Stiri financiare

US markets return Tuesday with the 1300GMT release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, followed at 1400GMT by the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Consumer Confidence data. Consumer confidence is expected to rise to a reading of 43.0 in April, a third straight increase. US data continues at 1430GMT with the Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey. Late US data sees the weekly ABC News Survey.

Tuesday sees European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia meet the European Executive Directors of the IMF, although scheduled events start at 0600GMT, with German Q1 detailed GDP data and import prices. This is shortly followed, at 0610GMT, by the June GfK consumer sentiment data, also from Germany. France also releases consumer spending data at 0645GMT. At 0800GMT, Norges Governor Svein Gjedrem is due to present the Financial Stability report, in Oslo, while EMU current account data is due at the same time. Further EMU data sees the 0900GMT release of industrial new orders data. At 0915GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny holds a press conference on the occasion of the General Assembly of the Austrian National Bank, in Vienna. Later European data also sees the Belgian National Bank business survey, due at 1300GMT.

Trades around $1.4000. Stops noted through $1.3970 ahead of next band of resistance between $1.3950/40. Resistance $1.4030, $1.4050 with stops reported through $1.4050/60.

Last week, S&P 500 index bottomed at 878.96 (saw a low of 879.59 Thursday also), before pressing to a high of 924.23 on Wednesday of this week. A break below 875.00, former resistance/now key support, would be viewed negatively, with steeper losses likely, traders say. Conversely, if it appears that stocks have bottomed yet again ahead of that key support zone, the case for a clear rejection of the downside can also be made, which may allow for a new leg higher in the index, they say.

"We reiterate our 1100 S&P 500 2009 yearend target,"says UBS Equity Strategist, David Bianco.

Recovery off earlier lows around $1.5837 extends to challenge reported offers placed around $1.5900, sterling picking up a bid tone as euro-sterling holds outside of its overnight/early Europe range of stg0.8800/20, currently around stg0.8795. A break and clear above the figure to open a move on toward $1.5930 ahead of stronger area toward
$1.5950.

Monday U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day holiday.

CAC -13.00 (-0.40%) at 3,214.97, Dax -37.18 (-0.76%) at 4,881.57

Crude oil: WTI NYMEX $61.34 (-$0.33)

- Fed Should Augment Operator Role In Retail Payments
- Card Payment Systems' Competitiveness A Concern

Data:
08:00 Germany IFO business climate index (May) 84.2

The yen fell from the near highest level in more than two months against the dollar after North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in three years and may have also launched a short-range missile, posing a threat to the region’s security.

The euro slipped versus the dollar and pared its gain against the pound after a report showed German business confidence in May rose less than economists forecast. New Zealand’s dollar declined versus the greenback on concern export revenue will drop after the U.S. increased subsidies for its dairy products.

“The missile test may have been conducted to escalate geopolitical risk,” said Akifumi Uchida, Tokyo-based deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., Japan’s fifth-largest lender. “Japan also is geographically close to North Korea so this doesn’t augur well. The yen is being sold.”

North Korea said its underground nuclear test was part of measures to “bolster up its nuclear deterrent for self defense,” according to a statement from the official Korean Central News Agency.

President Barack Obama said North Korea’s claim it conducted a nuclear test is of “grave concern,” according to an e-mailed statement from the White House.

The euro fell from near its highest level this year against the dollar after the Ifo institute said its German business climate index rose to 84.2, from 83.7 in April. Economists expected a gain to 85. The index reached a 26-year low of 82.2 in March.

EUR/USD the pair remained within the limits of $1,3950-$ 1,4040

GBP/USD movement of a rate has been limited by frameworks $1,5830-$ 1,5840

USD/JPY the pair remained in the field of reached high Y95,20

There is no major economic data for today as UK and US financial markets are closed for Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day respectively.

EUR/USD: $1.4000
USD/JPY: Y95.00
AUS/USD: $0.7855

"We continue to expect that the Fed will take no actions to begin draining liquidity from the financial system until the second half of 2010 at the earliest. The Fed will want to make sure that the recovery that we expect to commence in the fourth quarter of this year will be sustained. It is unlikely to feel confident of this until early in the second half of 2010.

CAC -10.59 (-0.33%) at 3,217.38, Dax -31.97 (-0.65%) at 4,886.78

USD/JPY
Offers Y96.20/25, Y95.80/00, Y95.50, Y95.20/25
Bids Y94.00, Y93.85, Y93.60/50

EUR/USD
Offers $1.4050/60, $1.4030, $1.4000/10
Bids $1.3950/40, $1.3920, $1.3900/890

Resistance 3:Y96.70
Resistance 2: Y96.00
Resistance 1: Y95.20
Current price: Y95.02
Support 1: Y94.40
Support 2: Y93.80
Support 3: Y92.60
COMMENTS: The yen remains under pressure. Resistance is marked in the field of session high Y95.20 (level of 23,6 % FIBO of Y99,55-Y93,80 falling and area of May 13-14 low). Overcoming of the given level will open road to Y96.00 (38,2%). Further is not excluded growth to Y96.70 (peak on May 13 and 19, 50,0%). Support is marked in area of session low (Y94.40). Stronger levels remain Y93.80 (Friday's low) and Y92.60 (area of Feb 9 high and 20 low).

Resistance 3:Chf1.1120
Resistance 2:Chf1.1050
Resistance 1:Chf1.0930
Current price: Chf 1.0861
Support 1:Chf1.0770
Support 2:Chf1.0700
Support 3: Chf1.0640
СOMMENTS: Dollar holds within the narrow range with resistance comes at channel line from May 18 on Chf1.0930. Above the target is on May 21 high at Chf1.1050. Stronger level is near channel line from Apr 22 on Chf1.1120. Strong support comes at Chf1.0770 (channel line from Mar 17). Below losses may extend to Chf1.0700 and Chf1.0640.

Resistance 3:$1.6100
Resistance 2:$1.6020
Resistance 1:$1.5940
Current price: $1.5881
Support 1: $1.5830
Support 2: $1.5750
Support 3: $1.5630
COMMENTS: Cable tested Friday’s highs and retreated. Above $1.5940 (session high and Friday’s high) the target comes at $1.6020 (38.2% of $2.0150 - $1.3481 decline). Further resistance is near channel line from May 18 at $1.6100/10. Support is at session low on $1.5830. Stronger level is around $1.5750 (23.6% of $1.5130 - $1.5940 move). Below losses may extend to $1.5630 (38.2%).

On Monday Germany’s Ifo index was released with UK and US markets are closed in observance of national holidays.
Tuesday brings Germany’s 1Q GDP estimate at 06:00 GMT. At 08:00 GMT EU Current account balance is due to comes. US data start to come at 14:00 GMT with Consumer Confidence comes the first.
On Wednesday, Germany’s CPI report is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT. US data will be in focus with the data, including home resale at 14:00 GMT.
Germany’s labor market data come on Thursday. UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey is due to come at 10:00 GMT. US Durable Goods orders report will come at 12:30 GMT.
Friday will interesting by its UK Nationwide house price index. At 12:30 GMT revised US 1Q GDP estimates come. Later, at 13:45GMT investors will watch Chicago PIM and at 14:00 GMT dollar may react on Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

Resistance 3: $1.4360
Resistance 2: $1.4140
Resistance 1: $1.4040
Current price: $1.3971
Support 1: $1.3940
Support 2: $1.3820
Support 3: $1.3770
COMMENTS: Euro holds steady. Support is near 5-days channel line at $1.3940, below – on $1.3820. Strong resistance comes at $1.3770 (23.6% Fibo of $1.2880 - $1.4050 move). Key resistance is around Friday’s highs on $1.4040 with a break above will target $1.4140 and then - $1.4360 (Dec 29’2008 high).

There are plenty of speakers still due today, starting at 0900GMT, when ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber is due to speak on "The end of the financial crisis, economic turnaround," in Helsinki.
At 1230GMT, US Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is due to speak at a conference on retail payments, in Frankfurt, while at 1300GMT, Riksbank First Deputy Governor Svante Oeberg will give the speech "Monetary policy and the elusive resource utilization", in Stockholm.

While euro-sterling remains within the overnight stg0.8800/20 range, seen enabling cable to take direction from euro-dollar plays. GBP/USD trades back around $1.5865, after touching a low of $1.5837. Support now seen to $1.5835, stronger on approach to $1.5820. Resistance seen between $1.5880/85 ahead of $1.5895/00.

EUR/USD extends recovery from lows of $1.3958, seen after stops were triggered through $1.3970. Rate currently trades back around $1.3978. Bids now seen placed from around $1.3960, with interest extending toward $1.3945, stops under $1.3940. Resistance seen toward $1.4000, with sell interest noted extending toward $1.4010. Above here and rate can edge back toward
$1.4030.

The yen weakened against the euro and the dollar after Yonhap News said North Korea launched a short- range missile, posing a threat to the region’s security. South Korea’s won ended two days of gains versus the dollar and Asian stocks declined after this report.
The yen declined to an eight-month low against the dollar on Oct. 9, 2006, when the North Korea government said it had detonated its first nuclear bomb. A nuclear test is a threat to Japan, as Tokyo is 809 miles (1,295 kilometers) from North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang.

EUR/USD printed highs on $1.4020 before slowly eased down to $1.3960.

GBP/USD fell from $1.5922 to $1.5830 before rose back to $1.5840.

USD/JPY rose from Y94.40 to Y95.20 before it settled back at Y95.00.

There is no major economic data for today as UK and US financial markets are closed for Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day respectively.
Euro knocked down as Ifo headline data came in below expectations (Ifo business sentiment 84.2 vs forecast 85.0).

EUR/USD: $1.4000
USD/JPY: Y95.00
AUS/USD: $0.7855

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4030, $1.4050, $1.4100
Bids: $1.3985/75

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6000
Bids: $1.5855/50, $1.5750/60

USD/JPY
Offers: Y95.30, Y95.50, Y95.80/00
Bids: Y94.50/00

EUR/JPY
Offers: Y133.50/60, Y133.80/00
Bids: Y132.80/60, Y132.10/00.

U.S. stocks rose for the first time in four days as unexpected profit at Sears Holdings Corp. overshadowed concern the government faces higher interest rates to finance the bailout of the financial industry, which sent Treasuries lower and weakened the dollar.
Sears jumped 15%. Autodesk Inc. surged 11% after the biggest maker of engineering-design software forecast profit that topped analysts’ estimates. Bank of America Corp. lost 4.9% as the U.S. government prepared to raise $162 billion next week by selling securities. Stocks extended gains after White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said he doesn’t expect U.S.’s AAA credit rating will be cut.

Stocks fell for the third straight session after S&P signaled Britain may lose its top credit rating and Bill Gross warned the U.S. may eventually surrender its AAA ranking. A lower credit rating would lift borrowing costs for the U.S. government, spur inflation and make it harder to curtail the banking crisis that has spurred more than $1 trillion in losses.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner committed to cutting the budget deficit as concern about deteriorating U.S. creditworthiness deepened, and ascribed the sell-off in Treasuries to prospects for an economic recovery.

The S&P 500 has surged 32% since March 9 on speculation the global recession is easing and as earnings at companies from Ford Motor Co. to Europe’s Credit Suisse Group AG topped analysts’ estimates. The Conference Board’s measure of leading economic indicators, including stock prices and manufacturing, increased in April for the first time since June.
Autodesk rose 11%. The company announced job cuts and forecast profit excluding some items of at least 15 cents a share in the second quarter. Analysts on average expected the company to earn 14 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Archer Daniels Midland Co., the second-largest U.S. ethanol producer, jumped 6.9%. The stock was raised to “hold” from “sell” at Citigroup Inc., which said a drought in Argentina will benefit American grain processors. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. surged 4.3%. The world’s largest maker of its namesake crop nutrient and Mosaic Co., North America’s second-largest fertilizer maker, were raised to “buy” from “hold” at Citigroup Inc., which cited the outlook for grain prices. Citigroup also upgraded Agrium Inc., North America’s third- largest fertilizer producer, to “hold” from “sell.”
Mosaic added 4.2%. Agrium gained 3.8%.

Bank of America dropped 4.9%, the second- steepest decline in the Dow average. American Express Co., the third-largest credit-card network, dropped 2%.
MasterCard Inc. fell 1.4%. The world’s second-largest electronic payments network will lose more than half of a $59 billion portfolio of debit-card users after JPMorgan Chase & Co. decided to shift more business to Visa Inc., two people familiar with the matter said. Salesforce.com Inc. lost 8.2%. The biggest seller of Internet-based customer management software forecast full-year revenue of $1.27 billion at most. That trailed the average analyst estimate of $1.32 billon. Citigroup cut Salesforce to “hold.”

The dollar declined beyond $1.40 against the euro for the first time since January on concern U.S. creditworthiness deteriorated and near-zero borrowing costs made the nation’s assets less attractive to investors.
The yen touched a nine-week high versus the dollar after Japan’s Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said the government won’t intervene in the currency market and the Bank of Japan raised its economic assessment. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop versus the euro since March after Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said yesterday the U.S. will “eventually” lose its AAA credit rating.

The U.S. currency slumped 3.6 percent versus the euro this week, heading for the biggest loss since the five days ended March 20, when it tumbled 4.8 percent. The dollar lost 0.7 percent versus the yen this week as the euro gained 3.2 percent.
“The markets are beginning to anticipate the possibility” of a U.S. credit rating cut, said Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “It’s certainly nothing that’s going to happen overnight.”
The administration of President Barack Obama will sell a record $3.25 trillion of debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg TV that he’s committed to minimizing the federal budget deficit, targeting a reduction to 3 percent of gross domestic product or smaller, compared with a projected 12.9 percent this year.
“The urgency for money managers with large U.S. dollar holdings to diversify could well intensify,” analysts led by Callum Henderson, global head of currency strategy in Singapore at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote in a research note today. “The first considerations will likely be hard currencies that are liquid. On these counts, the likes of the euro, yen, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar will win out.” Some Fed policy makers indicated at the April 28-29 policy meeting that the central bank might have to increase its purchase of assets should the economy or financial markets deteriorate further, minutes released this week showed.
Although the pound retreated briefly from its Asian high at 1.5898 to 1.5757 against the dollar in European afternoon due to rumours that U.K. GDP data could be worse than market expectation, the data came in line with forecast of –1.9% Q/Q and –4.1% Y/Y. Cable then found renewed buying from there on dollar's weakness elsewhere and rallied to a new 2009 high of 1.5947 on Friday.

The yen strengthened against the dollar as the Bank of Japan kept its target lending rate at 0.1 percent at the end of its policy meeting today and raised its economic assessment for the first time since July 2006. The central bank also said it will accept foreign debt owned by banks as collateral for loans.

Japan’s currency headed for a thirdly weekly gain versus the greenback after Finance Minister Yosano said the “government isn’t considering currency intervention at this point.” Waning global sales and a 10 percent gain in the yen versus the dollar in the past year hurt exporters including Toyota Motor Corp.

- Outlook For Final Domestic Demand Not Optimistic
- Stk Hldg Risk Remains Biggest Issue For Japan Bks
- Need To Reduce Stock Holding Risks
- Heard N Korea Impact On Mkt Limited

Oil prices fell towards $61 a barrel on Monday, shedding some of the previous session's gains, on growing risk aversion after North Korea said it had successfully conducted a nuclear test. Still, prices hovered around a six-month high, as a weak U.S. dollar and expectations the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would keep its official production targets unchanged during its meeting on Thursday limited oil's losses.
U.S. crude futures for July delivery fell 32 cents to $61.35 a barrel by 03:12 GMT . The contract settled up 62 cents at $61.67 a barrel on Friday, boosted by data showing a big increase in Chinese demand, along with a weak dollar. London Brent crude fell 23 cents to $60.55.

The Nikkei is currently higher by 1.35% in afternoon trade.

Resistance 3:Y96.70
Resistance 2: Y96.20
Resistance 1: Y95.00
Current price: Y94.90
Support 1: Y93.80
Support 2: Y92.60
Support 3: Y91.80
COMMENTS: The dollar growth. Resistance comes near yesterday’s broken trend line from Jan 21 on Y95.00. Back above will point to further rise to Y96.20 (May 20 session high). Above the target comes at Y96.70 (May 13 and 19). Support is around friday's session lows on Y93.80. Stronger level comes at Y92.50/60 (23.6% Fibo of Y110.70 - Y87.00 decline). Below losses extend to Y91.80.

The Hang Seng Index opens down 0.37% at 16,999.05.

The Shanghai Composite Index opens down 1.63% at 2,555.34.

Resistance 3:Chf1.1050
Resistance 2:Chf1.0930
Resistance 1:Chf1.0860
Current price: Chf 1.0848
Support 1:Chf1.0760
Support 2:Chf1.0700
Support 3: Chf1.0540
СOMMENTS: Resistance comes at session high on Chf1.0860.Stronger level – atChf1.0930 (friday's high)/ Above the target comes at Chf1.1050 (high 21 may). Support is located at Chf1.0760 (trend support line from Mar 13’2008).The important level – is around Chf1.0700.Break under open the way to Chf1.0540 (0.886% fibo Chf1.0368-Chf1.1967).

Resistance 3:$1.6020
Resistance 2:$1.5960
Resistance 1:$1.5880
Current price: $1.5875
Support 1: $1.5750
Support 2: $1.5700
Support 3: $1.5510
COMMENTS: Cable in narrow range. Strong resistance comes at $1.5880 (channel top from Mar 19 and Apr 28 crossing). Break above will strengthen bullish momentum and bring the rate to $1.5960. Stronger resistance comes at $1.6020 (38.2% of $2.0150 - $1.3480 decline). Support comes at $1.5750 (friday's session low), stronger – on $1.5700 (50% of $1.5510 - $1.5880 rise). Key support is near on $1.5510 (lows 21 may).

Resistance 3: $1.4150
Resistance 2: $1.4050
Resistance 1: $1.4000
Current price: $1.3990
Support 1: $1.3950
Support 2: $1.3880
Support 3: $1.3820
COMMENTS: Support comes at $1.3950 (channel line from Apr 28),stronger – at $1.3880. Key support is $1.3820 (61.8% of $1.3730-$1.3950 rise).Nearest resistance comes at $1.4000 (МА10).Break above will target $1.4050 and $1.4150.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei -38.34 -0.41% 9,225.81

Topix -5.56 -0.63% 875.88.

FTSE +19.82 +0.46% 4,365.29
DAX +18.08 +0.37% 4,918.75
CAC +10.56 +0.33% 3,227.97
Dow +14.00 +0.17% 8,260.00
NASDAQ -6.75 -0.49% 1,360.75
S&P -3.80 -0.43% 884.90
10yr Note +0.9500 +0.283% 3.448%
NYMEX Crude Oil +0.62 +1.01% 61.67
Gold +7.70 +0.80% 958.90

High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.4050 1.3897 1.4000
GBP/USD 1.5944 1.5754 1.5906
USD/JPY 94.90 93.83 94.80
USD/CHF 1.5944 1.5754 1.5906

EUR/JPY 132.96 130.70 1432.73
EUR/GBP 0.8837 0.8761 0.8799
GBP/JPY 151.06 148.15 150.81
GBP/CHF 1.7350 1.7194 1.7251

USA Memorial Day
UK Spring Bank Holiday
02:00 Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report (May)
08:00 Germany IFO business climate index (May) 84.9 83.7
22:45 NZ Trade Balance (Apr) 251M 324M
23:50 Japan Corporate Service Price (YoY) (Apr) -2.3% -2.1%