 at 1281.59
Just hitting the wires, the National Association of Realtors said
existing home sales in July rose 3.1% month-over-month to a seasonally
adjusted 5.00 million annual rate, which follows the 2.8% decline in
June. Economists expected sales to increase 1.1% to 4.91 million.
Existing home sales are down 13.2% year-over-year, and have an
inventory supply of 11.2 months, compared to the 2007 average inventory
supply of 8.9 months. The median sales price fell 1.3%
month-over-month to $212,400, and is down 7.1% compared to last year.
The stock market had already extended its opening losses and then had a limited reaction on the housing data.
Nine of the ten economic sectors are posting a loss, with energy (+0.4%) posting a slight gain as crude oil prices climb 0.3%.
|
| 25.08 15:00 |
USA Existing home sales (July), mln 5,00 |
| 25.08 14:50 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut
EUR/USD:
$1.4850, $1.5000
USD/JPY: Y108.90,
Y110.50, Y110.95
EUR/JPY: Y162.00
AUS/JPY: Y95.45
|
| 25.08 14:33 |
US Stocks Open: DJIA +109,11 Nadaq -20,34, S&P -8.61 |
| 25.08 14:29 |
Before the bell: Stock futures suggest a slightly lower start to the trading day [M]
 
Stock futures fall to session lows, with notable weakness in financial
stocks (S&P futures -6,20, Nasdaq futures -8,75). Meanwhile,
crude prices are trading in a volatile manner, climbing to a gain of
more than 1% before retreating a bit to the current 0.6% advance at
$115.20 per barrel.
Wells Fargo is "highly unlikely" to pursue the acquisition of a larger
rivel, according to Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf, the Financial Times
reports.
Crude oil prices are trading up 0.5% to $115.17 per barrel following
Friday's 5.4% plunge. South Korean regulators told the Korea
Development Bank to take a cautious approach before making an
acquisition of an overseas bank after the company expressed interest in
Lehman Brothers, according to the Financial Times. In deal news,
Precision Drilling Trust is buying Grey Wolf for $2 billion in cash and
stock.
|
| 25.08 14:00 |
CRUDE OIL: down from session high at $116.05 to $115.20 |
| 25.08 13:37 |
EUR/USD: euro edge up to $1.4778 area
Light flows see the euro edge up to $1.4778 area for about a 15 pip
lift over the last hour or so, tracking the rebound in cable that is a
story unto itself. Overnight, euro traded in a broad, one big figure
range, with lows seen as cable took a hit and the rebound seen in
European hours. Euro now testing the overnight high at $1.4790, supply said positioned to $1.4800 but stops a risk above there.
|
| 25.08 13:00 |
European session: Gains in the dollar may be limited [M]
The dollar rose for a second day against the euro and the pound on
speculation a drop in oil prices will support economic growth in the
world's largest energy consumer.
The currency also traded near a seven-month high versus the yen
following the biggest decline in crude costs in more than three years.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke said Aug. 22 the central bank
will act should inflation not moderate ``in the medium term.'' The euro
fell against the yen before a survey tomorrow that may show business
confidence in Germany deteriorated to the lowest level since 2005.
Trading volumes may be lighter than usual as financial markets in London are closed for a holiday.
The euro weakened against the dollar and the yen on speculation
declines in German business confidence will discourage the European
Central Bank from raising interest rates.
The Ifo institute's confidence index probably fell to 97.2 in August,
the lowest since September 2005, according to the median estimate of
economists before the release of the report tomorrow.
``The euro has downside risks before the Ifo data,'' said Motonari
Ogawa, director of currency trading in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc.,
a unit of the U.K.'s third-biggest bank. ``European growth isn't
looking that good, so people are likely to react more to data that
support that view.''
EUR/USD made
early overnight highs at $1.4792. The move extended to $1.4720 before
a slight bounce, though the tone remained heavy as euro-dollar made
a brief show under $1.4700 late in the session, dipping to a $1.4696
low before a bounce back to $1.4720 into early Europe. Offers
$1.4790/00, stops above, offers $1.4860, bids $1.4700/1.4690
GBP/USD opened
Asia around $1.8510/15, with traders reporting strong demand ahead of
the $1.8500 barrier. A slight bounce took the pair back to $1.8440
before another dip to session lows at $1.8405. Light flows were
reported by those who were at their desks, with cable managing to
slowly claw back losses throughout the session, ending the morning
taking offers placed around the overnight breakdown point at
$1.8490/1.8500 en-route to $1.8520.
USD/JPY eased
back to test bids placed around the overnight low into early European
dealing, though the move lacked momentum, the pair subsequently
making a brief show back above Y110.00 and ending a very quiet
morning back around Y109.90. Note expiry interest at Y111.00 is said
to be around over this week and into next.opened at Y108.83. Offers
around Y110.30, Y110.50, bids - Y109.80 .
Gains in the dollar may be limited by speculation data this week
will show U.S. home sales were near the lowest in a decade and consumer
spending growth slowed as the economy grapples with rising credit
losses after the subprime mortgage collapse
Resales of existing homes, reported by the National Association of
Realtors today, gained 1% to a 4.91 million annual rate, staying near
June's 10-year low, according to a survey of economists.
|
| 25.08 12:32 |
GS: there are 3 mkt questions ahead
- whether rising initial jobless claims are indicative of labor market deterioration;
how much the fading of the fiscal stimulus drags on consumption;
whether exports continue to boost the US economy.
"We think that strong emerging market growth will be enough to keep exports growing."
|
| 25.08 12:25 |
European focus: [M]
The dollar rose for a second day against the euro and the pound on
speculation a drop in oil prices will support economic growth in the
world's largest energy consumer.
The currency also traded near a seven-month high versus the yen
following the biggest decline in crude costs in more than three years.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke said Aug. 22 the central bank
will act should inflation not moderate ``in the medium term.'' The euro
fell against the yen before a survey tomorrow that may show business
confidence in Germany deteriorated to the lowest level since 2005.
Trading volumes may be lighter than usual as financial markets in London are closed for a holiday.
The euro weakened against the dollar and the yen on speculation
declines in German business confidence will discourage the European
Central Bank from raising interest rates.
The Ifo institute's confidence index probably fell to 97.2 in August,
the lowest since September 2005, according to the median estimate of
economists before the release of the report tomorrow.
``The euro has downside risks before the Ifo data,'' said Motonari
Ogawa, director of currency trading in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc.,
a unit of the U.K.'s third-biggest bank. ``European growth isn't
looking that good, so people are likely to react more to data that
support that view.''
|
| 25.08 11:50 |
UBS about US dollar and oil prices
``The decline in oil prices has contributed to a quasi rebound in
the dollar. Also, what Bernanke said was less dovish than many people
had expected. He's still hawkish on inflation.``
|
| 25.08 11:15 |
GBP/USD:
Offers around the overnight breakdown point at $1.8490/1.8500 now
cleared as cable continues to pare back losses in thin liquidity.
Offers placed around the Asian high at $1.8520/25 now eyed as the next
target ahead of the US open.
|
| 25.08 11:01 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y111.80
Resistance 2: Y110.70
Resistance 1: Y110.30
Current price: Y109.90
Support 1: Y109.80
Support 2: Y109.20
Support 3: Y108.10
Comments: USD/JPY holds near a seven-month high. Resistance is near session
highs on Y110.30, with a break above will target Aug 15 highs on Y110.70.
Strong resistance comes at highs 2008 on Y111.80/90. Strong support comes near Y109.80
(23.6% Fibo of the Y108.10 - Y110.30 rally). Break under opens the way to Y109.20
(50%) and Y108.10 (last Thursday’s low).
|
| 25.08 10:53 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1240
Resistance 2: Chf1.1170
Resistance 1: Chf1.1040
Current price: Chf1.0985
Support 1: Chf1.0980
Support 2: Chf1.0920
Support 3: Chf1.0840
Comments: Tech on USD/CHF hasn't changed. Strong resistance
zone comes between last week’s and session’s highs on Chf1.1030/40. Above the
key level remains at channel line coming today at Chf1.1170. Next band of
resistance is around Chf1.1240. Support mentioned near Chf1.0980 (23.6% of Chf1.0840
- Chf1.1030 rise). Under the correction may dip down to Chf1.0920 (61.8%) and Chf1.0840
(last Thursday’s low).
|
| 25.08 10:31 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8780
Resistance 2: $1.8620
Resistance 1: $1.8520
Current price: $1.8480
Support 1: $1.8400
Support 2: $1.8360
Support 3: $1.8280
Comments: Key support is around $1.8400
(trend line from Nov 2007 and also session lows). Break under will accelerate
pound’s decline to $1.8360/70 (Jul 23 2006 lows). Stronger support comes at 38.2%
Fibo on $1.8280/90 ($1.3690 - $2.1130 rise). Minor resistance is near session
highs on $1.8520 with a break above will target $1.8620. Strong level is around
23.6% Fibo at $1.8770/80 ($1.9930 - $1.8410 decline and Auf 21 highs).
|
| 25.08 10:15 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4960
Resistance 2: $1.4880
Resistance 1: $1.4800
Current price: $1.4743
Support 1: $1.4695
Support 2: $1.4630
Support 3: $1.4470
Comments: Tech on euro hasn't changed. Support comes
at session low on . Support comes
at session low on $1.4695. Below losses may widen to Aug 19 lows at $1.4630/40.
Key support is around channel line from Jul 22 on $1.4470. Minor resistance is
near session high on $1.4800, with a break above opens the way to Friday’s high
on $1.4880/90. Stronger resistance comes on 23.6% Fibo level at $1.4960
($1.6030 - $1.4630 decline).
|
| 25.08 09:58 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut,
EUR/USD: $1.4850, $1.5000 USD/JPY: Y108.90, Y110.50, Y110.95 EUR/JPY: Y162.00 AUS/JPY: Y95.45
|
| 25.08 09:48 |
AUS/USD rebounds
AUS/USD dragged, taking out decent exporter
interest at $0.8630/40 down to session lows at $0.8615. Aussie has bounced back
to $0.8650 at time of writing, traders reporting decent demand at $0.8610 with
stops under last week's lows on a break of $0.8595. Offers are back at
$0.8690/0.8700 with Techs noting near-term resistance at $0.8716 (5-day m/a).
|
| 25.08 09:31 |
USD/CHF retreats
USD/CHF pushed back up towards last week's
highs overnight, the move running out of steam at Chf1.1035 and easing back to
a Chf1.0995. Traders report stops building to the topside through Chf1.1050
now, which if triggered would expose the February highs at Chf1.1105. Techs say
the rate is still rading within the upchannel from the July lows, today
coming in at Chf1.0781-Chf1.1168.
|
| 25.08 09:14 |
Orders:
EUR Bids: $1.4675/70, $1.4635/30, $1.4600 Offers: $1.4760, $1.4790/00
JPY Bids: Y109.80 Offers: Y110.30/50, Y111.00
GBP Bids: $1.8400/90
Offers: $1.8490/00
AUSSIE Bids: $0.8610, $0.8595
Offers: $0.8690/0.8700
|
| 25.08 08:49 |
Asian session: Dollar rises on speculation oil decline to support U.S. economy [M]
The dollar rose for a second day against the euro on speculation a drop in oil prices
will support growth in the world's largest energy consumer. The currency also traded near a seven-month high versus the yen following the biggest decline in
crude costs in more than three years. The euro fell against the yen before a survey tomorrow that may show
business confidence in Germany
slid to the lowest since 2005. The Ifo institute's confidence index probably
fell to 97.2 in
August, the lowest since September 2005, according to the median estimate of
economists before the release of the report
tomorrow.
EUR/USDprintedhighson$1.4795
beforeabitunder$1.4700. Bids
supported euro and rate rebounded to $1.4741.
GBP/USD fell
from $1.8530 to $1.8400 before recovered to $1.8460.
USD/JPY tested
Y110.30 before sliding to Y109.80.
Gains in the dollar may be limited by speculation data this week will show U.S.
home sales were near the lowest in a decade and consumer spending growth slowed
as the economy grapples with rising credit losses after the subprime mortgage
collapse Resales of existing homes, reported
by the National Association of Realtors today, gained 1% to a 4.91 million
annual rate, staying near June's 10-year low, according to a survey of
economists.
|
| 25.08 08:38 |
Japan's stocks closed higher
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended the
day higher, although shy of the day's best levels. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was
higher by 212.62 points, or 1.68%, at 12878.66. The broader-based TOPIX was
22.83 points higher at 1239.25.
|
| 25.08 08:29 |
COMMODITIES: weekly review
Oil prices
rallied above the $120 a barrel level last week and gold staged an impressive
rebound, dispelling some of the negative sentiment towards commodities which
has accumulated this summer. On Thursday, US
crude prices surged to a high of $122.04, amid rising geopolitical tensions
following Russia’s
decision to suspend military co-operation activities with Nato. Oil traders
remain concerned about the possibility of further disruptions to Azeri crude
supplies in spite of the end of the war in Georgia.
Crude oil fell more than $6 a barrel, dropping the most in percentage
terms since December 2004, as the U.S. dollar strengthened and BP Plc
restored shipments on a Caspian Sea pipeline through Turkey. Energy
futures fell as the rising dollar eased demand for commodities as an
inflation hedge. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which moves oil from
Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, resumed
normal flows today after a fire shut it earlier this month, a Turkish
official said. BP, Europe's
second-largest oil company, StatoilHydro ASA and partners cut output at
Caspian oil fields following the closure of the 1,768-kilometer
(1,100-mile) link on Aug. 5. The pipeline is used to carry oil from
Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey, where it's loaded onto tankers
for U.S. and European markets. BP said loadings are scheduled to begin
next week. The shutdown of the BTC pipeline was followed three days
later by Russia's invasion of Georgia, which further disrupted Caspian
fuel shipments.
Oil prices have also fallen on reduced demand in the U.S., the country
responsible for almost a quarter of global oil use. The credit crisis
has led to a higher U.S. jobless rate and slower economic growth this
year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably
increase oil supply in August by 400,000 barrels a day, or 1.2 percent,
as Iran releases crude oil held in storage, according to preliminary
estimates from PetroLogistics Ltd. OPEC will next meet to review
production targets on Sept. 9 in Vienna. Crude oil rose to $114.59 a
barrel on the week, while Brent crude oil rose to $113.92 a barrel.
Gold was up 4.7% last week (to $829.50 an ounce) after
sliding 18 percent in the previous
five weeks. Gold's gain this week is the biggest since Nov. 23, 2007.
Silver futures also rose to $13.555 an ounce. Before Friday, silver
fell 7.2% this year while gold gained 0.1%.  Base
metals traders are turning their thoughts to Chinese demand post the
Olympics and asking whether pent up activity could have a significant
impact on stocks held in LME warehouses. Zinc jumped 9% to $1,825 a
tonne last week, helped by news of production cuts that forced hedge
funds to buy back short positions. Nickel leapt 11.5% at $20,850 a
tonne, also helped by short closing.
|
| 25.08 08:05 |
STOCKS: weekly review
US stocks ended a volatile week lower
as investors continued to fret about the health of the financial sector,
particularly mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and responded to a
mixed set of earnings news and economic data. Stocks staged a rally on Friday
after a speech by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and a fall in oil
prices, but remained in negative territory for the week. In spite of the rally on Friday the S&P
500 index was down 0.5% for the week at 1,292.19 and the Nasdaq
Composite was 1.5% lower at 2,414.71. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
ended the week 0.3% lower at 11,627.49.
Friday’s stock
market rally came after Mr
Bernanke indicated the Fed should be able to
maintain its low federal funds target rate for some time, as the recent
drop in
commodity prices coupled with reduced demand for resources due to the
economic
downturn should reduce the threat of inflation. Fannie Mae shares fell
37% over the course of the week and Freddie Mac shares were down 51% at
$2.81 as speculation mounted
that the embattled mortgage lenders would have to be bailed out by the
government. The crisis surrounding Fannie and Freddie seemed to ease
slightly
on Thursday as both the equity and debt of the two US mortgage
financiers
rallied, but concerns about their long-term health remained.
Lehman Brothers
was also in sharp focus, with rumours rife that it could soon be a takeover
target. The investment bank saw its shares slump early in the week before
shooting up more than 15% on Friday on dealing room chatter in New York linking it with
bid interest from Korea Development Bank. KDB went on to acknowledge it had
been in talks with Lehman over the potential sale of a major stake in the
company. The bank continues to be surrounded by worries about its ability to
withstand losses and writedowns related to the credit crisis. Its shares fell
11% on the week. Lehman’s problems
brought other Wall Street Banks into focus. Goldman Sachs ended the week down
2.1%, Morgan Stanley was down 5% while
Citigroup fell 2.2% and Merrill Lynch was 4.1% lower. The S&P investment banking index fell 3.3% and
the S&P financials index ended 3.1% down.
In earnings news,
fast food chain Burger King Holdings posted a 42% rise in fiscal
fourth-quarter net income as customer traffic hit a 10-year high, but its
shares still fell 9.1%. Barnes &
Noble fell 5.3% after the book vendor cut its full-year
forecast and posted lower quarterly earnings. HJ Heinz, the
food maker, reported a rise of 11% in fiscal first-quarter profit
thanks to double-digit sales growth. Robust laptop
sales helped push Dow component Hewlett-Packard to a strong performance in the
third quarter, in spite of the tough economic climate. HP rose 3.2% after the company reported sales and profits that beat Wall
Street forecasts after the market closed on Tuesday.
European
stocks rose the most in two weeks as
investors speculated takeovers may
increase and a drop in oil prices boosted airlines and carmakers. HBOS
Plc led banks higher, jumping 6.3%, after Korea Development Bank
said it's ``considering'' an investment in Lehman Brothers Holdings
Inc. Hochtief AG rallied 8.5% as Manager Magazin said Germany's
biggest builder may be broken up. Benfield Group Ltd. jumped 27% after
Aon Corp., the world's biggest insurance broker, offered $1.6
billion for the U.K. company. PSA Peugeot Citroen and Deutsche
Lufthansa AG rallied at least 3% as oil retreated by more than $3 a
barrel. HBOS,
the U.K.'s biggest home-loan provider, added 6.3%.
UBS AG, the European bank hardest hit by the subprime contagion, rose
4.8%. TNT
jumped 6.9%. UPS and Europe's second-biggest
express-delivery service may meet to work out a deal over the weekend,
with the U.S. company offering 34 euros to 38 euros a share, the Times
said Friday, without citing anyone. Peugeot,
Europe's second-biggest carmaker, increased 4.4%.
Nokian Renkaat Oyj, the Nordic region's biggest tiremaker, added 4.4%.
Lufthansa, Europe's second-largest airline, climbed 3%.
Japan stocks fell, capping the Nikkei 225 Stock
Average's
biggest weekly loss in two months, on concern surging oil prices and
rising credit costs will reduce earnings at manufacturers and financial
companies. Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd. lost 2.7%, leading a decline
by makers of rubber products, after crude
jumped the most in 11 weeks. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. sank
3.6%
as Citigroup Inc. said U.S. banks will post more writedowns.
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. led shipping lines lower after Mizuho
Securities Co. cut its rating. Inpex
Holdings Co., Japan's biggest oil explorer, climbed 2.2%, the highest
since July 15. Mitsubishi Corp. added 3.2%, while smaller rival Mitsui
& Co. jumped 2.6%. Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan's
third-biggest listed bank by assets, slid, while market
leader Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. retreated 2.1%. Consumer
lender Aiful Corp. plunged 8.6%, the
lowest on record and the second-worst performer on the MSCI World
Index. Kawasaki Kisen, Japan's third-largest shipping
company, fell 3.8%, while Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd.,
the second biggest, dropped 2%.
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| 25.08 07:54 |
FOREX: weekly review
The dollar’s
sharp rally ran out of steam last week as traders booked profits after a strong
run that had seen it rise more than 4% since the start of the month. The
dollar index, which tracks its value against a basket of six major currencies,
stormed to a seven-month high on Tuesday. The dollar also
hit a six-month high of $1.4628 against the euro on Tuesday but struggled to
maintain its gains later in the week.
Nevertheless, the
dollar lost 0.9% to $1.4820 against the euro over the week, fell 0.5%
to Y109.95 against the yen and dropped 0.2% to SFr1.0950
against the Swiss franc. The dollar also
underperformed against commodity-driven currencies, losing 1.2% to
C$1.0458 against the Canadian dollar on the week, falling 0.4% to
$0.8701 against the Australian dollar and dropping 1% to $0.7130 against
the New Zealand
dollar.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Friday
that a drop in commodities, a stable dollar and slowing growth should
stem inflation. He added in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the
inflation outlook remains ``highly uncertain'' and the Fed ``is
committed to achieving medium-term price stability and will act as
necessary'' to achieve that goal.
Euro was supported by stronger-than-expected ZEW index, that rebounded to -55,5 in Aug after 16-years low in July. But the 1991 года
уровня в июле. The
euro partly weakened Friday as the European Union statistics office
said that industrial orders in the 15 countries that use the currency
fell
7.4% from a year earlier, the most since December 2001.
The pound dropped for a fifth week against the dollar, its
longest losing streak since February 2006, after a report showed British growth
stagnated in the second quarter. Sterling fell 0.7% against the dollar last week to
$1.8527 and touched $1.8505 Thursday, the lowest level since July 2006. The
U.K.'s second-quarter gross domestic product was unchanged from the first
quarter, ending the country's longest stretch of economic expansion in more
than a century. Against the euro, the pound fell 1.4%.
|
| 25.08 07:30 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y111.80 Resistance 2: Y110.70 Resistance 1: Y110.30 Current price: Y110.09 Support 1: Y109.80 Support 2: Y109.20 Support 3: Y108.10 Comments: USD/JPY holds near a seven-month high after crude extended its biggest percentage decline in more than three years. Resistance is near session highs on Y110.30, with a break above will target Aug 15 highs on Y110.70. Strong resistance comes at highs 2008 on Y111.80/90. Strong support comes near Y109.80 (23.6% Fibo of the Y108.10 - Y110.30 rally). Break under opens the way to Y109.20 (50%) and Y108.10 (last Thursday’s low).
|
| 25.08 07:19 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1240 Resistance 2: Chf1.1170 Resistance 1: Chf1.1040 Current price: Chf1.1010 Support 1: Chf1.0980 Support 2: Chf1.0920 Support 3: Chf1.0840 Comments: USD/CHF holds within the upward channel from Jul 16. But gains in the dollar may be limited by speculation data this week will show U.S. home sales were near the lowest in a decade and consumer spending growth slowed as the world's largest economy grapples with rising credit losses after the subprime mortgage collapse. Resales of existing homes, gained 1% to a 4.91 million annual rate (June's 10-year low), according to the median estimate of economists. Strong resistance zone comes between last week’s and session’s highs on Chf1.1030/40. Above the key level remains at channel line coming today at Chf1.1170. Next band of resistance is around Chf1.1240. Support mentioned near Chf1.0980 (23.6% of Chf1.0840 - Chf1.1030 rise). Under the correction may dip down to Chf1.0920 (61.8%) and Chf1.0840 (last Thursday’s low).
|
| 25.08 07:05 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8780 Resistance 2: $1.8620 Resistance 1: $1.8520 Current price: $1.8428 Support 1: $1.8410 Support 2: $1.8360 Support 3: $1.8280 Comments: GBP/USD extends 5-weeks sell-off Monday, the longest loosing streak since Feb 2006). The pound was dragged down after the weak economic data released last week, when the government report showed the U.K.'s second-quarter gross domestic product was unchanged from the first quarter (lowest since the 2Q of 1992), while analysts predicted the 0.2% rise q/q. Key support is around $1.8410/20 (trend line from Nov 2007 and also session lows). Break under will accelerate pound’s decline to $1.8360/70 (Jul 23 2006 lows). Stronger support comes at 38.2% Fibo on $1.8280/90 ($1.3690 - $2.1130 rise). Minor resistance is near session highs on $1.8520 with a break above will target $1.8620. Strong level is around 23.6% Fibo at $1.8770/80 ($1.9930 - $1.8410 decline and Auf 21 highs).
|
| 25.08 06:55 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4960 Resistance 2: $1.4880 Resistance 1: $1.4800 Current price: $1.4716 Support 1: $1.4710 Support 2: $1.4630 Support 3: $1.4470 Comments: The dollar rose for a second day against the euro on speculation a drop in oil prices will support growth in the world's largest consumer of the fuel. The euro fell before a survey that may show business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slid to the lowest in almost three years. The Ifo institute's confidence index probably fell to 97.2 in August, the lowest since September 2005, according to the median estimate of economists. Support comes at session low on $1.4710/20. Below losses may widen to Aug 19 lows at $1.4630/40. Key support is around channel line from Jul 22 on $1.4470. Minor resistance is near session high on $1.4800, with a break above opens the way to Friday’s high on $1.4880/90. Stronger resistance comes on 23.6% Fibo level at $1.4960 ($1.6030 - $1.4630 decline).
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| 25.08 06:43 |
Major European bourses are initially seen flat to modestly lower Monday, with London markets closed for a public holiday: the DAX and STOXX 50 |
| 25.08 06:24 |
Daily History for Aug 22, 2008
High Low Close EUR/USD 1.4899 1.4755 1.4774 USD/JPY 110.13 108.41 110.04 GBP/USD 1.8779 1.8503 1.8508 USD/CHF 1.0999 1.0861 1.0986
EUR/JPY 163.08 161.41 162.57 EUR/GBP 0.7987 0.7919 0.7979 GBP/JPY 204.58 202.75 203.68 GBP/CHF 2.0430 2.0281 2.0335
Change % Change Last Nikkei 225 -61.33 (-0.68%) 12666.04 DAX 30 +105.46 (+1.69%) 6342.42 САС 40 +95.84 (+2.23%) 4400.45 FTSE 100 +135.40 (+2.52%) 5505.60 Dow +197.85 (+1.73%) 11628.06 Nasdaq +34.33 (+1.44%) 2414.71 S&P +14.48 (+1.13%) 1292.20 10YR 96 -11/32 101 1/32 3.87% OIL NYMEX -6.59 -5.44% $114.59
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| 25.08 06:09 |
Schedule for today, Monday, Aug 25, 2008
UK Summer Bank Holiday 14:00 USA Existing home sales (July), mln 4.92 4.86
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