|
|
| 16.09 20:02 |
Dow +112.65 at 11031.01, Nasdaq +14.61 at 2193.91, S&P +13.35 at 1206.05
The major indices rebound after Bloomberg.com reports its sources said
the Fed is reconsidering its stance on helping AIG (AIG 5.09, +0.33),
and the company may get a loan package from the Federal Reserve.
Shares of AIG are now posting a gain on the day, after trading down as much as 73.7% to $1.25.
FDIC Chairwoman Blair said banks are safe and sound, according to
Reuters. Blair added that insurance funds for deposits will be
adequate to absorb any losses.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq hit fresh session highs. Eight of the
ten sectors are posting a gain, with the financial sector up 4.1%
|
| 16.09 19:56 |
Miller, Tabak on Fed
Analyst Tony Crescenzi of Miller, Tabak says "The Fed did clearly lean
toward the possibility of interest rate cuts with its opening remarks
about financial markets and labor market conditions." He suggest rate
cuts are possible but Fed first wants to see if mkts can heal
themselves.
|
| 16.09 19:55 |
RBC on FOMC
Analyst TJ Marta at RBC says "The FOMC statement erred on the hawkish
side, as the balanced assessment of risks does not comport with the
recent and ongoing deleveraging in the commodities markets along with
the rising slack in employment and industrial capacity. However, they
are keeping their rate cut "powder dry" should the downside risks to
growth evelop."
|
| 16.09 19:51 |
Barclays chief says on CNBC that is buying Lehman inv bank for $2b. |
| 16.09 19:35 |
FOMC Statement
Cites financial mkt strains that "have increased significantly" and
weaker labor mkts. Says downside risks to growth and upside risks to
infl are both "of significant concern" (no bias). Outlook still expects
inflation to moderate tho now says tight credit, hsg correction,
slowing exports will weigh on growth. Vote: 10-1.
|
| 16.09 19:14 |
FOMC left rate unch at 2% |
| 16.09 19:00 |
Dow +50.40 at 10967.50, Nasdaq -0.39 at 2179.52, S&P +4.05 at 1196.57 |
| 16.09 19:00 |
HSBC just altered its call for FOMC to -50bp today, saying "If in doubt, cut"
"Given the gravity of the
situation on a liquidity, capital shortage and longer-term macro basis
we think the Fed will probably cut rates today."
|
| 16.09 18:54 |
Analysts at GS say "WTI Crude broke through $98 support and now targets $84."
Crude trades at $91.28, off earlier lows at $90.51.
|
| 16.09 18:50 |
American focus: market awaits FOMC decision
The yen touched a
two-year high against the euro as the debt-rating downgrade of American
International Group Inc. fueled concern credit markets are seizing up
after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Japan's currency erased its gain versus the dollar and pared its advance against the euro as financial network CNBC reported that U.S. ``assistance'' to AIG is a possibility. The
dollar may fall further against the yen as investors cover short
positions against Japan's currency, according to Robert Blake, a
strategist in Boston at State Street Global MarketsLLC, which has $15.3 trillion in assets under custody. ``Our
flow data suggest sophisticated institutional investors remain short on
the yen,'' Blake said. ``I would be hesitant to put a bottom on the
dollar-yen.'' A short position is a bet a currency will decline. The
yen gained as much as 2.5 percent to 67.25 against the New Zealand
dollar, the strongest level since November 2003, and 3.5 percent to
81.43 versus the Aussie as investors reduced carry trades, in which
they borrow where interest rates are low and buy higher-yielding assets
elsewhere. Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate compares with 4.25
percent in Europe, 7 percent in Australia and 7.5 percent in New
Zealand. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0.5 percent after posting the steepest drop since September 2001 yesterday. The
Fed added $50 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system after
injecting $70 billion yesterday, the most since the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks. The European Central Bank offered 70 billion euros
($99.8 billion) in a one- day money-market auction today. Futures on
the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 100 percent chance the Fed would
reduce the target rate for overnight lending by a quarter-percentage
point. Traders saw a 2 percent chance of a rate cut a week ago. ``The
market is expecting the Fed to calm things down,'' said Henry Wilkes,
head of foreign-exchange trading at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
in London. ``Whether they actually will is another matter. We're
heading into unprecedented waters with the concerns about AIG and the
contagion into the insurance market. A lot of people are a bit
shell-shocked.'' The dollar may fall to 101.45 yen after it
dropped below support of 104.95, wrote Andrew Chaveriat, a technical
analyst at BNP Paribas SA in New York, in a research note yesterday. A support level is where buy orders cluster.
|
| 16.09 18:24 |
BAS says Fed will attempt to separate mon-policy from crisis management today
"FOMC will attempt to separate
its current monetary policy decision from the circumstances surrounding
particular financial institutions." Fed may lower DR by 25bp, BAS says,
and will mention the banking/mkts crisis in the statement.
|
| 16.09 18:03 |
US: Sept NAHB Hsg Mkt index 18, vs a record low of 16. |
| 16.09 17:53 |
Newedge Strategy on CPI
Economist Annalisa Piazza at Newedge
Strategy says lower energy drove CPI. She says "inflation levels are
still elevated and the Fed is unlikely to give the all-clear on
inflation pressures in the near term. However, inflation doesn't seem
to be the main priority at the current juncture" - mkts are.
|
| 16.09 17:45 |
Dow +27.52 at 10943.08, Nasdaq +5.13 at 2185.04, S&P +2.78 at 1196.01
The major indices trade with modest gains as the financial sector (+2.9%) provides leadership.
Within financials, 63 of the 87 components are posting a gain. Merrill
Lynch (MER 20.25, +3.19), Washington Mutual (WM 2.24, +0.24) and
Wachovia (WB 12.09, +1.38) are among the biggest percent gainers. AIG
(AIG 2.92, -1.84) and Morgan Stanley (MS 26.53, -5.65) are among the
biggest percent decliners.
The energy sector has made a nice rebound, even as oil prices post a
4.0% loss. The sector is up 0.4% after falling as much as 3.6% in
earlier trade.
Airlines are getting a nice 7.3% boost from lower energy prices.
|
| 16.09 17:37 |
ECB's Weber and Draghi say no reason to cut rates due to Lehman bankruptcy. |
| 16.09 17:17 |
RBS Greenwich Capital on CPI
"Core CPI does not appear to be accelerating or moderating, but feels
very steady at around 2 1/2%, somewhat faster than the Fed would like
to see," said Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
|
| 16.09 17:16 |
Dow +32.90 at 10946.74, Nasdaq +7.18 at 2185.59, S&P +3.09 at 1195.79
The S&P 500 spikes to positive territory after CNBC reported that a
government bailout of AIG (AIG 3.94, -0.82) is a possiblity. The
S&P 500 is currently up 0.3%, which is a large recovery from its a
loss of 2.0% that was reached shortly after the opening bell.
CNBC's sources said the Fed is in talks with AIG, and some sort of
goverment assistance in bailing out the struggling insurance giant is
now on the table.
The financial sector has seen massive swings this session, going from a
loss of 3.7% at its low to a gain of 4.1% at its high. The sector is
currently up 3.4%.
Treasuries give up gains as stocks recover. The 10-year note is only up two ticks, after being up a full point in early trade.
In overseas trading, Russia's most liquid stock exchange, MICEX,
suspended trade following a 17% one day decline. Bank stocks fell the
most.
|
| 16.09 16:05 |
ECB WEBER: FINANCIAL MKT CRISIS TO CONTINUE IN COMING MONTHS
--CRISIS WARRANTS COMPREHENSIVE/COORDINATED INTL RESPONSE
--FIN MARKETS' RISK AVERSION RISEN DUE TO LEHMAN COLLAPSE
--POSITIVE SIGN NO MARKET OVERREACTION TO LEHMAN COLLAPSE
--GERMANY FIN SYSTEM STABLE; BANKS W/O LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS
|
| 16.09 16:00 |
RDQ Economics: no surprises
"However, food prices continued to pressure prices higher,
offsetting some of the relief from lower energy prices and core
inflation still remained somewhat elevated relative to the Fed's
comfort zone."
|
| 16.09 15:59 |
Dow -72.72 at 10852.72, Nasdaq -23.08 at 2157.85, S&P -12.53 at 1180.81 |
| 16.09 15:10 |
MS says CPI "did not contain any major surprises." |
| 16.09 14:51 |
Dow -72.72 at 10852.72, Nasdaq -23.08 at 2157.85, S&P -12.53 at 1180.81
The stock market tumbles at the open extending the previous session's
massive loss -- which was the S&P 500's largest loss in seven
years. Once again financial market turmoil is sparking the selling
interest.
AIG (AIG 2.00, -2.76) is down 58% after having its credit ratings cut
at Standard & Poor's and Moody's. Goldman Sachs (GS 121.15,
-14.23) fell to a fresh 52-week low after reporting a 72%
year-over-year drop in earnings per share. Washington Mutual (WM 1.70,
-0.30) had its outlook downgraded at Standard & Poor's and had its
counterparty credit rating lowered to junk.
The overnight dollar libor, the interest rate banks charge to lend
dollars overnight, doubled following yesterday's developments, leading
the Fed and overseas central banks to pump liquidity into the system.
The FOMC makes its policy announcent announcement at 2:15 ET. Fed funds
futures are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut to 1.75%, and
even suggest a modest chance of a 50 basis point cut. Last week there
was no chance of a rate cut.
As a result, Treasuries are rallying, with the 10-year note up a 25
ticks , sending its yield down to 3.29% -- the lowest yield since 2003
In news outside financials, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 44.97, -0.36) will
take a $1.7 billion charge related to its EDS acquisition, which
includes cutting 7.5% of its workforce, or 24,600 employees. Dell (DELL
16.40, -1.59) said it is seeing further softening in global end-user
demand.
On the positive side, CPI decreased 0.1% in August due to a drop in fuel costs. Core CPI rose 0.2%.
Crude prices are tumbling once again, down 4.5% to $91.40 per barrel.
|
| 16.09 14:36 |
Lehman says financial crisis is a problem:
"We expect a 25bp cut on Tuesday, with another 50bp in cuts by end Q1
2009. We see the Fed shifting its emphasis to supporting growth and
stabilizing the fallout from the most recent financial market tremors.
|
| 16.09 14:25 |
Before the bell:
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures hit session lows: S&P futures
vs fair value: -21.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.30. Stock
markets in Japan and Hong Kong, which were closed yesterday for a
holiday, saw a steep sell off on the financial market turmoil. Japan's
Nikkei fell 5.0% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 5.4%. In Europe,
London's FTSE is down 3.6%, German's DAX is down 2.0% and France's CAC
40 is down 2.3%. In economic news, net foreign purchases declined to
$6.1 billion in July from $53.4 billion in June.
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on Monday, Merrill Lynch agreed
to be purchased by Bank of America (BAV), and American International
Group continues to be hit by downgrades even as it struggles to come up
with capital.
Oil traded down $4.05 to $91.66 a barrel after reaching as low as
$90.83. On Monday, oil traded down $5.47 to settle at $95.71 a barrel.
|
| 16.09 14:00 |
US: July TICS data: Net foreign acquisition of l-t secs $6.1 bn. Monthly net TIC flows -$74.8 bn. |
| 16.09 13:54 |
FTSE-100 breaks below 5,000 mark-- hits lowest level since June 9, 2005.
|
| 16.09 13:30 |
US: Aug CPI -0.1% and core +0.2% (+0.1942% unrounded)
YOY CPI is running +5.4% and YOY core +2.5%
|
| 16.09 13:04 |
European session: [M]
The yen rose to near a two-year high against the euro as the
debt-rating downgrade of American International Group Inc. fueled
concern credit markets will seize up after the collapse of Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc., prompting traders to pare so-called carry
trades.
The yen jumped to the highest level in more than two years against the
Australian and New Zealand dollars as a global stock-market rout
encouraged investors to cut purchases of higher-yielding assets funded
in Japan. The dollar rose versus the euro before a meeting of the
Federal Reserve today at which traders expect policy makers to cut
interest rates to buoy financial markets.
AIG's credit downgrades by Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors
Service may threaten efforts to raise emergency funds to keep the
company afloat. The largest U.S. insurer by assets is seeking $70
billion to $75 billion in loans arranged by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to people familiar with the
situation.
Lehman filed for bankruptcy yesterday after Bank of America Corp. and
Barclays Plc pulled out of talks to buy the New York- based bank.
The Japanese currency typically advances when demand for riskier assets
wanes, as investors reduce carry trades. In such transactions, they
borrow in low interest-rate countries to buy higher-yielding assets
elsewhere, earning the spread between the two.
The euro fell even after the ZEW Center for European Economic Research
in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations rose to
minus 41.1, from minus 55.5 in August. That's the highest reading since
April this year. Economists expected an increase to minus 53.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed a 68 percent
chance the Fed will lower its 2 percent target rate for overnight
lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point when it meets
today, compared with no chance a week ago. Policy makers are scheduled
to announce their decision at 18:15 GMT.
EUR/USD A better than expected Ifo survey provided some relief,
taking the rate from $1.4245 to $1.4277 before a general round of
dollar strength knocked the pair back under $1.4200 and on to session
lows at $1.4162, heading into US trade around $1.4190. Bids $1.4150/40,
stops below, bids $1.4100/85, offers $1.4280.
GBP/USD Dollar came under pressure into early Europe, with cable
moving up in tandem with euro-dollar, but offers ahead of $1.8000
capped at $1.7997 before slipping to $1.7900. Rate edged back,
pivoting around $1.7950 for most of the morning session. Bids $1.7780,
$1.7765/50. Offers $1.7850, $1.7900-40/50.
USD/JPY found
initial support around the July lows at Y103.80, though this proved
short-lived as the rate slipped to the lowest level since May 27 at
Y103.62.
The US calendar is dominated by the FOMC decision, which starts
at 1300GMT and is due to announce later on, at around 1815GMT. US data
starts at 1230GMT, US CPI is expected to hold steady in August, as
gasoline pump prices fell off their record highs. Food prices are
expected to post another gain. Core CPI is expected to rise only 0.2%,
with increased vehicle incentives helping to trim car prices.
|
| 16.09 12:46 |
OIL: OPEC cuts estimate of 2008 world oil demand growth
OPEC cuts estimate of 2008 world oil demand growth by 120,000 bpd to 880,000 bpd, citing strong decline in North Amercian demand. WTI Nymex crude oil breaks below $91.00 level.
|
| 16.09 12:30 |
FTSE-100 hits fresh yearly low below 5,071 and now trading at lowest level since July 7, 2005 |
| 16.09 12:12 |
European focus:
The yen rose to near a two-year high against the euro as the
debt-rating downgrade of American International Group Inc. fueled
concern credit markets will seize up after the collapse of Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc., prompting traders to pare so-called carry
trades.
The yen jumped to the highest level in more than two years against the
Australian and New Zealand dollars as a global stock-market rout
encouraged investors to cut purchases of higher-yielding assets funded
in Japan. The dollar rose versus the euro before a meeting of the
Federal Reserve today at which traders expect policy makers to cut
interest rates to buoy financial markets.
``If I was going to take a position right now, it would be to go long
yen,'' said David Powell, a currency strategist with Bank of America
Corp. in London. ``Risk aversion has taken over.'' A long position is a
bet that a currency or asset will increase in price.
AIG's credit downgrades by Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors
Service may threaten efforts to raise emergency funds to keep the
company afloat. The largest U.S. insurer by assets is seeking $70
billion to $75 billion in loans arranged by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to people familiar with the
situation.
Lehman filed for bankruptcy yesterday after Bank of America Corp. and
Barclays Plc pulled out of talks to buy the New York- based bank.
``It's the end of the world as we know it, at least that is how it
feels,'' said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holdings NV
in Sydney. ``The main beneficiary has been the yen, which is not a
surprise being the typical risk-aversion play and the prospect that
Japanese outflow to foreign markets dries up.''
The Japanese currency typically advances when demand for riskier assets
wanes, as investors reduce carry trades. In such transactions, they
borrow in low interest-rate countries to buy higher-yielding assets
elsewhere, earning the spread between the two.
The euro fell even after the ZEW Center for European Economic Research
in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations rose to
minus 41.1, from minus 55.5 in August. That's the highest reading since
April this year. Economists expected an increase to minus 53.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed a 68 percent
chance the Fed will lower its 2 percent target rate for overnight
lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point when it meets
today, compared with no chance a week ago. Policy makers are scheduled
to announce their decision at 18:15 GMT.
``The market is expecting the Fed to calm things down, whether they
actually will is another matter,'' said Henry Wilkes, head of
foreign-exchange trading at Brown Brothers Harriman in London. ``We're
heading into unprecedented waters with the concerns about AIG and the
contagion into the insurance market. A lot of people are a bit
shell-shocked.''
|
| 16.09 11:48 |
JPM on Fed decision
"We don't see this as the most likely outcome although we recognize
that there is a high possibility that the Fed could ease." Mkt moves
will affect FOMC decision, but most likely is an easing bias and Fed
emaining "committed to supporting the functioning of the financial
system through its liquidity tools." Fed probably has not changed its
forecasts in recent days and a 2% FF rate is already low, JPM says.
|
| 16.09 11:31 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y109.10 Resistance 2: Y107.80 Resistance 1: Y104.70 Current price: Y104.44 Support 1: Y103.60 Support 2: Y102.50 Support 3: Y100.00 Comments:
The yen has reached maximal level for last three months against dollar
- Y103,58 (Y103,60) - the nearest support. Below loss of dollar can
increase up to Y102,50/60 (low May 12) and further to Y100,00 (Apr 10
low). In case of restoration, a rate will encounter resistance in the
field of a sessionl high on Y104.70. Above is located Sep 15 high on
Y106.70 which overcoming will open road to testing Y107.80 (Sep 12
high).
|
| 16.09 11:12 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1420 Resistance 2: Chf1.1290 Resistance 1: Chf1.1210 Current price: Chf1.1124 Support 1: Chf1.1045 Support 2: Chf1.1000 Support 3: Chf1.0940 Comments:
The pair has updated a session low (the nearest support). Following
support is noted on Sep 4 low on Chf1,1000 then losses of a rate can
reach level Chf1,0940. Strong resistance is channel line from Jul 22 on
Chf1,1210. Above located the high of Friday at Chf1,1290. Stronger
level is the Sep 11 high on Chf1,1420.
|
| 16.09 10:54 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8340 Resistance 2: $1.8130 Resistance 1: $1.7980 Current price: $1.7845 Support 1: $1.7760 Support 2: $1.7680 Support 3: $1.7600 Comments:
The
dollar becomes stronger before an output of data on inflation in the
USA. The nearest support is a yesterday's session low on $1.7760. Below
loss can reach a level $1.7680 and further to $1.7600. Intermediate
resistance is asession high on $1.7980. Further growth is possible to Sep 15 high on $1,8130. The following purpose of growth - Aug 29 high on $1.8340.
|
| 16.09 10:37 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4550 Resistance 2: $1.4480 Resistance 1: $1.4280 Current price: $1.4240 Support 1: $1.4180 Support 2: $1.4080 Support 3: $1.4040 Comments: Tech on euro hasn't changed.
Nearest level of support is area of a session low on $1.4180. Then rate
can will decrease to $1,4080 - a yesterday's low. Below loss of euro
can will increase to $1,4040 (high Sep 11, and lows Sep 5,8). The
nearest resistance is channel line on $1,4280, then yesterday's session
high on $1.4480, stronger level - $1.4550 (high Sep 4).
|
| 16.09 10:14 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 14:00GMT cut
EUR/USD $1.4250, $1.4375
USD/JPY Y105.00, Y106.75
USD/CAD C$1.0570
|
| 16.09 10:07 |
Е15 Harmonized CPI (August) final -0,1%, Y/Y 3.8%. Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (August) Y/Y 1,9% |
| 16.09 10:02 |
GERMANY: ZEW Sep economic expectations -41.1 vs Aug -55.5 |
| 16.09 09:59 |
Orders
EUR/USD
Offers $1.4265/70 $1.4280/90
GBP/USD
offers $1.7940
Bids $1.7900, $1.7890
USD/JPY
Bids Y103.60/50,Y103.30/25
EUR/GBP
Bids stg0.7915/10, stg0.7900.
Offers stg0.7950/60,stg0.7980/85
|
| 16.09 09:42 |
Asian session: Yen rises to two-month high on signs credit losses may spread [M]
The
yen rose to a two-month high against the dollar and the Swiss franc
advanced for a third day as American International Group Inc. had its
credit ratings lowered, fueling concern that financial turmoil will
spread after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The yen
jumped to the highest in more than two years against the Australian and
New Zealand dollars as a global stocks rout encouraged investors to cut
so-called carry trades, in which they fund purchases of higher-yielding
assets overseas with Japan's currency. Asian stocks fell the most in
eight months and U.S. shares yesterday posted their biggest decline
since the September 2001 terrorist attacks. The yen gained versus
the Australian dollar and against the New Zealand dollar as investors
reduced carry trades on concern currency-market moves will erase their
profits. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 68 percent
chance the Federal Reserve will lower its 2 percent target rate for
overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point when it
meets today, compared with no chance a week ago. Policy makers are
scheduled to announce their decision at 2:15 p.m. in Washington. Treasuries
extended the biggest rally since the Sept. 11 attacks, pushing the
10-year note's yield down 3 basis points to 3.38 percent. The yield
advantage of the benchmark 10-year note over comparable-maturity
Japanese government securities decreased to 1.85 percentage points
today, the narrowest since October 1993, making the U.S. securities
less attractive. Lehman filed for bankruptcy after Bank of America
Corp. and Barclays Plc pulled out of talks to buy the New York-based
bank. Bank of America, the biggest U.S. consumer bank, instead agreed
to acquire Merrill Lynch & Co. for about $50 billion, as the credit
crisis claimed another of America's oldest financial companies.
 Inflation data is at the head of the European calendar,
starting at 0600GMT with German final HICP, CPI data for August.
Eurozone July EMU13 new car registrations are due at the same time.
Eurozone data at 0900GMT sees August final HICP release at the same
time as Germany September ZEW economic expectations. The final HICP
data is seen coming in at -0.2% m/m, +4.0% y/y, while the German ZEW
data is expected to see the current assessment at -16.5, while the
outlook is seen at -52.8. The US calendar is dominated by the FOMC decision,
which starts at 1300GMT and is due to announce later on, at around
1815GMT. US data starts at 1230GMT, US CPI is expected to hold steady
in August, as gasoline pump prices fell off their record highs. Food
prices are expected to post another gain. Core CPI is expected to rise
only 0.2%, with increased vehicle incentives helping to trim car
prices.
|
| 16.09 09:35 |
UK data
RPI-X (August) Y/Y 5,2%
Retail prices (August) Y/Y 4,8%
Retail prices (August) 0,3%
HICP ex EFAT (August) Y/Y 2,0%
HICP (August) Y/Y 4,7%
HICP (August) 0.6%
|
| 16.09 09:01 |
Stock market: Monday summary
Banking stocks fell sharply across
Europe on Monday as Wall Street’s major institutions joined the frantic
sell off in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse and Bank of
America’s bid for Merrill Lynch. In the UK, HBOS, the
country’s biggest-listed mortgage lender, closed 17.5 per cent lower at
217.3p as investors continued to worry about its own capital position.
The bank was the biggest faller on the market. Barclays , which had
considered bidding for Lehman, lost 9.8 per cent to 316p, Royal Bank of
Scotland fell 10 per cent to 210½p. Standard Chartered was 4.2 per cent
weaker at £13.85. The picture was the same across the continent.
Deutsche Bank lost 6.4 per cent to €54.21 and France’s Crédit Agricole
fell 9.2 per cent to €12.74. UBS was 14½ per cent lower at SFr20.10.
Société Générale was 9.6 per cent lower at €58.74.
U.S. stocks declined, erasing
about $380 billion in value, as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s
bankruptcy and tumbling commodities increased speculation the slump in
financial markets and the economy will deepen. Lehman plunged 94
percent and American International Group Inc. sank 57 percent after
more than $25 billion in losses from subprime-related investments in
the last four quarters made with mostly borrowed money. Economic
concerns pushed down oil, prompting a drop in energy stocks, and sent
General Electric Co. to a 5.9 percent retreat. Stocks pared their
losses during the first 1 1/2 hours of trading, led by gains in
consumer companies including Procter & Gamble Co. and McDonald's
Corp., on speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce rates tomorrow.
Traders in futures contracts gave 60 percent odds the Fed will shift
its target for overnight loans between banks to 1.75 percent from 2
percent. GE, which makes power-plant turbines and jet engines and
offers commercial loans, retreated $1.57 to a five-year low of $25.18.
The company may miss profit estimates because of credit- market
turmoil, according to Citigroup Inc. Caterpillar Inc., the
world's largest maker of construction equipment, fell 2.7 percent to
$63.67. AK Steel Holding Corp. slumped 17 percent to $32.72. Lehman was
forced into bankruptcy after Barclays Plc and Bank of America Corp.
abandoned takeover talks yesterday and the company lost 94 percent of
its market value this year. Lehman sank $3.45 to 20 cent50 Citigroup
Inc., the largest U.S. bank by assets, declined 14 percent to $15.52
for the steepest drop since July 2002. Bank of America retreated 17
percent, the most since Oct. 19, 1987, to $27.97 after agreeing to
purchase Lehman rival Merrill Lynch & Co. for $50 billion. American
Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit card company by purchases, fell 6
percent to $36.62.
|
| 16.09 08:40 |
FOREX. Monday summary [M]
The yen strengthened the most in 10 years against the dollar after
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, prompting traders
to sell assets financed by loans in Japan.
Japan's currency also climbed to near the strongest level in two years
versus the euro as insurer American International Group Inc. failed to
present a plan to raise capital and avoid credit downgrades. The yen
and the Swiss franc rose against every other major currency as
investors reversed carry trades.
The yen gained as much as 3.2 percent to 104.54 per dollar, the most
since October 1998, and traded at 105.86 at 10:27 a.m. in New York,
compared with 107.94 on Sept. 12. The dollar rose 0.3 percent to
$1.4184 per euro, from $1.4224, after weakening to $1.4481 earlier. It
touched $1.3882 on Sept. 11, 2008, the strongest since Sept. 18, 2007.
Japan's currency surged 2.1 percent to 150.21 per euro as investors
reduced trades in which they borrow in countries with low borrowing
costs and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The yen increased 4
percent to 85.37 versus the Australian dollar and 3.6 percent to 69.53
against New Zealand's currency.
Lehman filed a Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the
Southern District of New York after Bank of America Corp. and Barclays
Plc pulled out of talks to buy the New York-based bank.
AIG, trying to stave off credit downgrades that would force it to post
more than $13 billion in collateral, asked the Federal Reserve for a
$40 billion loan after rejecting an offer from J.C. Flowers & Co.,
the New York Times reported, citing an unidentified person.
The dollar weakened versus the yen as expectations for a Fed rate cut
surged. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed an 86 percent
chance the central bank will lower its 2 percent target rate for
overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point tomorrow,
compared with no chance a week ago.
The U.S. currency rose against the euro after Bank of America agreed to
acquire Merrill Lynch & Co. for $50 billion, reducing the risk of
financial collapse, and as investors sought the relative safety of U.S.
Treasuries.
EUR/USD traveresed $1.4160/1.4220 zone, chop dwindling into
midday as flows lightened into the European close and beyond. Afternoon
trading remained muted with euro orbiting a range around $1.4200 as
traders remained risk-averse and mesmerized by stocks. Late trade saw
Dow down 500, euro trading at $1.4310.

GBP/USD printed session high on $1.8129 before slipping to $1.7770. Then the pair was restored in area $1.8015.
USD/JPY falling from Y106.89 to Y104.65 before move back above Y105.00. Later the yen has continued to become stronger.
Inflation data is at the head of the European calendar, starting at
0600GMT with German final HICP, CPI data for August. Eurozone July
EMU13 new car registrations are due at the same time. Eurozone data at
0900GMT sees August final HICP release at the same time as Germany
September ZEW economic expectations. The final HICP data is seen coming
in at -0.2% m/m, +4.0% y/y, while the German ZEW data is expected to
see the current assessment at -16.5, while the outlook is seen at -52.8.
The US calendar is dominated by the FOMC decision, which starts at
1300GMT and is due to announce later on, at around 1815GMT. US data
starts at 1230GMT, US CPI is expected to hold steady in August, as
gasoline pump prices fell off their record highs. Food prices are
expected to post another gain. Core CPI is expected to rise only 0.2%,
with increased vehicle incentives helping to trim car prices.
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| 16.09 08:21 |
JAPAN STOCKS:
Japanese stock indices ended sharply lower, although off the session
lows, as the fall-out form the US fianacial markets weighed heavily.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 605..04 points, or 4.95%, at
11609.72. The broader-based TOPIX was lower by 59.63 points at 1117.57.
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| 16.09 08:05 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y109.10
Resistance 2: Y107.80
Resistance 1: Y106.70
Current price: Y104.01
Support 1: Y104.00
Support 2: Y103.80
Support 3: Y102.50
Comments: The rate has decreased. Support is around session low on
Y104.00, stronger – near Jul 16 low on Y103.80. break under will widen
dollar’s losses to May 12 low on Y102.50/60. Speaking about the
resistance level it should be mentioned the session highs Y106.60/70
zone. Above the rate may recover to Friday’s highs on Y107.80/90.
Further level come at 09 Sep high on Y190.00/10.
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| 16.09 07:41 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1420
Resistance 2: Chf1.1290
Resistance 1: Chf1.1210
Current price: Chf1.1105
Support 1: Chf1.1050
Support 2: Chf1.1000
Support 3: Chf1.0940
Comments: USD/CHF sustains losses. The nearest support is the area
yesterday's low on Chf1,1050 then losses of a rate can reach level
Chf1,1000 and further up to Chf1,0940. Strong resistance is in the
field of the punched channel line from July 22 on Chf1,1210. The high
of Friday Chf1,1290 is Above located. Stronger level is the maximum on
Sep 11 on Chf1,1420.
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| 16.09 07:23 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.8340
Resistance 2: $1.8130
Resistance 1: $1.7980
Current price: $1.7938
Support 1: $1.7900
Support 2: $1.7860
Support 3: $1.7640
Comments: The pair is consolidated in a range $1,7900/08. Intermediate
resistance is a session high on $1.7980. Further growth is possible to
high Sep 15 on $1,8130. The following purpose of growth - high Aug 29
on $1.8340. The nearest support is located in a session low on
$1.7980. Below loss can reach a level $1.7860 and further to punched
channel line since July 31 on $1.7640.
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| 16.09 07:01 |
Germany CPI (August) final -0,3%, Y/Y 3,1% |
| 16.09 06:59 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4550
Resistance 2: $1.4480
Resistance 1: $1.4280
Current price: $1.4210
Support 1: $1.4180
Support 2: $1.4080
Support 3: $1.4040
Comments: On Tuesday the dollar has slightly become stronger against
euro. Nearest level of support is area of a session low on $1.4180.
Then rate can will decrease to $1,4080 - a yesterday's low. Below loss
of euro can will increase to $1,4040 (high Sep 11, and lows Sep 5,8).
The nearest resistance is channel line on $1,4280, then yesterday's
session high on $1.4480, stronger level - $1.4550 (high Sep 4).
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| 16.09 06:43 |
Daily History for Sep 15, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.4483 1.4084 1.4274
USD/JPY 106.68 104.24 104.36
GBP/USD 1.8129 1.7764 1.7988
USD/CHF 1.1279 1.1058 1.1132
EUR/JPY 152.80 148.51 149.01
EUR/GBP 0.8005 0.7905 0.7933
GBP/JPY 191.97 188.28 187.74
GBP/CHF 2.0180 1.9936 2.0014
Change % Change Last
FTSE -212.50 -3.92% 5,204.20
DAX -170.73 -2.74% 6,064.16
CAC -163.69 -3.78% 4,168.97
Dow -503.99 -4.41% 10,918.00
NASDAQ -81.36 -3.60% 2,179.91
S&P -58.04 -4.64% 1,193.66
10yr Note -2.4700 -0.662% 3.483%
NYMEX Crude Oil -5.47 -5.41% 95.71
Gold +22.50 +2.94% 787.00
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| 16.09 06:21 |
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Sep 16, 2008
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes (Sep)
04:00 Japan Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (Aug) -44,5%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Households (Aug) 31,4
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence (Aug) 31,6
06:00 Germany HICP (August) final Y/Y 3,3% 3,5%
06:00 Germany CPI (August) final Y/Y 3,1% 3,3%
06:00 Germany CPI (August) final -0.3% 0.6%
07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q) 4,3%
07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (QoQ) (2Q) 0,0%
08:30 UK RPI-X (August) Y/Y 5,3%
08:30 UK Retail prices (August) Y/Y 5,0%
08:30 UK Retail prices (August) -0,1%
08:30 UK HICP ex EFAT (August) Y/Y 1,9%
08:30 UK HICP (August) Y/Y 4,4%
08:30 UK HICP (August) 0.0%
09:00 Е15 Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (August) Y/Y 1,7%
09:00 Е15 Harmonized CPI (August) final Y/Y 3,8% 4,0%
09:00 Е15 Harmonized CPI (August) final -0,2%
09:00 Germany ZEW economic expectations index (September) -55,5
12:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (August) Y/Y 2,5%
12:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (August) 0,2% 0,3%
12:30 USA CPI (August) Y/Y 5,6%
12:30 USA CPI (August) 0,0% 0,8%
13:00 USA TICS (July), bln 51,1
13:00 USA TICS long-term (July), bln 53,4
18:15 USA FOMC meeting announcement 2,00% 2,00%
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