| 25.06 20:14 |
Hot Stocks: American Express Company, Boeing Co
American
Express Company, the credit card processor announced that MasterCard
will pay it as much as $1.8B to settle an antitrust lawsuit, as it
warned credit losses may increase as business conditions deteriorate.
Boeing
Co, the second-largest U.S. defense contractor was downgraded to
``conviction sell'' from ``neutral'' by Goldman, citing weakness in the
economy and high fuel prices.
The U.K. bank Barclays PLC
will raise about $8.86B through a share issue that will include Asian
and Middle-East sovereign wealth funds to shore up its weakened balance
sheet.
AT&T Inc, the biggest U.S. phone company was upgraded to ``outperform'' By Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
|
| 25.06 19:43 |
Main events of FOMC’s statement
- Infl expectations risks "have increased"
- Downside risks to growth remain
- "Overall econ activity continues to expand"
- Vote was 9-1. Fisher again dissents, says wants a rate hike now
|
| 25.06 19:20 |
FOMC: Discount rate 2.25% |
| 25.06 19:19 |
FOMC: Key lending rate 2%, as expected |
| 25.06 19:09 |
Before FOMC’s rate decision EUR/USD holds at $1.5580, GBP/USD at $1.9680 and USD/JPY at Y108.15 |
| 25.06 18:53 |
Dow +48.69 at 11856.12, Nasdaq +33.73 at 2402.01, S&P +11.41 at 1325.70
The stock market continues to sport a solid gain, though off its best
level of the session. The S&P 500 is currently up 0.9%, down a bit
from the 1.1% advance it was boasting earlier in the session.
Seven of the ten economic sectors are trading in the green.
Financials (+2.0%) continue to extend yesterday's gains. Dow Jones
components Bank of America and Citigroup are outpacing fellow
components.
|
| 25.06 18:16 |
Dow +64.73 at 11871.67, Nasdaq +39.10 at 2407.16, S&P +13.06 at 1327.31
The stock market climbs
toward its session high. The materials sector (-1.1%) is
underperforming. Agriculture company Monsanto (MON 128.11, -7.68)
reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its 2008 earnings
outlook. However, shares are down 5.6% as investors take some profits
following the stock's 22% gain since late April.
The 1.5% drop in commodities is also weighing on material stocks. Crude is down 2.9% and gold is down 1.4%.
|
| 25.06 17:53 |
American focus: Dollar little changed versus euro before Fed decision on rates
The dollar was little changed against the euro before the Federal
Reserve ends a two-day meeting at which policy makers are forecast to
keep the target lending rate at the lowest level in more than three
years.
The greenback pared its decline versus the euro and rose against the
yen as crude oil prices fell on an unexpected increase in inventories,
reducing the need to sell the U.S. currency as a hedge against
inflation.
``The Fed will fall short of the most hawkish of expectations,'' said
Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency research at Wells Fargo & Co. in
New York. ``The dollar will come under a little bit of pressure.''
The dollar was supported as a drop in crude oil prices prompted traders
to unwind bets on rising inflation. A U.S. government report showing
inventories increased for the first time in six weeks sent crude oil
for August delivery down 3.1 percent to $132.82 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
The Fed will keep the 2 percent target lending rate unchanged today,
all economists predict. The chance policy makers will increase
borrowing costs by a quarter-percentage point is 10 percent, compared
with 14 percent odds a week ago, futures contracts on the Chicago Board
of Trade show. The chance the Fed will raise the rate by at least a
quarter-percentage point in August is 39 percent.
New home sales fell to an annual pace of 512,000 in May, from a revised
525,000 the prior month, the Commerce Department reported today in
Washington.
Orders for durable goods excluding transportation items dropped 0.9
percent in May after a revised 1.9 percent increase the prior month,
the Commerce Department also said. The median forecast of 38 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decrease of 1 percent.
``Due to the underlying growth concerns, it will be very difficult for
the Fed to hike rates this year,'' said Matthew Strauss, a currency
strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. ``That means the market
has gotten a little bit ahead of itself pricing in rate increases, and
the dollar will come under pressure.''
|
| 25.06 17:06 |
Stocks jump ahead of Fed
Wall Street is upbeat as investors gear up for interest-rate decision from the central bank. Stocks spiked Wednesday morning, led by financials and technology, as investors welcomed a big drop in oil prices and geared up for the latest interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones industrial average, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite all gained in the early going. Stocks slipped Tuesday after reports showing further erosion in consumer confidence and home prices rattled investors. But Wall Street found some momentum Wednesday morning as investors looked to the conclusion of the central bank's two-day policy meeting. In the news: Central bankers are expected to keep the fed funds rate, a key overnight bank lending rate, unchanged at 2%, with a decision expected at around 18:15 GMT. The Fed has cut the fed funds rate seven times in a row since September, including an emergency cut in January, at the height of the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis. The central bank is expected to address the challenging economic environment of slower growth and rising inflationary pressures in its closely watched statement. The government reported that May durable goods orders were basically flat in May, after falling 1% in April. The reading on big-ticket items meant to last three years or more was in line with analysts' expectations. A report is due shortly on new home sales in May. Among early movers, Boeing slipped 3.5% after the Dow component was downgraded to "sell" from "neutral" by Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, American Express, also a Dow component, said that MasterCard will pay it as much as $1.8 billion to settle an antitrust suit. The financial services company also cautioned that consumer credit is deteriorating faster than it expected this month, which could result in bigger credit losses.
|
| 25.06 16:09 |
Dow +51.05 at 11856.88, Nasdaq +30.11 at 2397.45, S&P +11.08 at 1325.37
Crude inventories for the week ended June 21 unexpectedly rose 803,000 barrels, compared to the expected decline of 1.1 million. Just prior to the release, Crude was trading down 1.0% to $135.69 per barrel. Stocks bounce to session highs on the crude data. The Dow is up 0.4%, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.8%. Boeing (-4.17) is the largest drag on the Dow, falling more than 5%. According to reports, Boeing was added to the Conviction Sell List at Goldman Sachs, citing the weak economy and record fuel prices. American Express is also in the news, after announcing it will receive $1.8 billion from MasterCard after settling an antitrust lawsuit. American Express claimed that MasterCard had illegally blocked AXP from the U.S. bank-issued card business. American Express had previously settled its lawsuit with Visa for $2.25 billion.
|
| 25.06 15:36 |
USA: Crude Inventories, 06/21 +800K |
| 25.06 15:29 |
Dow +45.27 at 11851.80, Nasdaq +24.37 at 2392.65, S&P +10.38 at 1324.59
The major indices extend their opening gains and get an additional boost on the release of a better-than-expected housing report. Just hitting the wires, the Department of Commerce said May new home sales fell 2.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, which follows the upwardly revised 4.8% gain in April. The results are slightly better than the median estimate that called for a drop of 2.7%. The current level of new home sales, at 512,000, is down 40% from the previous year. The financial sector is up 2.1%. European banks Barclays (+1.47) and UBS (+0.74) are posting hefty increases. Barclays is raising nearly $9 billion in fresh capital according to reports, and UBS hired Lazard to perform a strategic review its businesses.
|
| 25.06 15:02 |
USA: New home sales (May) 512K |
| 25.06 14:45 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut:
USD/JPY Y108.00, Y107.85 EUR/JPY Y167.00 USD/CHF Chf1.0270 NZD/USD $0.7625 USD/CAD C$1.0100
|
| 25.06 14:23 |
Before the bell: Wall Street set to open higher
Futures get a slight boost from the May durable goods report (S&P
futures +6.6, Nasdaq futures +10.5). Just reported, durable good orders
in May were unchanged, matching estimates, which follows the 1.0% drop
in April. Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.9%, slighty better
than the expected 1.0% drop. Agriculture company Monsanto (MON)
reported earnings of $1.45 per share, which is $0.11 better than
expectations. The company also raised its fiscal year 2008 guidance.
MasterCard (MA) will take a second quarter after-tax charge of roughly
$1 billion after settling its litigation with American Express (AXP).
Crude oil is trading down 0.2% to $136.74 ahead of the government's weekly energy inventory report at 10:35 ET.
|
| 25.06 13:39 |
USA: Durable goods orders excluding transportation (May) -0.9% |
| 25.06 13:38 |
USA: Durable goods orders excluding defence (May) -0.6% |
| 25.06 13:38 |
USA: Durable goods orders (May) 0.0% |
| 25.06 13:06 |
European session: dollar stable ahead of US data
The
dollar was little changed against the euro before the Federal Reserve
ends a two-day meeting at which policy makers will probably keep
borrowing costs unchanged, ending a cycle of seven interest-rate
reductions.
``The market has moved a long way in pricing Fed tightening and that
may be more than what Bernanke wanted,'' said Adam Myers, director of
market strategy in London at Credit Suisse Group, one of the world's 10
biggest currency traders. ``That would put the dollar under pressure.''
There's a ``risk'' the U.S. currency may fall to $1.60 per euro in the
next three months because ``the market consensus has become too much
expecting of a Fed rate increase,'' Myers said.
The dollar may weaken before a Commerce Department report today that
will show new-home sales fell to an annual pace of 512,000 in May,
close to a 17-year low.
EUR/USD: having got supprotat $1.5535 gained to $1.5600 before nested itself within the $1.5570/00 range. Offers $1.5620, $1.5650, bids $1.5540/35.
GBP/USD: after CBI data cable reached $1.9745. Bids $1.9695/90, $1.9660/50. Offers $1.9750/60, $1.9770/75
USD/JPY:
remained within Y107.80-Y108.05 range. Offers Y108.05, Y108.20, Y108.50/60, bids Y107.70/60.
It is the second day of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the focus will be on the statement accompanying in interest rate decision, around 1815GMT this evening.
The Fed statement ``will probably not signal more emphasis on inflation
than growth risk, and such should be a disappointment to the market,''
Ashley Davies, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG, the
world's second-biggest currency trader, wrote in a report today. ``Our
short-term bias is still for further dollar weakness.''
US data starts at 1230GMT, when durable goods
new orders are expected to decline 0.5% in May. At 1300GMT, the Energy
Information Administration is due to release its 2008 international
energy outlook, while at 1400GMT US new home sales
data are forecast to fall to a 510,000 annual rate in May after rising
to 526,000 in April. The weekly crude oil stocks data is also dueat 1435GMT.
|
| 25.06 12:39 |
CIBC on Fed policy
"Last week saw the market scale back its expectations of a 25-bp rate
hike at the Fed's August meeting on the prompting of unnamed senior Fed
officials. We believe that this is prudent considering the substantial
economic problems that Chairman Bernanke must still manage. However,
the Fed will continue to talk tough on inflation, and be ready to act
even as the US economy remains sluggish heading into 2009."
|
| 25.06 12:10 |
BOE GIEVE: Worst not over for the UK economy
- Expects economic downturn for the rest of this year
|
| 25.06 11:52 |
European focus: dollar falls ahead of US data
The
dollar was little changed against the euro before the Federal Reserve
ends a two-day meeting at which policy makers will probably keep
borrowing costs unchanged, ending a cycle of seven interest-rate
reductions.
``The market has moved a long way in pricing Fed tightening and that
may be more than what Bernanke wanted,'' said Adam Myers, director of
market strategy in London at Credit Suisse Group, one of the world's 10
biggest currency traders. ``That would put the dollar under pressure.''
There's a ``risk'' the U.S. currency may fall to $1.60 per euro in the
next three months because ``the market consensus has become too much
expecting of a Fed rate increase,'' Myers said.
The Fed statement ``will probably not signal more emphasis on inflation
than growth risk, and such should be a disappointment to the market,''
Ashley Davies, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG, the
world's second-biggest currency trader, wrote in a report today. ``Our
short-term bias is still for further dollar weakness.''
The dollar may weaken before a Commerce Department report today that
will show new-home sales fell to an annual pace of 512,000 in May,
close to a 17-year low.
|
| 25.06 11:29 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y108.60
Resistance 2: Y108.20
Resistance 1: Y108.00
Current price: Y107.90
Support 1: Y107.20 Support 2: Y106.50
Support 3: Y106.20
Comments: Above Y108.00, further
resistance comes at yesterday's peak of Y108.20. Rise above may extend Y108.50/60. Below Y107.20, support is around
Y106.50. Below correction may reach Y106.20.
|
| 25.06 11:09 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0540
Resistance 2: Chf1.0500
Resistance 1: Chf1.0470
Current price: Chf1.0409
Support 1: Chf1.0320
Support 2: Chf1.0300
Support 3: Chf0.0260
Comments: Pair failed to break above the resistance at yesterday's session high on Chf1.0470,
break above will open a way to Chf1.0500. Further level comes on Chf1.0540. The
nearest support at today's lows, then is June 12 low at Chf1.0300, than
comes Chf1.0260.
|
| 25.06 11:00 |
UK CBI Dist Trades: June Sales Vol Balance -9% Vs -14% May |
| 25.06 10:56 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.9850
Resistance 2: $1.9800
Resistance 1: $1.9750
Current price: $1.9716
Support 1: $1.9620
Support 2: $1.9580
Support 3: $1.9480
Comments:
Minor resistance spotted at $1.9740/50, then – near Jun 09
on $1.9800, with a break above this level there is a room for testing $1.9850. The nearest support is $1.9620 (yesterday's low) with
a break under will open the way to Monday low at $1.9580 and then – to $1.9480.
|
| 25.06 10:54 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.5820
Resistance 2: $1.5660
Resistance 1: $1.5580
Current price: $1.5571
Support 1: $1.5460
Support 2: $1.5340
Support 3: $1.5300
Comments: The nearest resistance
comes at $1.5580,
then – at $1.5630/60. Stronger level is around $1.5820. The closest support at $1.5460. The stronger one comes at on $1.5340 with a break under will open the
way to $1.5300 (Friday’s low).
|
| 25.06 10:49 |
ECB TRICHET: We are in heightened alertness
- Our very strong determination to anchor expectations
|
| 25.06 10:47 |
ECB TRICHET: I didn't say we would envisage series of hikes |
| 25.06 10:33 |
ECB TRICHET: I wouldn't say we are optimistic about 2009 growth
- We consider that risks to growth are on downside
|
| 25.06 10:05 |
Asian session: dollar is unchanged ahead of FOMC
The
dollar was little changed against the euro and yen before the Federal
Reserve ends a two-day meeting at which policy makers are forecast to
end a run of seven interest-rate cuts. ``The market has priced in a bit too much risk of U.S. rate hikes over the next few meetings,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays
Capital Inc., the U.K.'s third-biggest bank. ``Should the Fed statement
be interpreted as considering more downside risks to that growth
outlook, this might be a negative surprise for the dollar.''
EUR/USD: Opened
around $1.5580 before fell back to $1.5540. Later the pare reboundeв to the session high of $1.5580.
GBP/USD: traded within $1.9660 -$1.9710 range.
USD/JPY:
traded within Y107.70-Y108.05 range. Offers Y108.40/60, bids
Y107.10/00
European data for Weds starts at 0830GMT. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is due to testify before the
European Parliament, in Brussels. At 0900GMT, Eurozone industrial new orders are expected to come in at -0.1% m/m in April, rising 2.0% y/y, while UK data sees the June CBI distributive trades survey at 1000GMT.
|
| 25.06 10:00 |
E15: Industrial orders rose unexpectedly in April by 2.5% m/m 11.7% y/y |
| 25.06 09:43 |
ECB TRICHET: Strengthening of upside risks to price stability in medium term
- Risk of inflation wage-price spiral particularly acute
- Price risises in some parts of services sector may be higher
- Imperative all parties help avoid broad based second round effects
- Must keep longer term inflation expectations anchored
- Domestic demand expected to support ongoing growth.
|
| 25.06 09:36 |
ECB board member TUMPELL-GUGERELL:
-- Prepared to hike rates if needed, in state of high alertness. -- See temporary slowing in Eurozone growth, but no collapse.
|
| 25.06 09:24 |
USD/JPY retains positive mood
The pair trades around the day's highs just
shy of Y108.00. Offers spotted at Y108.20 and Y108.50/60. Bids back at Y107.70/60 with stops
through Y107.35 and better demand on approach to Y107.00.
|
| 25.06 09:02 |
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Wednesday's session lower
Nikkei ended
the session lower by just 19.64 points, or 0.14%, lower at 13829.92.
The broader-based TOPIX was lower by 3.11 points at 1346.08.
|
| 25.06 08:50 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut:
USD/JPY Y108.00, Y107.85
EUR/JPY Y167.00
USD/CHF Chf1.0270
NZD/USD $0.7625
USD/CAD C$1.0100
|
| 25.06 08:01 |
Globex traded US index futures are edging higher in early European trade Wednesday.
The S&P Sep contract was last
higher by 2.30 points at 1317.80, with the Nasdaq Sep contract gaining
5.50 points to stand at 1917.00.
|
| 25.06 07:48 |
Dollar gains on profit fixing
The greenback gains a little ahead of the FOMC rate
decision due later in the day. The pair targets offers seen at
Y108.00, with stops and supply building on approach to Y108.20. Bids
remain at Y107.60, stronger at Y107.40.
|
| 25.06 07:24 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y108.60
Resistance 2: Y108.20
Resistance 1: Y108.00
Current price: Y107.90
Support 1: Y107.20 Support 2: Y106.50
Support 3: Y106.20
Comments: Above Y108.00, further
resistance comes at yesterday's peak of Y108.20. Rise above may extend Y108.50/60. Below Y107.20, support is around
Y106.50. Below correction may reach Y106.20.
|
| 25.06 07:14 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0540
Resistance 2: Chf1.0500
Resistance 1: Chf1.0470
Current price: Chf1.0424
Support 1: Chf1.0320
Support 2: Chf1.0300
Support 3: Chf0.0260
Comments: Pair failed to break above the resistance at yesterday's session high on Chf1.0470,
break above will open a way to Chf1.0500. Further level comes on Chf1.0540. The
nearest support at today's lows, then is June 12 low at Chf1.0300, than
comes Chf1.0260.
|
| 25.06 07:13 |
Major European bourses are initially seen trading mixed Wednesday morning
FTSE -9, the CAC +14, the DAX +4 and the Eurostoxx 50 +2.
|
| 25.06 06:51 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.9850
Resistance 2: $1.9800
Resistance 1: $1.9750
Current price: $1.9696
Support 1: $1.9620
Support 2: $1.9580
Support 3: $1.9480
Comments:
Minor resistance spotted at $1.9740/50, then – near Jun 09
on $1.9800, with a break above this level there is a room for testing $1.9850. The nearest support is $1.9620 (yesterday's low) with
a break under will open the way to Monday low at $1.9580 and then – to $1.9480.
|
| 25.06 06:47 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.5820
Resistance 2: $1.5660
Resistance 1: $1.5580
Current price: $1.5571
Support 1: $1.5460
Support 2: $1.5340
Support 3: $1.5300
Comments: Euro failed to break the closest support at $1.5460. The stronger one comes at on $1.5340 with a break under will open the
way to $1.5300 (Friday’s low).
The nearest resistance
comes at $1.5580,
then – at $1.5630/60. Stronger level is around $1.5820.
|
| 25.06 06:35 |
Crude futures are trading modestly lower. as the market awaits both the Fed's rate call and the weekly stockpiles data.
The front-month Nymex WTI Aug '0 contract was
last at $136.81, down 19 cents, having traded in a narrow
$136.71/$137.11 range.
|
| 25.06 06:17 |
Daily History for June 24, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.5620 1.5490 1.5568
USD/JPY 108.19 107.35 107.81
GBP/USD 1.9722 1.9625 1.9702
USD/CHF 1.0468 1.0348 1.0410
EUR/JPY 168.34 167.28 167.86
EUR/GBP 0.7926 0.7890 0.7896
GBP/JPY 212.85 211.65 212.50
GBP/CHF 2.0560 2.0404 2.0520
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 -7.91 -0.06% 13,849.56
Topix +1.26 +0.1% 1,349.19
DAX 30 -53.40 -0.81% 6,536.06
САС 40 -37.61 -0.83% 4,473.76
FTSE 100 -32.50 -0.57% 5,634.70
Dow -34.93 -0.29% 11,807.43
Nasdaq -17.46 -0.73% 2,368.28
S&P -3.71 -0.28% 1,314.29
10yr Note -0.6300 -0.151% 4.105%
OIL NYMEX +0.26 +0.19% 137.00
Gold +4.40 +0.50% 891.60
|
| 25.06 06:03 |
Schedule for today, Wednesday, June 25, 2008
08:00 Italy Retail sales (April) - -0.5% 08:00 Italy Retail sales (April) Y/Y unadjusted - -1.0% 09:00 EU(15) Industrial orders (April) - -1.0% 09:00 EU(15) Industrial orders (April) Y/Y - -2.5% 10:00 UK CBI retail sales volume balance (June) -16% -14% 12:30 USA Durable goods orders (May) 0.1% -0.6 (-0.5)% 12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding transportation (May) - 2.5% 12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding defence (May) - -0.3% 14:00 USA New home sales (May) 515K 526K 18:15 USA FOMC meeting announcement 2.00% 2.00%
|