Stiri financiare

American International Group Inc
The insurer has received approval from the Federal Reserve Bank of N.Y. for an initial public offering of American International Assurance Co. and American Life Insurance Co., its international life insurance divisions. The Fed will receive preferred interests of $16B for AIA and $9B for Alico.

Best Buy Co Inc
The home furnishings retailer reported first-quarter net income of $87.2M, or 34 cents a share - above analysts’ forecasts - up from $76.8M, or 30 cents a share, a year ago. Sales rose 2.8% to $1.69B.

Morgan Stanley
Barclays Capital cut its estimate of second quarter earnings at the brokerage. Analyst Roger A. Freeman revised his forecast to a loss of 70 cents a share from earnings of 40 cents, driven mostly "by the TARP-repayment one-time preferred dividend," estimated at 77 cents.

NIKE Inc
The athletic gear maker reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income fell 30% to $341.4M, or 70 cents a share – well below analysts’ forecasts - from $490.5M, or 98 cents a share, for the year-earlier period.

Barclays Capital looks for U.S Treasury rates to drift higher for the remainder of 2009 but a variety of factors will keep 10-year yields capped at 4.25% on the upside

Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only the financial sector is trading with a gain of less than 1%. Though financials are up a healthy 0.7%, the next closest sector by percentage gain is the telecom sector, which is up 1.0%.
Diversified financial services stocks (-0.1%) are weighing on the financial sector. Such heavyweights as Citigroup (-0.03), JP Morgan Chase (+0.12), and Bank of America (-0.05) have lagged the broader market for the entire session.

Nomura says 627k jobless claims leaves 4-week moving average at 617k, "well below its peak of about 660k - a strong signal that job market conditions have stabilized."

Now topping $1.4000 area for trade to $1.4006 or so as earlier mentioned stops are targeted. Talk of further stops above $1.4010/20 matched by vaguer talk of "good" offers in the same area.

Crude oil: WTI Nymex $70.83 (+$2.16)

The yen declined against all of its major counterparts on bets U.S., European and Chinese central banks’ efforts to stabilize the global economy will spur demand for higher-yielding assets.
The dollar rose against the yen for a second day after the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday that it doesn’t plan to increase the purchase of bonds and the pace of economic contraction is slowing.
The U.S. central bank held the target rate for overnight lending between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent for a fourth consecutive meeting. It kept the $1.75 trillion bond- buying program unchanged.
The European Central Bank said yesterday it will lend banks 442 billion euros ($621 billion) for 12 months, the most it ever allotted in an auction. In China, the People’s Bank said today it will maintain a “moderately loose” monetary policy to support the recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy.
The Australian dollar gained 0.7 percent to 76.76 yen after the International Monetary Fund raised its outlook yesterday for the South Pacific nation’s economy, saying it will shrink less than forecast this year and grow in 2010 at more than double the anticipated pace.

Dow +136.79 at 8436.65, Nasdaq +27.42 at 1819.76, S&P +15.05 at 915.99

Bernanke testimony continues as he defends Fed actions by saying that without Fed actions would have had depression; greater oversight is needed for big banks.

Ahead of that holiday, markets will observe normal trading sessions on Thursday July 2, the day that the US payrolls report will be released.

Wachovia Bank sees falling probablility of recession, says probablility is now 37%.

Technology, retail and homebuilding were among the stocks leading the early advance. But weakness in the influential financial sector put a cap on the gains.
Investors were also still reacting to Wednesday's Federal Reserve news. The Fed held interest rates near zero and said the pace of the recession is slowing. But the central bank did not announce an expansion of a program meant to keep spiking bond yields in check and that disappointed some investors.
Worries that rising bond yields -- tied to mortgage rates -- could derail a recovery have put some caution into the stock market after a 3-month rally that lifted the S&P 500 40% off of 12-year lows.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose 15,000 to 627,000 last week, surprising economists who thought claims would fall to 600,000.
Continuing claims, a measure of Americans receiving benefits for a week or more, rose to 6,738,000, after dropping in the previous week.
Another government report showed the first-quarter gross domestic product growth shrank at a slower pace than initially thought. GDP shrank at an annual rate of 5.5% versus the initially reported 5.7% decline. Economists expected no change.
A number of retail and homebuilder stocks rose in morning trading.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reported higher quarterly earnings late Wednesday that topped expectations, as cost cutting countered the impact of slowing demand. Shares gained 10% in active Nasdaq trading Thursday.
Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss and a smaller-than-expected drop in revenue. Shares rallied 14%.
ConAgra (CAG) reported weaker fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that missed expectations, sending shares of the packaged food company down by 6%.
Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.66% from 3.68%.
U.S. light crude oil for August delivery rose 77 cents to $69.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for August delivery rose $1.20 to $935.60 an ounce.
In global trade, Asian markets ended higher and European markets were lower in afternoon trading.

Nomura says Q1 had "smaller drags from inventories and government spending."

The major indices remain in positive territory and continue to trade with respectable gains. However, the Nasdaq Composite is outperforming its counterparts for the second straight session, thanks largely to strength in large-cap tech issues.
Microsoft (MSFT 23.58, +0.11) is among the primary leaders in the Nasdaq. The software and programming giant outlined today its revenue recognition for its new Windows program. Microsoft said that for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 it will defer an estimated $200 million to $300 million of revenue.
Shares of MSFT recently had their target raised by analysts at Oppenheimer.
While large-cap tech is showing strength, financial stocks are showing weakness. The financial sector is currently down 0.6% as bank stocks come under pressure. Weakness among bank stocks has the KBW Bank Index down 0.8%.

MS says Q1 GDP data had "negative implications for Q2 -- in particular final sales were revised down less than expected, while inventories were surprisingly adjusted higher. The unanticipated upward adjustment to Q1 inventories has small negative implications for our current Q2 GDP forecast of -0.8%."

Crude continues to trade in positive territory and is trading just under morning highs of $69.75 per barrel. Overnight, crude received some price support on news that Nigerian rebels attacked a Shell pipeline.
Natural gas spiked at the open, but has pushed to a new session high of $3.95 per contract following weekly inventory data. Weekly inventory was just released at 10:30ET, which showed a small build of 94 bcf, below analyst expectations of 101 bcf.
Precious metals are trading with little volatility this morning as both metals are modestly higher. August gold is showing gains of 0.4% as it trades at $938.00 per ounce, while July silver is 0.2% higher at $13.98 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.4000, $1.4150, $1.3960
USD/JPY Y96.00, Y96.60, Y95.00, Y94.75
EUR/JPY Y133.75, Y133.60, Y140.75
GBP/USD $1.6460, $1.6500
AUD/USD $0.7850
USD/CAD C$1.1525

After pausing at the neutral line, stocks have managed to push into positive territory to trade with solid gains. Thanks to strength in retailers, now up 2.5%, consumer discretionary stocks remain in the lead with a 1.3% gain.
Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.79, +2.78) and Lennar (LEN 8.83, +1.01) are primary leaders among consumer discretionary holdings. Bed, Bath & Beyond has found favor after it posted better-than-expected earnings results for its latest quarter. Lennar has mustered strong gains even though it announced a worse-than-expected quarterly loss.
The strength in shares of BBBY and LEN has helped overshadow such threats to consumer spending as challenging labor conditions.

RDQ says after jobless claims they est payrolls at -400k.

The metal has took its lead from the DXY initially this morning, dropping after the open, then bouncing from around $932/oz as the dollar turned downward. Spot gold is now seeing some resistance above $936/oz, and is currently up $3.76 at $935.16.

FTSE-100 down 52pts (-1.2%), CAC-40 down 64pts (-2.0%), and Xetra-DAX down 98pts (-2.0%).

Stocks ended mixed Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left its key short-term interest rate unchanged, but did not elaborate on plans aimed at keeping long-term rates from spiking.
The Labor Department's weekly report on jobless claims showed an increase of 15,000 to 627,000 in the week ended June 20. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting first-time unemployment benefits to slip to 600,000.
At the same time, the government's revised reading on first-quarter GDP growth showed the economy shrank at an annual rate of 5.5%. This is compared to the 5.7% decline forecast by Briefing.com's economist consensus.
After the opening bell, Bernanke will testify before the House Oversight Committee regarding Bank of America (BAC)'s purchase of Merrill Lynch last year.
Companies: Packaged food company ConAgra (CAG) reported fiscal fourth-quarter profit of 39 cents per share, missing Wall Street estimates. Analysts forecast that the company earned 42 cents per share in the quarter versus 44 cents a year earlier.
ConAgra forecast that diluted EPS from continuing operations would be $1.63 to $1.66 for fiscal year 2010, excluding certain items.
Consulting firm Accenture and smartphone maker Palm are due to report earnings after the closing bell.
Accenture (ACN) is forecast to report third-quarter earnings of 64 cents per share, down from 74 cents in the prior year.
Palm (PALM) is seen reporting a loss of 62 cents per share for its fiscal fourth quarter. That compares with a loss of 22 cents a year earlier.
Asian stocks ended sharply higher, with Tokyo's Nikkei index up more than 2%. European markets were lower in midday trading.
Oil for August delivery was up 75 cents to $69.42 a barrel.

Eases to fresh lows for the session around $1.3915 area as risk trades are pared back in the wake of the weekly jobless claims data that disappointed with a bounce higher, against expectations (educational layoffs related to the school year, see data bullet). Area of $1.3900/05 earlier said to hold demand interest now that bids at $1.3920/25 are filled.

US: Jobless claims +15k to 627k

US: Q1 GDP revision was -5.5%

Data:
07:30 Italy Business confidence (June) 69.3 69.5 68.7
09:00 EU(16) Industrial orders (April) -1,0% 0.0% -0.8%
09:00 EU(16) Industrial orders (April) Y/Y -35.5% -33.9% -26.9

European stocks fell as the Federal Reserve disappointed investors by refraining from increasing bond purchases and the International Monetary Fund said banks in Ireland face losses of as much as $49 billion through 2010.
“The decline is linked to the Fed’s commentary and the fact that there are no new elements to justify further gains,” said Chicuong Dang, an analyst at KBL Richelieu Gestion in Paris, which oversees about $2.2 billion. “It’s best to remain cautious.” Bank of Ireland dropped 5.3 percent to 1.80 euros, while Allied Irish slid 2.7 percent to 1.81 euros. Ireland’s banks face losses of as much as 35 billion euros ($49 billion) through 2010 as the economy shrinks at an “unprecedented” pace, according to the IMF.
The yen fell the most in three weeks against the euro after the Federal Reserve signaled yesterday the recession is easing, damping demand for the Japanese currency as a refuge in favor of higher-yielding assets.
The yen also declined against the Australian dollar and Brazil’s real after a government report showed Japanese investors bought more securities abroad than they sold for a seventh week. The Swiss franc fell for a second day against the dollar and the euro on speculation the nation’s central bank stepped up sales of the currency to keep it from strengthening.
“The Fed’s statement was soothing for risk appetite,” said Paul Robson, a London-based currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “The knee-jerk reaction will be to buy risk.” The yen weakened 0.8 percent to 134.32 per euro as of 7:27 a.m. in New York, after falling to 134.82 in its biggest decline since June 1. It depreciated 0.8 percent to 96.43 per dollar. Japan’s currency slid 0.6 percent to 76.68 versus Australia’s dollar and weakened 1 percent to 49.0107 per real. The dollar traded at $1.3933 per euro, from $1.3930.
The Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday it doesn’t plan to increase purchase of bonds as part of its quantitative easing strategy and “the pace of economic contraction is slowing,” providing more evidence the U.S. slump is easing.
The Euro's decline against the Dollar from 1.3985 has continued to post 1.3921 as new intra-day low and tests 1.3920 support (MA200 level in the hourly chart) in a 65 pips down movement, losing all the initial gains. Currently the pair is trading around 1.3925/35, 0.10% below todays opening price.

Pound has declined further in the European session after posting 1.6600 high yesterday. Today, cable is falling 1.10% so far today from 1.6435 opening price to levels below 1.6250. Currently the pair is trading around 1.6245/55.

Dollar rally from 95.00 low yesterday has reached resistance level at 96.50 level which so far remains intact. At the moment, the Yen trades at 96.40, 0.75% above its opening level.

European stocks fell as the Federal Reserve disappointed investors by refraining from increasing bond purchases and the International Monetary Fund said banks in Ireland face losses of as much as $49 billion through 2010.
“The decline is linked to the Fed’s commentary and the fact that there are no new elements to justify further gains,” said Chicuong Dang, an analyst at KBL Richelieu Gestion in Paris, which oversees about $2.2 billion. “It’s best to remain cautious.” Bank of Ireland dropped 5.3 percent to 1.80 euros, while Allied Irish slid 2.7 percent to 1.81 euros. Ireland’s banks face losses of as much as 35 billion euros ($49 billion) through 2010 as the economy shrinks at an “unprecedented” pace, according to the IMF.

EUR/USD: $1.4000, $1.4150, $1.3960
USD/JPY: Y96.00, Y96.60, Y95.00, Y94.75
EUR/JPY: Y133.75, Y133.60, Y140.75
GBP/USD: $1.6460, $1.6500
AUD/USD:$0.7850

EUR/USD
Bids: $1.3985, $1.4040/50, $1.4080
Offers: $1.3925/20, $1.3905/00, $1.3870
USD/JPY
Bids: Y96.60, Y96.90/00
Offers: Y96.10/00, Y95.62

GERMANY: Saxony June CPI +0.2% m/m, +0.1% y/y; May +0.2% y/y

having covered the $68.11 - $69.05 range so far in the session. Yesterday's EIA inventory data, which showed a 3.9m/bls decline in crude stocks, is seen as relatively bullish compared with expectations, although it did little to help prices for the majority of Asian trade. The commodity has bounced from around $68.50/bbl this morning, with bulls looking for a break above $69/bbl for further push to the upside. The front light sweet contract is currently up 25 cents at $69.02.

The yen fell the most in three weeks against the euro after the Federal Reserve signaled yesterday the recession is easing, damping demand for the Japanese currency as a refuge in favor of higher-yielding assets. The yen also declined against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg after a government report showed Japanese investors bought more securities abroad than they sold for a seventh week. The Swiss franc traded near a one-month low against the dollar on speculation the nation’s central bank will keep intervening to stop the currency from rising. “The Fed’s statement was soothing for risk appetite,” said Paul Robson, a London-based currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “The knee-jerk reaction will be to buy risk.” The franc traded at 1.0964 per dollar from 1.0979 yesterday, when it fell to 1.1023, the lowest level since May 21. The U.S. currency traded at $1.3937 per euro from $1.3930.

FTSE -23.00 (-0.53%) at 4,257, CAC -29.00 (-0.92%) at 3,156, Dax -55.00 (-1.15%) at 4,778

Resistance 3: Y97.80
Resistance 2: Y97.20
Resistance 1: Y96.50
Current price: Y96.30
Support 1: Y95.60
Support 2: Y94.80
Support 3: Y93.80
COMMENTS: Techs without changes.Dollar tries to rise with resistance comes at Y96.50. Stronger level is near Friday’s highs on Y97.20. Break above will open the way to Y97.80. Support comes at session lows on Y95.60. Below – at Y94.80 (Jun 23 lows). Break under will target May 22 lows on Y93.80.

Resistance 3:Chf1.1260
Resistance 2:Chf1.1150
Resistance 1:Chf1.1020
Current price: Chf 1.0980
Support 1:Chf1.0930
Support 2:Chf1.0820
Support 3:Chf1.0630
СOMMENTS: Techs without changes. Dollar holds under session highs after yesterday’s rally. Strong resistance comes near Wednesday’s highs on Chf1.1020 (also 38.2% Fibo of Chf1.1720 - Chf1.0590 decline). Above the bullish momentum strengthens and opens the way to Chf1.1150 (50%). Further resistance comes at May 18 highs. Support comes at Chf1.0930 (23.6% Fibo of yesterday’s rally), stronger one – on Chf1.0820 50%) and Chf1.0630 (Wednesday’s low).

Resistance 3:$1.6660
Resistance 2:$1.6600
Resistance 1:$1.6360
Current price: $1.6319
Support 1: $1.6210
Support 2: $1.6100
Support 3:$1.5800
COMMENTS: Sterling is dropping fast on early European session.The nearest support is near $1.6210 (Tuesday’s low). Stronger support is near $1.6100. The basic support is on $1.5800 (low 08.06.09). Resistance comes at $1.6360 (yesterday’s lows).Stronger level is on $1.6600/10, then – at $1.6660.

FTSE -14.00 (-0.32%) at 4,266, CAC -25.00 (-0.77%) at 3,160, Dax -40.00 (-0.83%) at 4,796

1999, disappointing most analysts' expectations for a recovery,
according to preliminary seasonally adjusted data released Thursday by
Eurostat.
--EMU April industry new orders -1.0% m/m, -35.5% y/y
--EMU March industry orders revised up to -0.2% m/m (-0.8%)
--EMU April orders ex-ships/rail/aerospace -0.9% m/m, -35.3% y/y
--EMU April industry orders -1.5% vs 1Q avg; 1q -11.3% q/q

Resistance 3:$1.4260
Resistance 2:$1.4140
Resistance 1:$1.4010
Current price: $1.3954
Support 1: $1.3880
Support 2: $1.3820
Support 3: $1.3740
COMMENTS: Techs without changes. Rate tries to recover after yesterday’s decline. Resistance comes at 50% Fibo of Wednesday’s fall at $1.4010. Stronger level is near $1.4140 (Wednesday’s high), then – at $1.4260 (Jun 05 high). Support is around yesterday’s lows on $1.3880, stronger one – on $1.3820 (Jun 22 low) and $1.3740 (Jun 16 lows).

and it has lost about 140 pips on rejection from 1.6465 to drop to intra-day low at 1.6320. Initial support level lies at 1.6300 and below there the Pound will have its path open towards the bottom of the last two-weeks trading channel at 1.1.6185/05. On the upside, penitential recovery could meet resistance at 1.6360 (Jun 24 low) and above here, 1.6400/15 and 1.6465/70.

Hang Seng Index ends up 2.14% at 18,275.03 on Thursday.

The yen fell the most in three weeks against the euro after a government report showed Japanese investors bought more securities abroad than they sold for a seventh week. The yen extended this quarter’s loss versus the euro to 2.5% as Japanese investors bought 336.1 billion yen ($3.5 billion) more foreign bonds, stocks and short-term securities than they sold in the week to June 20.
Australia’s dollar gained as the International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the economy.
The Swiss franc traded near a one-month low against the dollar on speculation the nation’s central bank will keep intervening to stop the currency from rising.
The dollar climbed the most in a week versus the yen after Japan’s Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said the nation’s faith in a strong dollar and its trust in the greenback as the world’s reserve currency is “unshakable.”
The dollar extended this year’s gain against the yen to 6.2% after the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday it doesn’t plan to increase purchase of bonds and “the pace of economic contraction is slowing,” providing more evidence the U.S. slump is easing.

EUR/USD holds within the $1.3930/80 range after yesterday’s fall.

GBP/USD initially set stable near $1.6420/64 before the rate reprinted session lows near $1.6330.

USD/JPY rose from Y95.60 to Y96.50.

In Europe investors’ attention will be on EU inductrial production numbers.
At 12:30 GMT focus will be on final US GDP estimates for the Ш quarter. Analysts predict growth remains unchanged at -5.7%.

EUR/USD: $1.4000, $1.4150, $1.3960
USD/JPY: Y96.00, Y96.60, Y95.00, Y94.75
EUR/JPY: Y133.75, Y133.60, Y140.75
AUS/USD: $0.7850

Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's session higher, helped by dip-buying and a weaker yen and improved sentiment towards a speedy global economic recovery. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 205.76 points, or 2.15%, to stand at 9796.08. The broader-based TOPIX was 17.31 points higher at 919.77.

Majors close
Nikke +40.71 +0.43% 9,590.32
Topix +0.77 +0.08% 902.46
FTSE +49.96 +1.18% 4,279.98
CAC +67.94 +2.18% 3,184.76
Dax +128.86 +2.74% 4,836.01
Dow -23.05 -0.28% 8,299.86
NASDAQ +27.42 +1.55% 1,792.34
S&P +5.84 +0.65% 900.94
10yr Note +0.4500 +0.124% 3.685%
NYMEX Crude Oil -0.57 -0.82% 68.67
Gold +10.10 +1.09% 934.40

Japanese stocks rose as gains by electronics makers on the weakening yen offset a decline by retailers on concern discounts will reduce sales.
Canon Inc. rose 2.6% as the weaker yen boosted its earnings outlook. Showa Shell Sekiyu KK soared 6.1% after saying it will build solar power plants in Saudi Arabia. Seven & I Holdings Co., operator of the 7-Eleven convenience-store chain, sank 2.2% after saying it will shoulder part of the cost to throw away expired foods. Uny Co. sank 3.4% after the Nikkei newspaper said retailers plan to cut prices. Almost half of Japanese retailers surveyed by Nikkei plan to cut prices this year, the newspaper said today. That preceded a report by the Bank of Japan saying prices Japanese businesses pay for services, such as deliveries and rent, declined at a record pace last month.
Toray Industries Inc., which supplies carbon fiber material for Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner, lost 1.3%. Boeing Co. said the aircraft, already two years behind schedule, will miss its June 30 first-flight target and a new delivery timetable won’t be available for weeks.

European stocks rose the most in three weeks after U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly increased and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development boosted its forecasts for the global economy.
Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, gained 5.6% as metals climbed. SAP AG, the world’s biggest maker of business-management software, added 3.2% as Oracle’s Corp.’s earnings lifted technology companies.
BNP Paribas SA climbed 4.5%. France’s largest bank was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Societe Generale SA, which said it should continue to benefit from “strong growth” in the fixed income market.
Investors are returning to the options market to hedge against declines in equities amid signs the chance of “large” falls is increasing as the economic recovery falters, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
Downside skew, which gauges the relative cost of buying insurance against a slide in stocks, is now higher than it was when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped to a 12-year low on March 9. That indicates a “relatively high chance of downside moves,” the brokerage wrote in a report dated yesterday.Federal Reserve officials today may seek to reassure investors they can keep short-term interest rates at a record low without igniting inflation. The Fed’s Open Market Committee, concluding a two-day meeting, might stress that increasing slack in the economy will contain consumer prices into next year, analysts said.

Most U.S. stocks rose as durable goods orders unexpectedly jumped and earnings topped estimates at Oracle Corp. Equities pared gains and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as the Federal Reserve disappointed investors by not increasing its bond-purchase program.

Oracle, the second-largest software maker, rallied 7%. General Electric Co. and Caterpillar Inc. advanced as the 1.8% increase in bookings for goods meant to last several years added to evidence the recession is easing.
Boeing Co. plunged for a second day after delaying the first flight of its 787 Dreamliner, leading declines in the Dow.
Benchmark indexes rose earlier even after purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May as builder discounts failed to keep pace with the foreclosure-driven slump in prices for resales.“We still have a high inventory situation” said David Heupel, who helps manage $60 billion at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans in Minneapolis.
Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in May, the government reported Wednesday morning. Economists thought orders would fall 0.9%. Orders rose a revised 1.8% in April as well. May new home sales fell to a 342,000 annualized unit rate from 344,000 in April. Economists thought sales would rise to a 360,000 rate.

Data released
07:30 Italy Consumer confidence (June) 105.4 104.7 104.9
08:00 Italy Retail sales (April) adjusted -0.4% 0.1% 0.2 (0.1)%
08:00 Italy Retail sales (April) Y/Y unadjusted -0.6% - -4.5 (-5.2)%
08:00 EU(16) Current account (April) adjusted, bln -5.9 - -7.0 (-6.5)
08:00 EU(16) Current account (April) unadjusted, bln -9.2 - -4.0 (-3.5)
10:00 UK CBI retail sales volume balance (June) -17% - -17%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders (May) 1.8% -0.9% 1.8 (1.9)%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding transportation (May) 1.1% - 0.8%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding defence (May) 1.4% - 1.0%
14:00 USA New home sales (May) 342K 360K 344 (352)K
18:15 USA FOMC meeting announcement 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25%

The Swiss franc fell against all of its most-traded counterparts on speculation the Swiss National Bank sold the currency to support the economy less than a week after Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth said policy makers will act to restrict any “irrational appreciation.”
The U.S. central bank kept its target rate for overnight lending between banks close to zero and maintain up to $300 billion in Treasury purchases.
FOMC's policy directive indicated that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period of time, but that the pace of economic contraction is slowing.

EUR/USD printed highs at $1.4140 before falling to $1.4010. After some range-bound within the $1.4000/70 range, the rate fell to a new daily lows near $1.3890.

GBP/USD initially rose to $6590. Rate failed to break above the figure and declined to $1.6360.

USD/JPY rose to Y95.60 before sliding to Y95.00. Later rate slowly rose to Y96.00. But later it retreated to Y95.50.

In Europe investors’ attention will be on EU inductrial production numbers.
At 12:30 GMT focus will be on final US GDP estimates for the Ш quarter. Analysts predict growth remains unchanged at -5.7%.

Resistance 3: Y97.80
Resistance 2: Y97.20
Resistance 1: Y96.50
Current price: Y96.31
Support 1: Y95.60
Support 2: Y94.80
Support 3: Y93.80
COMMENTS: Dollar tries to rise with resistance comes at Y96.50. Stronger level is near Friday’s highs on Y97.20. Break above will open the way to Y97.80. Support comes at session lows on Y95.60. Below – at Y94.80 (Jun 23 lows). Break under will target May 22 lows on Y93.80.

Resistance 3:Chf1.1260
Resistance 2:Chf1.1150
Resistance 1:Chf1.1020
Current price: Chf 1.0943
Support 1:Chf1.0930
Support 2:Chf1.0820
Support 3:Chf1.0630
СOMMENTS: Dollar holds under session highs after yesterday’s rally. Strong resistance comes near Wednesday’s highs on Chf1.1020 (also 38.2% Fibo of Chf1.1720 - Chf1.0590 decline). Above the bullish momentum strengthens and opens the way to Chf1.1150 (50%). Further resistance comes at May 18 highs. Support comes at Chf1.0930 (23.6% Fibo of yesterday’s rally), stronger one – on Chf1.0820 50%) and Chf1.0630 (Wednesday’s low).

Resistance 3:$1.6800
Resistance 2:$1.6660
Resistance 1:$1.6600
Current price: $1.6419
Support 1: $1.6360
Support 2: $1.6210
Support 3: $1.6100
COMMENTS: Sterling set stable Thursday morning after yesterday’s decline. Resistance comes at yesterday’s highs on $1.6600/10, then – at $1.6660. Stronger level is around $1.6800 (50% Fibo of $2.0144 - $1.3470 decline). Minor support is at yesterday’s lows on $1.6360. Stronger support is near $1.6210 (Tuesday’s low).

Resistance 3:$1.4260
Resistance 2:$1.4140
Resistance 1:$1.4010
Current price: $1.3954
Support 1: $1.3880
Support 2: $1.3820
Support 3: $1.3740
COMMENTS: Rate tries to recover after yesterday’s decline. Resistance comes at 50% Fibo of Wednesday’s fall at $1.4010. Stronger level is near $1.4140 (Wednesday’s high), then – at $1.4260 (Jun 05 high). Support is around yesterday’s lows on $1.3880, stronger one – on $1.3820 (Jun 22 low) and $1.3740 (Jun 16 lows).

Major European bourses are seen trading lower Thursday, reflecting the Dow's post-FOMC slide: the FTSE down 15, the DAX down 40, the CAC down 17 and the Eurostoxx 50 down 10.

High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.4136 1.3887 1.3927
GBP/USD 1.6598 1.6365 1.6403
USD/JPY 95.97 95.03 95.64
USD/CHF 1.1019 1.0631 1.0978

EUR/JPY 134.96 132.97 133.20
EUR/GBP 0.8567 0.8471 0.8489
GBP/JPY 158.20 156.13 156.88
GBP/CHF 1.8110 1.7522 1.8011

Change % Change Last
Nikke +40.71 +0.43% 9,590.32
Topix +0.77 +0.08% 902.46
FTSE +49.96 +1.18% 4,279.98
CAC +67.94 +2.18% 3,184.76
Dax +128.86 +2.74% 4,836.01
Dow -23.05 -0.28% 8,299.86
NASDAQ +27.42 +1.55% 1,792.34
S&P +5.84 +0.65% 900.94
10yr Note +0.4500 +0.124% 3.685%
NYMEX Crude Oil -0.57 -0.82% 68.67
Gold +10.10 +1.09% 934.40

06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (June) 0.2% 1.2%
06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (June) Y/Y -10.1% -11.3%
07:30 Italy Business confidence (June) 69.5 68.7
09:00 EU(16) Industrial orders (April) 0.0% -0.8%
09:00 EU(16) Industrial orders (April) Y/Y -33.9% -26.9
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 20.06) 615K 608K
12:30 USA GDP (Q1) final Y/Y -5.7% -5.7%
12:30 USA PCE price index (Q1) final - -1.0%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q1) final - 1.5%
20:30 USA M2 money supply (15.06), bln - +4.4
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (May) - 0.1%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (May) Y/Y -1.1% -0.1%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI ex fresh food (May) Y/Y -1.1% -0.1%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (June) - -0.2%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (June) Y/Y -1.3% -0.8%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI ex fresh food (June) Y/Y -1.0% -0.7%