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| 18.09 13:20 |
European session: [M]
The dollar fell versus the euro as investor demand for U.S. government
bonds waned and stocks rose. The yield on the two- year Treasury note
rose 9 basis points to 1.73 percent. Yields move inversely to bond
prices. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index advanced 0.6 percent and
December futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index climbed
1.4 percent.
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro after the world's biggest
central banks said they will act jointly to revive the financial
markets.
The yen dropped versus the most-traded currencies after the Federal
Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank joined with their
counterparts around the world in a coordinated drive to reverse the
seizure in credit markets. The cost of borrowing in dollars for three
months jumped yesterday by the most since 1999 on concern losses and
bankruptcies among financial institutions will spread.
The yen typically falls when appetite for higher-yielding currencies
rises as traders put on so-called carry trades that take advantage of
interest-rate differentials. The Japanese currency fell 2 percent to
70.53 per New Zealand dollar and 1.9 percent to 84.34 against the
Australian dollar.
EUR/USD posted a strong rally from $1.4280 to $1.4541. Bids $1.4500/10, $1.4520/25, $1.4540.
GBP/USD Rate recovered to $1.8200 as market discounted rumour,
boosted to $1.8250 on strong retail sales data. Rate dipped to $1.8180,
as euro picked up a bid tone, taking euro-sterling to stg0.7947. Cable
late rally to highs. Bids $1.8200, $1.8180/70.
USD/JPY opened European dealing around Y104.65, the central
bank liquidity measures then pushing the pair up sharply to
Y105.57. Subsequent dollar weakness took dollar-yen un.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims data,
which is expected to fall 5,000 to 440,000 in the Sept 13 employment
survey week, above the 435,000 level in the August employment survey
week. At 1400GMT, the Philly Fed survey for September and leading
indicators for August are due. The Philadelphia Fed index is expected
to
improve to a reading o -7.7, still an indication of contraction in that
region. The leading indicators index is expected to fall 0.2% after the
0.7% decline in the previous month. Negative contributions are expected
from the spike in jobless claims and an acceleration in supplier
deliveries.
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| 18.09 12:08 |
European focus:
The dollar fell versus the euro as investor demand for U.S.
government bonds waned and stocks rose. The yield on the two- year
Treasury note rose 9 basis points to 1.73 percent. Yields move
inversely to bond prices. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index advanced
0.6 percent and December futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock
Index climbed 1.4 percent.
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro after the world's biggest
central banks said they will act jointly to revive the financial
markets.
The yen dropped versus the most-traded currencies after the Federal
Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank joined with their
counterparts around the world in a coordinated drive to reverse the
seizure in credit markets. The cost of borrowing in dollars for three
months jumped yesterday by the most since 1999 on concern losses and
bankruptcies among financial institutions will spread.
``Intervention by central banks helps to reduce risk aversion and will
weaken the yen in a knee-jerk reaction,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency
strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in London. ``But we still
believe it will take more to turn this market around and are bullish on
the yen.''
The yen typically falls when appetite for higher-yielding currencies
rises as traders put on so-called carry trades that take advantage of
interest-rate differentials. The Japanese currency fell 2 percent to
70.53 per New Zealand dollar and 1.9 percent to 84.34 against the
Australian dollar.
``We're seeing a modest rebound in risk appetite,'' said Adam Cole,
head of global currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London. The
joint intervention ``signals that they will do what they can to help us
through this situation,'' he said.
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| 18.09 11:45 |
EUR/USD:
Correction off the $1.4541 highs found support back at reported bid
level at $1.4480, with rate once again back above $1.4500, currently
trading around $1.4508 after touching a recovery high around $1.4518.
Offers now seen placed between $1.4520/25, a break above to open a move
back toward earlier rally highs, with offers noted between
$1.4540/50. Above here and rate can push on toward $1.4575. Bids remain in place at 1.4480.
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| 18.09 11:24 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y106.60
Resistance 2: Y105.30
Resistance 1: Y104.90
Current price: Y104,81
Support 1: Y104.10
Support 2: Y103.50 Support 3: Y102.60
Comments: Tech on euro hasn't changed. Support is
around session low on Y104.10/00. Below losses may widen to Tuesday’s
low on Y103.50. Resistance comes at session high on Y104.90/00, then –
at Y105.30. Stronger – at yesterday’s high on Y106.60.
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| 18.09 11:04 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1250 Resistance 2: Chf1.1160
Resistance 1: Chf1.1050
Current price: Chf1.0947
Support 1: Chf1.0960
Supporrt 2: Chf1.0880
Suppot 3: Chf1.0840
Comments: USD/CHF test support at around session low on Chf1.0960. Strong support is around Chf1. 0880
(38.2% of Chf1.0012 – Chf1.1422 rally), then – Chf1.0840. Resistance is
near Chf1.1050/60, further – Chf1.1160 with stronger level comes on
Chf1.1250 (Tuesday’s high).
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| 18.09 10:50 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8460
Resistance 2: $1.8300
Resistance 1: $1.8240
Current price: $1.8207
Support 1: $1.8120
Support 2: $1.8020 Support 3: $1.7960
Comments: GBP/USD has tested support in a sessional low on $1.8120.
Below support is noted on $1.8020 and further on $1.7960. Minor
resistance is around
Wednesday’s high on $1.8240, then – at $1.8300/00. Key resistance comes
at 38.2% Fibo of $2.0132 - $$1.7640 decline on $1.8460/70.
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| 18.09 10:32 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4560
Resistance 2: $1.4480
Resistance 1: $1.4440
Current price: $1.4421
Support 1: $1.4300
Support 2: $1.4240
Support 3: $1.4100
Comments: EUR/USD challenges resistance line on $1.4440 (Jan low). Next band of resistance
remains at $1.4480 (15 Sep high). Support comes at session lows on
$1.4300, then – at $1.4240 (50% of the $1.4100 - $1.4400 rally).
Stronger level is around yesterday’s low on $1.4100.
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| 18.09 10:19 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1000EDT/1400GMT cut
EUR/USD $1.4325, $1.4360, $1.4225, $1.4070, $1.4050, $1.4040
USD/JPY Y105.20, Y104.65, Y106.75, Y106.85
EUR/CHF Chf1.5850
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| 18.09 10:09 |
Asian session: Yen falls against ollar as Central Banks announce joint action [M]
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro after the world's biggest
central banks said they will act jointly to revive the financial
markets.
The yen dropped versus the most-traded currencies after the Federal
Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and
Bank of England said they are taking coordinated action to ease the
freeze in bank lending. The cost of borrowing in dollars for three
months jumped yesterday by the most since 1999 on concern losses and
bankruptcies among financial institutions will spread.
``Intervention by central banks helps to reduce risk aversion and will
weaken the yen in a knee-jerk reaction,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency
strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in London. ``But we still
believe it will take more to turn this market around and are bullish on
the yen.''
EUR/USD Retests earlier $1.4395 highs, the break above $1.4360
said to have provided the impetus. Rate makes a show above $1.4400 to
$1.4402 but seen struggling in its initial attempts to progress higher.
GBP/USD Spiked up to $1.8250, from around $1.8090.
USD/JPY Spikes 60-points as the greenback gets a widespread
boost on the co-ordinated central bank liquidity measures just
announced. Dollar-yen hits fresh highs for the day around the Y105.30
area at time of writing.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims data, which is
expected to fall 5,000 to 440,000 in the Sept 13 employment survey
week, above the 435,000 level in the August employment survey week. At
1400GMT, the Philly Fed survey for September and leading indicators for
August are due. The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to
improve to a reading o -7.7, still an indication of contraction in that
region. The leading indicators index is expected to fall 0.2% after the
0.7% decline in the previous month. Negative contributions are expected
from the spike in jobless claims and an acceleration in supplier
deliveries.
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| 18.09 09:55 |
Stock market: Wednesday summary
Japan stocks rebounded from a three- year low as investors snapped
up companies whose earnings may withstand an economic slowdown, while
insurers rose after the U.S. government took over American
International Group Inc.
Japan Tobacco Inc. jumped 6.3 percent,
sending a gauge of food-related stocks to the sharpest gain in almost
two years. Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., Japan's biggest insurance group,
rose 5.3 percent after the Federal Reserve announced a rescue plan for
cash-strapped AIG. Shinsei Bank Ltd. sank to a record low after
announcing the biggest potential loss among Japanese banks from Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc.'s collapse.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose
140.07, or 1.2 percent, to close at 11,749.79 in Tokyo. The broader
Topix index rose 3.86, or 0.4 percent, to 1,121.43, after earlier
gaining as much as 2.1 percent. Twenty of 33 industry groups on the
Topix climbed.
The Federal Reserve Board, with support of the U.S.
Treasury, invoked emergency powers to lend up to $85 billion to AIG to
save the firm from collapse. Shares in Japanese banks and brokerages
jumped in the morning session on confidence AIG's rescue would calm
turmoil in financial markets.
Stocks paired gains after CNBC
reported on its Web site that Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S.
securities firm, is weighing whether to remain independent or merge
with a bank. The report came two days after rival brokerage Merrill
Lynch & Co. agreed to be bought by Bank of America Corp.
Japan
Tobacco, the world's third-largest listed cigarette maker which also
sells soft drinks and frozen food, leapt 6.3 percent to 438,000 yen,
sending the Topix Food Index to its biggest advance since December
2006. Japan Tobacco traded at 16.5 times earnings yesterday, the
cheapest in at least a year.
Torii Pharmaceutical Co., a drugmaker
controlled by Japan Tobacco, soared 6.8 percent to 1,622 yen, the most
since April 2004. Astellas Pharma Inc., Japan's second-largest
drugmaker, the sharpest gain since Aug. 4.
Makers of foods and drugs contributed about half of the Topix's gain.
Tokio
Marine jumped 5.3 percent to 3,400 yen, recovering some of yesterday's
13 percent plunge. Sony Financial Holdings Inc., which operates
insurance and banking subsidiaries, added 3.1 percent to 432,000 yen.
Sompo Japan Insurance Inc. rose 2.1 percent to 867 yen.
European stocks posted the steepest three-day slide since 2002 after
U.S. housing starts trailed forecasts and banks' borrowing costs jumped
the most since 1999, deepening concern the real-estate slump and
credit- market turmoil will push the region's economy into a recession. Hochtief
AG, Germany's biggest builder, dropped 4.6 percent after the Commerce
Department said housing starts sank to the lowest level in 17 years.
Fortis and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc retreated for a third day,
leading financial shares lower as the cost of borrowing in dollars for
three months surged. Anglo American Plc slid 9.3 percent and Xstrata
Plc fell 8.2 percent on concern the economic slump will hurt demand for
meta
U.S. stocks
tumbled as bank lending seized up in the wake of the government's
takeover of American International Group Inc., raising concern that
more of the nation's biggest financial companies will fail.
Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the two remaining independent U.S.
securities firms after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed and
Merrill Lynch & Co. was taken over, plunged the most ever. General
Electric Co., the world's third-biggest company, fell 8.7 percent and
U.S. Steel Corp. slid 11 percent. Yields on three-month Treasury bills
sank to a 54-year low as investors sought the relative safety of
government debt, and a measure of corporate borrowing costs surged to
the highest since the crash of 1987.
Gold and silver surged as
investors turned to precious metals as a store of value. Newmont Mining
Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, rose 12 percent to $42.25 for
the second- biggest gain in the S&P 500. AIG, the largest U.S.
insurer by assets, lost $1.44, or 38 percent, to $2.31 and extended its
decline over the past year to 97 percent, after the government said it
will receive a 79.9 percent stake in return for an $85 billion loan
that analysts said will be repaid by liquidating the company. Goldman
slid $32.68, or 25 percent, to $100.33, its steepest drop ever.
Oppenheimer cut its fourth-quarter earnings estimate to $2.60 a share
from $3.45.
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| 18.09 09:32 |
UK Retail sales (August) 1,2%, Y/Y 3,3% |
| 18.09 09:06 |
FOREX. Wednesday summary [M]
The dollar declined against the yen as the Federal Reserve's $85
billion bailout of insurer American International Group Inc. failed to
quell concern credit market losses will deepen.
The Fed will provide AIG with a two-year loan, take 79.9 percent of the
New York-based company's stock and replace its management. The central
bank kept its target rate for overnight lending between banks at 2
percent yesterday, rebuffing calls by some investors for an
interest-rate cut.
However, with the FOMC now signaling no change in rates going forward
and possibly considering cutting rates, that impetus has been removed.
Indeed, much to the dismay of the Fed, their intervention in AIG failed
to soothe investors' fears about the health of the markets, as
indicated by the 4% or more drops in the DJIA and S&P 500. These
moves were led by declines in financials, as shares of the two
remaining 'big 5' investment banks fell by the most on record. This
risk aversion also translated into massive flight-to-safety toward US
Treasuries, as yields on 3-month Treasury bills fell to a 54-year low.
The US is not alone in experiencing massive banking consolidations,
such as the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America, as UK bank Lloyds
TSB will reportedly acquire HBOS, which is the nation's biggest
mortgage lender. Indeed, after the nationalization of Northern Rock
earlier in the year, the UK government is surely looking to avoid
having to take such measures once again. Meanwhile, the minutes from
the Bank of England's September meeting revealed an 8-1 vote in favor
of leaving rates steady, with one dissent in favor of 50bp cut.
The Japanese yen experienced wild volatility on Wednesday as the DJIA
plummeted over 4 percent while flight-to-safety sent yields on 3-month
Treasury bills to 54 year lows. Indeed, the low-yielder plunged nearly
1 percent against the British pound, but jumped over 2 percent versus
the Australian dollar.
UK retail sales are also due at 0830GMT. Retail sales are expected to come in at -0.5% m/m, 1.6% y/y.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims data,
which is expected to fall 5,000 to 440,000 in the Sept 13 employment
survey week, above the 435,000 level in the August employment survey
week. At 1400GMT, the Philly Fed survey for September and leading
indicators for August are due. The Philadelphia Fed index is expected
to
improve to a reading o -7.7, still an indication of contraction in that
region. The leading indicators index is expected to fall 0.2% after the
0.7% decline in the previous month. Negative contributions are expected
from the spike in jobless claims and an acceleration in supplier
deliveries.
|
| 18.09 08:47 |
JAPAN STOCKS:
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended the day lower, although
almost halving early losses. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 236.23
points, or 2.22%, at 11 497.62. The index was earlier down over 400
points. The broader-based TOPIX was down 23.75 points at 1097.68.
|
| 18.09 08:13 |
G10 central banks announce announce steps to ease dollar liquidity |
| 18.09 08:01 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y106.60 Resistance 2: Y105.30 Resistance 1: Y104.90 Current price: Y104,81 Support 1: Y104.10 Support 2: Y103.50
Support 3: Y102.60 Comments: The dollar fell for a second day against the yen on speculation more
financial institutions will fail as bank lending seizes up. Support is
around session low on Y104.10/00. Below losses may widen to Tuesday’s
low on Y103.50. Resistance comes at session high on Y104.90/00, then –
at Y105.30. Stronger – at yesterday’s high on Y106.60.
|
| 18.09 07:42 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1250
Resistance 2: Chf1.1160
Resistance 1: Chf1.1050
Current price: Chf1.1048
Support 1: Chf1.0960
Support 2: Chf1.0880
Support 3: Chf1.0840
Comments: USD/CHF holds under pressure after yesterday’s sell-off. Support is
around session low on Chf1.0960. Strong support is around Chf1. 0880
(38.2% of Chf1.0012 – Chf1.1422 rally), then – Chf1.0840. Resistance is
near Chf1.1050/60, further – Chf1.1160 with stronger level comes on
Chf1.1250 (Tuesday’s high).
|
| 18.09 07:21 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8460
Resistance 2: $1.8300
Resistance 1: $1.8240
Current price: $1.8226
Support 1: $1.8120
Support 2: $1.8020
Support 3: $1.7960
Comments: GBP/USD consolidates above broken yesterday channel resistance line
from Jul 31 at $1.8020 (now strong support). Today’s data include UK
Retail sales and M4 money supply. Minor resistance is around
Wednesday’s high on $1.8240, then – at $1.8300/00. Key resistance comes
at 38.2% Fibo of $2.0132 - $$1.7640 decline on $1.8460/70. Support
comes at session low on $1.8120. Break back under $1.8020 will widen
losses to $1.7960.
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| 18.09 07:03 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4560
Resistance 2: $1.4480
Resistance 1: $1.4370
Current price: $1.4369
Support 1: $1.4300
Support 2: $1.4240
Support 3: $1.4100
Comments: EUR/USD challenges channel resistance line from Jul 22 on $1.4370/80
after it failed to break it above earlier. Next band of resistance
remains at $1.4480 (15 Sep high). Support comes at session lows on
$1.4300, then – at $1.4240 (50% of the $1.4100 - $1.4400 rally).
Stronger level is around yesterday’s low on $1.4100.
|
| 18.09 06:40 |
Daily History for Sep 17, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.4382 1.4092 1.4324
USD/JPY 106.70 104.11 104.33
GBP/USD 1.8243 1.7784 1.8138
USD/CHF 1.1245 1.0991 1.1043
EUR/JPY 151.52 147.48 149.44
EUR/GBP 0.7982 0.7861 0.7894
GBP/JPY 192.04 186.82 189.25
GBP/CHF 2.0146 1.9920 2.0024
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 +140.07 +1.20% 11,749.79
Topix +3.86 +0.40% 1,121.43
FTSE -113.20 -2.25% 4,912.40
DAX -104.19 -1.75% 5,860.98
CAC -87.29 -2.14% 4,000.11
Dow -448.22 -4.05% 10,610.80
NASDAQ -109.05 -4.94% 2,098.85
S&P -57.39 -4.73% 1,156.21
10yr Note -0.8100 -0.232% 3.410%
NYMEX Crude Oil +6.01 +6.59% 97.16
Gold +70.00 +8.97% 850.50
|
| 18.09 06:22 |
Schedule for today, Thursday, Sep 18, 2008
08:30 UK PSNCR (July), bln -12,6
08:30 UK M4 lending (July) provisional, bln +12,4
08:30 UK M4 money supply (July) provisional Y/Y 11,2%
08:30 UK M4 money supply (July) provisional 0,9%
08:30 UK Retail sales (August) Y/Y 2,1%
08:30 UK Retail sales (August) 0,8%
12:00 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision 2,75%
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 13.09) 440К 445К
14:00 USA Philadelphia Fed index (September) -7,7 -12,7
14:00 USA Leading indicators (August) -0,2% -0,7%
20:00 USA M2 money supply (08.09), bln -5.5
22:45 New Zealand Current Account (2Q) -2,2В
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