| 21.08 20:00 |
Hot Stocks: Boeing Co., Fannie Mae
Boeing Co.. The round-the-clock talks with union machinists are aimed
at averting a strike like the one that shut down the company's jet
production lines for almost a month in 2005, The Wall Street Journal
reports.
Investors are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a federal bailout Fannie Mae
that could wipe out holders of common equity. This uncertainty makes getting new financing to buy mortgages difficult.
The world's fifth-largest copper producer Southern Copper Corp was
upgreaded to ``neutral'' from ``underperform'' by Merrill Lynch.
The maker of Calvin Klein and Izod clothing Phillips-Van Heusen
Corporation lowered its third-quarter profit estimate to $1.07 a share,
below analysts’ estimates.
|
| 21.08 19:20 |
USD/JPY:
Carves out a fresh low for the session around Y108.14 area as residual
stops sub Y108.20 get taken to the cleaners and as the dollar takes
another leg lower in a market where yen crosses have wreaked havoc on
the day. Dollar bids said layered ahead of Y108.00, techs remind that
Y108.03 is the 38.2% retracement of Y103.80/110.65
move. Stops reported in place sub Y107.90 with order books said to get a bit thin down there.
|
| 21.08 19:02 |
Dow -28.74 at 11388.69, Nasdaq -14.49 at 2374.59, S&P -1.21 at 1273.33 |
| 21.08 19:00 |
American focus: Dollar falls most versus euro in month on bank writedowns, oil [M]
  The
dollar fell the most against the euro in more than a month on
speculation further writedowns at financial firms and an increase in
crude oil prices will prolong the U.S. economic slowdown.
The yen rose against all of the other major currencies after the
Financial Times reported Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. failed to sell a
50 percent stake, prompting investors to reduce holdings of
higher-yielding assets funded in Japan. The dollar is headed for a 4.8
percent increase versus the euro in August, the biggest monthly gain
since May 2001.
The dollar has gained almost 8 percent versus the euro since touching
the all-time low of $1.6038 on July 15 and appreciated 0.4 percent
against the yen this month as reports showed the European and Japanese
economies shrank in the second quarter and crude oil fell almost 20
percent from a record of $147.27 a barrel reached July 11.
Crude oil increased 5.7 percent to $121.55 a barrel today on
speculation tension between the U.S. and Russia will disrupt supplies.
The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in
the past year, according to calculations based on their value changes.
A reading of 1 would mean they move in lockstep.
``Commodities are taking off,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of
foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton,
Connecticut. ``Rising commodities reinforced the momentum of dollar
selling.''
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 23 percent chance the
Federal Reserve will raise the 2 percent target rate for overnight
lending between banks by at least a quarter- percentage point by its
Dec. 16 meeting, down from 35 percent odds a week earlier. Policy
makers next meet Sept. 16.
``Rate expectations have consolidated some, and oil has rebounded,''
said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford,
Connecticut. ``There's not as much oxygen for the dollar as there once
was.'' He still favors the dollar on evidence growth in Europe is
slowing.
|
| 21.08 18:24 |
Goldman about Philly Fed
"Philly Fed at -12.7 continues to paint a more pessimistic picture of
manufacturing than some other indicators, such as the ISM. Meanwhile
the LEI nosedive should somewhat be discounted as initial jobless
claims and building permits -- both currently distorted -- drove it
down."
|
| 21.08 17:51 |
Dresdner Kleinwort about Leading Indicators
"The underlying behavior of this index is consistent with the notion that the US has been in a recession."
|
| 21.08 17:18 |
Wall Street cuts losses as bank shares recover from bigger declines. Oil prices spike and the dollar drops [M]
Stocks
trimmed losses Thursday morning as financial shares recovered slightly
from opening declines. However, any comeback was limited as oil prices
jumped nearly $4 a barrel and the dollar weakened.
Fannie and Freddie fears
remained in place Thursday, although both stocks managed to bounce
after the recent bloodletting. Fannie shares hit a 20-year low before
bouncing back and Freddie hovered near an all-time low before
rebounding.
Meanwhile, jobless claims fell for the second week in a row, the
Philadelphia Fed index showed continued weakness in manufacturing and
an index of leading economic indicators fell more than expected.
Concerns about Lehman's solvency were also in focus after a Citi
Investment Research analyst cut his third-quarter forecasts for the
bank, along with those of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The analyst
also forecast steep quarterly writedowns related to bad mortgage bets
for all three banks.
Lehmanshares dropped nearly 3%, while Morgan and Goldman shares were down just 1% in the early going.
Lehman's money problems led the firm to hold secret talks with South
Korean and Chinese investors to try and sell up to half of its shares,
the Financial Times reported, although no deal was reached. However,
the Chinese firm in question denied any knowledge of talks with the
company.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve
quizzed Credit Suisse last month about a rumor that it had pulled a
line of credit from Lehman. However, Credit Suisse reportedly said that
it had not done so and had no plans to.
U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose $3.91 to $119.47 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with investors seeing the
weaker U.S. dollar and the renewed worries about the economy as a
reason to get back into commodities.

Light Sweet Crude Oil, 15 Minute Intraday Chart
The
Philadelphia Fed index, a regional manufacturing survey, posted a
reading of -12.7 versus forecasts for a bigger drop. The prior month's
reading was -16.3. Any reading that is negative suggests weakness,
while a positive reading suggests growth.
The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) slumped 0.7% in July,
topping forecasts. June LEI was revised to neutral from an initial
decline of 0.1%.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell last
week by more than expected, the government reported. However, the
figure remained above the key 400,000 level for the fifth week in a
row.
In the bond market, Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the
benchmark 10-year note to 3.83% from 3.79% late Wednesday. Prices and
yields move in the opposite direction.
COMEX gold for October delivery rose $21.80 to $834.20 an ounce
|
| 21.08 17:04 |
Dow -58.22 at 11359.21, Nasdaq -20.69 at 2368.39, S&P -5.19 at 1269.35 |
| 21.08 16:22 |
BOA: LEI reflecting a soft current economy
"LEI continue to decline rather steadily as it has for the past year,
reflecting a soft current economy and a weak outlook indcating softer
GDP growth readings likely lie in store for 2H 2008 and early-2009."
|
| 21.08 16:09 |
HSBC about Philadelphia Fed index
Ian Morris of HSBC: "August Philly Fed at -12.7 washe best performance
in 7 months, but still in moderate contraction. A ray of hope is that 6
month expectations are high for both new orders (39.4) and shipments
(36.3)."
|
| 21.08 15:50 |
CRUDE OIL: WTI Nymex crude oil rises to $120.80 high, up $5.29 |
| 21.08 15:30 |
Dow -44.78 at 11372.65, Nasdaq -7.97 at 2381.11, S&P -3.96 at 1270.58 |
| 21.08 15:22 |
WTI Nymex crude oil hit 10-day highs
WTI Nymex crude oil
earlier hit 10-day highs at $119.94, amid fear that Russia may disrupt
oil flows after US plans for a missile shield in Poland and speculation
that OPEC will cut output. Traders also note that the weaker dollar has
contributed to rise in oil, gold and other commodities as an inflation
hedge, but currency traders cite strong commodities as causation for
dollar strength. Crude oil prices are now easing off highs following
release of weaker than expected US Philly Fed survey, with WTI Nymex
crude oil at $118.85, $3.32.
|
| 21.08 15:06 |
US: Philly Fed:
prices paid 57.5 in aug, vs 75.6
July; new orders -11.9 in Aug vs -12.1 in July; employment -1.1 in Aug
vs -7.3 in July.
|
| 21.08 15:01 |
US: Philly Fed -12.7 in Aug vs -16.3 in July |
| 21.08 14:55 |
Dow -78.81 at 11338.62, Nasdaq -15.44 at 2373.64, S&P -7.11 at 1267.43
Stocks opened sharply lower, but have pared some of their losses. Only
the energy sector (+1.6%) and defensive-oriented utilities (+0.2%) are
trading higher.
Oil prices are up sharply to their highest level in about two weeks. Oil is currently trading near $119 per barrel.
|
| 21.08 14:46 |
GBP/USD to test $1.8700
Slowly edging its way
back toward $1.8700. Rate earlier probed above the figure on two
occassions, both times meeting decent supply which repulsed. Offers
reported in place between $1.8700/10, a break above to open a move on
toward $1.8730 ahead of $1.8780/90.
|
| 21.08 14:28 |
Before the bell: Worries about mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pressure futures. Oil jumps above $118 a barrel.
Stock futures remain depressed.
S&P futures vs fair value: -10.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value:
-14.5. An analyst from Citigroup has
trimmed earnings per share estimates for Lehman Brothers (LEH), Goldman
Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS). The analysis contends the
institutions may incur further write downs, according to Reuters.
Additionally, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed contacted
Credit Suisse (CS) regarding a rumor that it pulled a credit line from
Lehman Brothers; Credit Suisse said there was no truth to the rumor and
it had no intention of pulling it.
 
Fannie shares sank almost
27% and Freddie shares tumbled 22% in Wednesday trading. More than 200
million shares of both Fannie and Freddie changed hands, four times
their average trading volume. So far this week, the stock for each of
the mortgage giants has plunged 44%.
Wall Street is concerned about Fannie and Freddie's need to raise
capital and the possibility of a government bailout. Estimates for the
cost of a bailout range from $25 billion to $100 billion.
Earlier this week, Freddie paid a steep borrowing premium when it issued $3 billion worth of five-year debt.
Oil: Higher crude prices could also pressure stocks. U.S. crude for
October delivery climbed to $118.00 a barrel in electronic delivery.
The September contract expired Wednesday.
Crude futures rose as traders continued to digest a U.S. inventory
report released Wednesday. The report showed a build up in crude
supplies but showed a bigger-than-expected decline in gas stockpiles.
|
| 21.08 14:06 |
EUR/USD keeps positive mood
Rebound off data inspired dip extends to $1.4840 area, setting a fresh high for the session with some extra fuel perhaps
provided by the extended gain in crude oil which is trading around $118.50 now. Dollar offers at $1.4835 absorbed on the move but further supply seen at $1.4850 and ahead of $1.4900.
|
| 21.08 13:47 |
European session: Dollar falls on U.S. manufacturing slump [M]
The
yen rose to the highest level in three months against the euro as
European and Asian stocks slid on concern that credit-market losses are
widening, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets funded by loans in
Japan. The yen advanced versus all 16 of the most-active
currencies after the Financial Times reported Lehman Brothers Holdings
Inc. failed to sell a 50 percent stake to investors. The dollar fell
against the euro before industry and government reports that may show
the U.S. economic outlook worsened in July for a third consecutive
month and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted.
EUR/USD printed high on $1.4830 before retreating to $1.4730. Later the rate returned to the session high. Bids $1.4735/30, stops below, bids $1.4710/00, offers $1.4835.
GBP/USD failed to break above $1.8700 and retreated to $1.8605. before stabelized at $1.8660.
USD/JPY fell from Y109.70 to Y108.40.
The Fed Bank of
Philadelphia's general economic index, due at 14:00 GMT, will be minus
12.6 in August, from minus 16.3 in July, according to a survey of
economists. Readings less than zero signal a decline in manufacturing
and that would be the longest contraction since 2001.
|
| 21.08 13:31 |
US: Initial claims -13k to 432k in the Aug 16 wk vs 435k expected and 372k in July 12 employment survey wk. |
| 21.08 12:59 |
USD/CAD renewed lows on profit take
Was on the rise into release of Canadian
CPI, extending the recovery off earlier lows of C$1.0555, touching a
high of C$1.0585 post release only to meet profit take supply. Rate
currently trades back around C$1.0555, with traders noting the jump
higher in the gold price.
|
| 21.08 12:28 |
WTI Nymex crude oil rose to 6-day high at $117.40 on fears that Russian oil supply may be disrupted due to rising tensions with the US. |
| 21.08 12:09 |
EUR/USD tech comments
Pullback, off earlier highs of $1.4832, extended to $1.4740, with rate currently trading back around $1.4785. Bids had been reported in place at $1.4735/30, with stronger interest noted close behind at $1.4720/10. More seen placed at $1.4700 with stops placed on a break below, which if triggered brings Wednesday's lows at $1.4672 back into view. Offers now reported at $1.4775/80, more between $1.4800/10.
|
| 21.08 11:43 |
European focus: yen gains on carry trades reduction
The yen rose to the highest level in three months against the euro as
European and Asian stocks slid on concern that credit-market losses are
widening, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets funded by loans in
Japan.
The yen advanced versus all 16 of the most-active currencies after the
Financial Times reported Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. failed to sell a
50 percent stake to investors. The dollar fell against the euro before
industry and government reports that may show the U.S. economic outlook
worsened in July for a third consecutive month and manufacturing in the
Philadelphia region contracted.
The Federal
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index will be minus
12.6 in August, from minus 16.3 in July, according to a Bloomberg News
survey of economists. Readings less than zero signal a decline in
manufacturing and that would be the longest contraction since 2001.
``The yen has risen as
concerns tick up about the health of financial companies worldwide and
the outlook for the global economy'' said Paul Robinson, a currency
strategist in London at Barclays Capital and a former Bank of England
economist. ``These concerns are likely to remain simering which is
going to keep the yen somewhat supported.''
The euro will rebound against the dollar as recent losses are
excessive, said Tohru Sasaki, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan
Chase & Co.
``The euro's decline against the dollar was a bit too fast,'' said
Tokyo-based Sasaki at the third-largest U.S. bank. ``Investors have
also piled up huge short-euro positions against the dollar. The markets
are likely to correct those excessive positions.'' A short position is
one that bets on a currency falling.
``The market has been showing a lot of complacency toward
dollar-negative news and is now beginning to take a more balanced view
of the risks,'' said Michael Klawitter, a currency strategist in
Frankfurt at Dresdner Kleinwort, the investment bank owned by Allianz
SE, Europe's biggest insurer. ``Ongoing concerns about the health of
some U.S. financial institutions are harming the dollar.''
The U.S. currency has gained almost 8 percent versus the euro since
touching an all-time low of $1.6038 on July 15 and appreciated 0.8
percent against the yen this month. The greenback has advanced as
reports showed the European and Japanese economies shrank in the second
quarter and crude oil fell around 20 percent from the record $147.27 a
barrel reached July 11.
``The dollar has been recently heavily overbought despite deteriorating
U.S. economic fundamentals,'' said Keiichi Iguchi, a currency dealer in
Tokyo at Resona Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's fourth-largest lender by
market value. ``Weaker economic data could spark sharp dollar-selling''
as traders unwind their positions, he said.
|
| 21.08 11:30 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y112.00 Resistance 2: Y110.70 Resistance 1: Y110.20 Current price: Y108.74 Support 1: Y108.40 Support 2: Y107.20 Support 3: Y106.60
Comments: Today the dollar fell against the yen on speculation credit- market losses will prompt the Federal Reserve to hold off from raising interest rates. Support at 6-days channel line on Y109.40 was broken and now rate targets Wednesday’s lows on Y108.35/40 and then – to Y107.20 (Aug 01 lows). Resistance comes on Y110.10 (the upper bound of the channel from Jul 15). Above there is a chance of testing Friday’s highs on Y110.70. Key resistance is around Y112.00/10 (channel line from Mar 2008).
|
| 21.08 11:14 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1180 Resistance 2: Chf1.1080 Resistance 1: Chf1.1030 Current price: Chf1.0970 Support 1: Chf1.0880 Support 2: Chf1.0600 Support 3: Chf1.0720
Comments: Dollar corrects down Thursday after yesterday’s rally. Philadelphia Fed index is schedule to release today at 14:00 GMT with analysts predict index rebounded to -12.6 in August after -16.3 month earlier. In general, techs picture hasn’t changed. Support is near Tuesday/Wednesday’s lows on Chf1.0880/90 with stronger – on Chf1.0800 (23.6% of Chf1.0030 - Chf1.1030 rise). Channel support line from Jul 16 also passes here. Resistance is near yesterday’s highs on Chf1.1040 with a break above will open the way to Chf1.1100. Next band of resistance is around Jan 07 high on Chf1.1180/90.
|
| 21.08 10:58 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8840 Resistance 2: $1.8780 Resistance 1: $1.8700 Current price: $1.8654 Support 1: $1.8620 Support 2: $1.8510 Support 3: $1.8300
Comments: GBP/USD following the euro in upward move after it held near multiyear’s lows Wednesday. Bearish tone of the Aug MPC’s minutes dragged the pound down yesterday as it said the inflation risks weakened recently. It cut market expectations as to the possible rate hike in the future. Rate breaks above the upper bound of the triangle pattern on hourly charts and getting close to $1.8700. Break above will target Aug 14 highs on $1.8780. Strong resistance may be mentioned around 23.6% Fibo on $1.8840 (of the $1.9930 - $1.8510 move). Support is around session low on $1.8600 with a break under will target the lower bound of the triangle at $1.8540. Stronger level is still near $1.8300 (38.2% of the rally from Jun 2001 lows at $1.3670 to Nov 2007 highs at $2.1160).
|
| 21.08 10:42 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4950
Resistance 2: $1.4880
Resistance 1: $1.4820
Current price: $1.4775
Support 1: $1.4680
Support 2: $1.4630
Support 3: $1.4460
Comments: EUR/USD rebounds Thursday after yesterday’s sell-off amid
German Minister of economy said the growth is “contained”. Last week’s
report showed EU economy contracted 0.5% on quarterly basis in the
second quarter, the first time for the last four years. Today’s
resistance is near Wednesday’s high on $1.4820. Above than level the
rise may extend to $1.4860/80 and $1.4950 (23.6% of $1.6030 - $1.4630
decline). Interim support comes near 2-days channel line on $1.4680
with stronger one – on Tuesday’s low at $1.4630. Key support comes at
channel line from Jul 15 on $1.4460.
|
| 21.08 10:06 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut,
EUR/USD: $1.4750 USD/JPY: Y110.00, Y110.40, Y109.75, Y109.35/30, Y109.00 GBP/USD: $1.8650, $1.8710 USD/CAD: C$1.0625
|
| 21.08 09:55 |
Orders:
EUR Bids: $1.4750, $1.4720 Offers: $1.4825/30, $1.4850
JPY Bids: Y108.60/40 Offers: Y109.50/60, Y109.80/85
GBP Bids: $1.8620/00
Offers: $1.8700, $1.8725/35, $1.8750
AUSSIE Bids: $1.8680/70
Offers: $0.8795/00
|
| 21.08 09:31 |
UK: Jul retail sales +0.8% m/m; +2.1% y/y |
| 21.08 09:21 |
Median estimate on UK July retail sales data: -0.3% m/m, +1.7% y/y vs -3.9% m/m, +2.2% y/y |
| 21.08 09:12 |
Asian session: Dollar falls on U.S. manufacturing slump [M]
The dollar fell the most in more than a month against the yen on speculation a manufacturing
industry contraction and credit-market losses will prompt the Federal Reserve
to hold off from raising interest rates. The U.S.
currency also slid against the euro. The yen climbed against the euro as faltering global growth and falling Asian
stocks prompted traders to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
EUR/USD printed
high on $1.4830 before retreating to $1.4788.
GBP/USD failed
to break above $1.8700 and retreated to $1.4789.
USD/JPY fell
from Y109.70 to Y108.60 before recovered a bit.
The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index, due at 14:0 GMT, will be minus 12.6 in August, from
minus 16.3 in
July, according to a survey of economists. Readings less than zero signal a decline in
manufacturing and that would be the longest contraction since 2001.
|
| 21.08 09:08 |
EUROZONE: Aug flash manufacturing PMI 47.5 |
| 21.08 09:06 |
Japan's stocks closed lower
Japan's
benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's session lower. The benchmark Nikkei
225 was 99.48 points, or 0.77%, to stand at 12752.21. The broader-based TOPIX
was lower by 8.84 points at 1224.53.
|
| 21.08 08:59 |
Stock market: Wednesday summary
Stock market fixing: Nikkei -13.36
-0.1% 12,851.69
Topix -2.17 -0.2% 1,233.37
FTSE +51.40 +0.97% 5,371.80
DAX +35.37 +0.56%
6,317.80
CAC +33.08 +0.76% 4,365.87
Dow +68.88 +0.61%
11,417.43
NASDAQ +4.72 +0.20%
2,389.08
S&P +7.85 +0.62%
1,274.54
10yr Note -0.4300 -0.112%
3.799%
NYMEX Crude Oil +0.45
+0.39% 114.98
Gold -0.50 -0.06% 816.30
Japan's stock on Wednesday falls, led by shipping lines. Japan's
Topix stock index fell as a drop in transportation fees dragged down shipping
lines, overshadowing a gain by oil explorers as crude rebounded. Nippon Yusen K.K. tumbled 2.7% and
led a gauge of shipping companies to its biggest drop in two weeks. Sony Corp.
slipped 2.8% after the fewest U.S.
home starts in 17 years sapped confidence in a recovery in the world's largest
economy. Inpex Holdings Inc., Japan's
biggest oil explorer, jumped to the highest in a month after crude rose a
second day. Nippon Yusen, Japan's biggest shipping company,
slid 2.7%, while closest rival Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. sank 2.5%. Kawasaki
Kisen Kaisha Ltd. tumbled 1.5%. Sony retreated 2.8%, while
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., the world's biggest maker of consumer
electronics, slumped 2.4%. Canon Inc., the largest digital-camera maker, dipped
2%. Inpex added 2.5%, the highest since
July 22. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. surged 4.3%, after gold climbed for a third
day.
European stocks rose for the first time in three days as mining shares near their
cheapest in seven months lured investors and Hewlett-Packard Co.'s earnings
spurred gains by chipmakers. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto
Group rose the most since Feb. 1. Infineon Technologies AG, Germany's
largest semiconductor maker, climbed after Hewlett- Packard reported profit
that topped analysts' estimates. Yara International ASA led chemical makers
higher on Israel Chemicals Ltd.'s more than fivefold surge in profit. BHP Billiton, which reported record
earnings this week, rallied 6.7%. Rio Tinto, the world's third- largest mining
company, gained 7.4%. Infineon climbed 1.8%. STMicroelectronics NV, Europe's biggest chipmaker, rose 2.4 percent to 8.301
euros. Yara, the world's largest fertilizer
maker, climbed 3.9%, while K+S AG, Europe's largest
producer of potash used in fertilizers, jumped 6.4%. Israel Chemicals, which harvests
minerals from the Dead Sea to make fertilizers
and chemicals, said second-quarter profit rose more than fivefold on soaring
potash prices.
Equities jumped as oil prices erase losses and turn lower. HP's earnings news overshadows
Fannie and Freddie fears. Stocks had fallen in the first hour
of trade as oil prices jumped and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac concerns
overshadowed HP's earnings. But the tone improved after the release
of the government's weekly oil inventories. That report showed a
stronger-than-expected jump in crude inventories, sending oil prices lower.
Hewlett-Packardreported higher quarterly sales and earnings
that topped forecasts late Tuesday. The company also forecast that fiscal
fourth-quarter earnings would top current expectations. Mortgage finance companies Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac slumped for a third straight session on worries that a
government takeover of the two companies is unavoidable. Additionally, Goldman Sachs cut
third-quarter and full-year earnings estimates on five brokerages, according to
published reports, saying that more writedowns are on the way.
|
| 21.08 08:29 |
FOREX. Wednesday summary
The euro fell to near the lowest
level against the dollar in six months as Germany's economic outlook
deteriorated and crude oil prices declined. The pound approached a two-year low
versus the dollar as minutes of the Bank of England's August meeting indicated British
inflation risks may have ``eased a little'' while the outlook for the economy
worsened. The dollar has risen 8 percent versus the euro from the record low
set in July. The British pound dropped on the
Bank of England's economic outlook. BOE policy makers split three ways
when they kept the target lending rate unchanged earlier this month, minutes of
the Aug. 7 meeting showed today. The dollar briefly erased its gain
versus the yen after the Wall Street Journal reported that executives of
mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac are scheduled to meet with U.S. Treasury
Department officials today. The euro fell as Germany's
Economy Ministry said in its monthly report that growth will remain moderate.
EUR/USD failed to break above $1.4800
and retreated to $1.4690. Later rate rebounded to $1.4760/65, but again
retreated to new session lows around $1.4670. Later rate recovered amid dollar’s
weakness to $1.4750. GBP/USD was dragged down from $1.8680
to $1.8635 before recovered to $1.8640. USD/JPY rose from Y109.60 to Y110.10
before set back at Y109.70.
UK retail sales report is due to come at
08:30 GMT, while Canada
is set to release its inflation data at 11:00 GMT. US Jobless Claims traditionally comes
at 12:30 GMT. ButmainfocuswillbeonPhillyFed’sindex. Analysts expect index rebounded to -12.6 in Aug after -16.3 month
earlier.
|
| 21.08 08:12 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y112.00 Resistance 2: Y110.70 Resistance 1: Y110.20 Current price: Y108.80 Support 1: Y108.40 Support 2: Y107.20 Support 3: Y106.60 Comments: Today the dollar fell against the yen on speculation credit- market losses will prompt the Federal Reserve to hold off from raising interest rates. Support at 6-days channel line on Y109.40 was broken and now rate targets Wednesday’s lows on Y108.35/40 and then – to Y107.20 (Aug 01 lows). Resistance comes on Y110.10 (the upper bound of the channel from Jul 15). Above there is a chance of testing Friday’s highs on Y110.70. Key resistance is around Y112.00/10 (channel line from Mar 2008).
|
| 21.08 08:04 |
FRANCE: Aug flash manufacturing PMI 45.1 |
| 21.08 07:38 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1180 Resistance 2: Chf1.1080 Resistance 1: Chf1.1030 Current price: Chf1.0917 Support 1: Chf1.0880 Support 2: Chf1.0600 Support 3: Chf1.0720 Comments: Dollar corrects down Thursday after yesterday’s rally. Philadelphia Fed index is schedule to release today at 14:00 GMT with analysts predict index rebounded to -12.6 in August after -16.3 month earlier. In general, techs picture hasn’t changed. Support is near Tuesday/Wednesday’s lows on Chf1.0880/90 with stronger – on Chf1.0800 (23.6% of Chf1.0030 - Chf1.1030 rise). Channel support line from Jul 16 also passes here. Resistance is near yesterday’s highs on Chf1.1040 with a break above will open the way to Chf1.1100. Next band of resistance is around Jan 07 high on Chf1.1180/90.
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| 21.08 07:25 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8840 Resistance 2: $1.8780 Resistance 1: $1.8700 Current price: $1.8684 Support 1: $1.8620 Support 2: $1.8510 Support 3: $1.8300 Comments: GBP/USD following the euro in upward move after it held near multiyear’s lows Wednesday. Bearish tone of the Aug MPC’s minutes dragged the pound down yesterday as it said the inflation risks weakened recently. It cut market expectations as to the possible rate hike in the future. Rate breaks above the upper bound of the triangle pattern on hourly charts and getting close to $1.8700. Break above will target Aug 14 highs on $1.8780. Strong resistance may be mentioned around 23.6% Fibo on $1.8840 (of the $1.9930 - $1.8510 move). Support is around session low on $1.8600 with a break under will target the lower bound of the triangle at $1.8540. Stronger level is still near $1.8300 (38.2% of the rally from Jun 2001 lows at $1.3670 to Nov 2007 highs at $2.1160).
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| 21.08 06:50 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4950 Resistance 2: $1.4880 Resistance 1: $1.4800 Current price: $1.4779 Support 1: $1.4680 Support 2: $1.4630 Support 3: $1.4460 Comments: EUR/USD rebounds Thursday after yesterday’s sell-off amid German Minister of economy said the growth is “contained”. Last week’s report showed EU economy contracted 0.5% on quarterly basis in the second quarter, the first time for the last four years. Today’s resistance is near Wednesday’s high on $1.4800. Above than level the rise may extend to $1.4860/80 and $1.4950 (23.6% of $1.6030 - $1.4630 decline). Interim support comes near 2-days channel line on $1.4680 with stronger one – on Tuesday’s low at $1.4630. Key support comes at channel line from Jul 15 on $1.4460.
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| 21.08 06:31 |
Major European bourses are initially seen trading lower Thursday: the FTSE lower by 20, the DAX down 30, the CAC down 25 and the Eurostoxx 50 down 15 |
| 21.08 06:14 |
Daily History for Aug 20, 2008
High Low Close EUR/USD 1.4798 1.4670 1.4741 USD/JPY 110.26 109.60 109.85 GBP/USD 1.8685 1.8537 1.8611 USD/CHF 1.1041 1.0900 1.0987
EUR/JPY 162.58 161.42 161.95 EUR/GBP 0.7933 0.7896 0.7919 GBP/JPY 205.15 204.08 204.44 GBP/CHF 2.0494 2.0359 2.0447
Change % Change Last Nikkei -13.36 -0.1% 12,851.69 Topix -2.17 -0.2% 1,233.37 FTSE +51.40 +0.97% 5,371.80 DAX +35.37 +0.56% 6,317.80 CAC +33.08 +0.76% 4,365.87 Dow +68.88 +0.61% 11,417.43 NASDAQ +4.72 +0.20% 2,389.08 S&P +7.85 +0.62% 1,274.54 10yr Note -0.4300 -0.112% 3.799% NYMEX Crude Oil +0.45 +0.39% 114.98 Gold -0.50 -0.06% 816.30
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| 21.08 06:02 |
Schedule for today, Thursday, Aug 21, 2008
08:30 UK Retail sales (July) -0.3% -3.9% 08:30 UK Retail sales (July) Y/Y 1.7% 2.2% 11:00 Canada CPI (July) - 0.7% 11:00 Canada CPI (July) Y/Y - 3.1% 11:00 Canada CPI excluding food and energy (July) - 0.0% 11:00 Canada CPI excluding food and energy (July) Y/Y - 1.2% 12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 16.08) 435K 450K 14:00 USA Leading indicators (July) -0.3% -0.1% 14:00 USA Philadelphia Fed index (August) -15.0 -16.3 20:30 USA M2 money supply (09.08), bln - -8.8 23:50 Japan BoJ meeting minutes (14-15.07)
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