| 13.06 18:46 |
FTA:
"Inflation, not slow growth, is the primary threat to the US economy.
The CPI is up 4.2% versus a year ago and up at a 4.9% annual rate in
the past three months. Some analysts continue to minimize the threat of
higher inflation by focusing on the core CPI, which excludes food and
energy prices and is up only 2.3% versus a year ago. Focusing on the
core makes sense when energy and food prices are volatile both up and
down. In that case, core inflation helps reveal the underlying trend.
But in the past six years almost all the volatility has been to the
upside. In this situation, focusing on the core hides the underlying
trend."
|
| 13.06 18:39 |
Dresdner Kleinwort:
"Consumer
sentiment is at a 28-year low, and inflation expectations are elevated,
but no worse than last month. In the horse race between slower demand
and rising inflation expectations, this report points to slower growth
as the more pressing concern."
|
| 13.06 18:26 |
GBP/USD rebounds
Pushed to fresh highs for the session atop $1.9500
area just ahead of the London close as earlier reported supply ahead of
the figure was handily absorbed and as overnight highs were easily
overcome amid thinning conditions. Further supply
|
| 13.06 18:04 |
EUR/USD regains its positions
Pressing to fresh highs for the US session as short-squeeze continues
ahead of the G8 meeting, traders not expecting too much from that event
but preferring to keep risk parameters to a minimum "just in case."
Euro overcomes any residual supply around $1.5350, trading to $1.5365
area but supply remains above, at $1.5380.
|
| 13.06 17:43 |
Dow +78.08 at 12219.66, Nasdaq +32.33 at 2436.68, S&P +9.29 at 1349.16
The stock market is currently up 0.7% this session, but down 0.8%
week-to-date. For the year, the stock market has declined roughly 8.1%.
Microsoft (MSFT 28.96, +0.72) remains the session's most influential
leader, though it is trading off its session high. Fellow tech
heavyweight Google (GOOG 571.88, +18.93) is also providing considerable
support.
|
| 13.06 17:13 |
American focus: Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in Three Years on Fed View
The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain versus the euro in three
years as traders bet the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs
this year and Irish voters may have rejected a European Union treaty.
The U.S. currency rose to a one-month high against the euro on bets
Group of Eight finance ministers meeting this weekend will signal they
favor a stronger dollar. The yen was poised for a fifth weekly drop
against the euro after the Bank of Japan left its target lending rate
at 0.5 percent, the lowest among industrialized nations.
``People will likely keep pricing in Fed rate hikes,'' said David
Powell, a currency strategist at Bank of America Corp. in New York.
``That will help the dollar.''
Fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 60 percent
chance the central bank will increase the 2 percent target lending rate
by at least a quarter-percentage point at its August meeting, compared
with 9 percent odds a week ago.
The 15-nation euro weakened as Irish opponents of a new European Union
treaty led as counting got under way in a referendum that may decide
whether the 27-nation bloc moves toward political unity.
``The rejection of the treaty undermines the EU's public legitimacy and
may influence public sentiment in countries contemplating joining the
euro zone,'' wrote Geoffrey Yu, a currency analyst at UBS AG, in a note
to clients today. ``This change may undermine the ECB's price stability
mandate in favor of a growth mandate.''
Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in May after a 0.2 percent increase
the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The
median forecast of 84 economists was for a
0.5 percent advance.
|
| 13.06 17:12 |
July crude oil continues to nurse losses on the day, is down about $2 at $134.60 |
| 13.06 16:45 |
Dow +116.84 at 12258.42, Nasdaq +40.29 at 2444.64, S&P +14.39 at 1354.26
Stocks are largely unchanged from earlier levels. Only the consumer
staples sector (-0.1%) is trading with a loss. Materials (+2.5%) are
currently leading the other economic sectors.
Leading movers in the materials sector include Freeport McMoRan (FCX
122.61, +5.14), Monsanto (MON 137.82, +2.89), and Dow component Alcoa
(AA 39.28, +1.54).
The CRB Commodity Index is trading at 445.3, unchanged for the session.
|
| 13.06 16:21 |
ECB'S WEBER sees 'considerable' risks to EMU medium-term price stability
--Risk of new rise in German inflation due to pay hikes --ECB in state of heightened alertness, made clear it is ready to act --Anchoring of inflation expectations must not be put at risk --EMU inflation to fall slowly below 3% in 2009 --Eurozone growth still solid, but downside risks prevail --EMU economic cycle to bottom out in 2008 --Germany economy to cool off considerably in spring and summer, cannot rule out negative GDP growth in 2Q
|
| 13.06 16:16 |
Ireland votes agains EU Lisbon Treaty, RTE TV. 53.4% no, 46.6% yes. |
| 13.06 15:49 |
Stocks in early rise
Investors shrug off jump in CPI and instead focus on deal making talk at the end of a tough week on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones industrial average, the broader Standard & Poor's
500 index and the Nasdaq composite all gained in the early going.
Consumer inflation up. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in May
after rising 0.2% in April, reflecting the spike in oil and gas prices
and bringing the annual rate to 4.2%. Economists thought it would rise
0.5%.
So-called "core" CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices,
rose 0.2% in the month, as expected, after rising 0.1% in April.
Yahoo-Google. Yahoo remained in focus Friday on news that it has partnered with Google on an online advertising deal.
Oil prices retreat: U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $1.13 to $135.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
|
| 13.06 15:26 |
Lehman on Consumer sentiment report
"Consumer sentiment continued to deteriorate in June amid soaring
gasoline prices, rising unemployment and falling home prices. Sentiment
fell to 56.7 in June from 59.8 in May, the lowest since the 1980
recession. A record number of respondents reported that their finances
had worsened in June, citing rising energy and food prices as the main
culprits. In addition to rising commodity prices, consumers are
struggling with a weaker labor market as only 19% reported income gains
(a record low)." This suggests downside risks to consumption, LEH says.
|
| 13.06 14:57 |
Dow +151.76 at 12293.34, Nasdaq +50.04 at 2454.39, S&P +17.70 at 1357.57
Stocks have extended their advance as all three of the major indices
are now sporting gains in excess of 1.0%. The Nasdaq continues to
boast the largest percentage gain, up 2.0%, helped by the likes of
Microsoft (MSFT 29.36, +1.12) and Intel (INTC 22.69, +0.64).
All ten of the major economic sectors are trading in the green, seven of which are up at least 1.0%.
Treasurys have regained some buying interest. The 10-year note is up 7 ticks and is now yielding 3.18%.
|
| 13.06 14:37 |
HFE about U-Mich consumer sentiment index
Ian Shepherdson, Chief U.S. Economist at HFE,
says “June Michigan sentiment index dropped to 56.7 from 59.8, below the consensus
and the lowest reading in 28 years. So the tax rebates made some people spend
but haven't made most people happier. Both expectations and current conditions
fell, both also at 28-year lows.”
|
| 13.06 14:18 |
ECB BONELLO: Ready to act to move rates in short term if need be
1.A rate hike would show we are determined to fight inflation 2.Current 4% interest rate not harming eurozone economy 3. Euro area not in danger of recession, unlike U.S. and U.K.
|
| 13.06 14:07 |
EUR/USD tries to rebound
EUR/USD pops up to $1.5330 from around
$1.5320/25 as Michigan Sentiment comes in below median forecasts of
60.0.
|
| 13.06 13:55 |
US: Jun prelim U-Mich consumer sentiment index, 56.7 |
| 13.06 13:45 |
Median estimate on Jun prelim U-Mich consumer sent: 60.0 versus 59.8 |
| 13.06 13:35 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut
EUR/USD: $1.5400, $1.5700 USD/JPY: Y105.00 AUS/USD: $0.9450, $0.9400 Tokyo cut USD/CAD: C$1.0180
|
| 13.06 13:22 |
Before the bell: Futures rise following inflation report
Stock futures rose
early Friday. Before the bell, the government's Consumer Price
Index rose 4.2% through the 12 months ended in May, according to the Labor
Department. This compared to an increase of 3.9% during the 12 months ended in
April. For the month of May, overall CPI
rose 0.6%, compared to an increase of 0.2% in April. A consensus of
analysts had projected an increase of 0.5% for May. The core CPI, which
excludes the cost of food and energy, rose 0.2% in May, compared to an increase
of 0.1% in April. Companies to watch: Yahoo announced late Thursday an
online ad partnership with Google. Yahoo said it believes the ad deal would be
better than selling its search business to Microsoft. Shares of Wall Street investment house Lehman
Brothers slipped Thursday after the brokerage announced a management shakeup in
the wake of a $2.8 billion loss disclosed earlier in the week. Oil prices retreated. U.S. crude for July delivery fell
$1.16 to $135.59 a barrel.
|
| 13.06 13:10 |
ECB, GONZALEZ PAREMO: July rate hike possible, but not certain
1.In a state of heightened alert on inflation 2.Markets should be clear about July rates 3.Irish "no" vote to EU Treaty will not affect ECB monetary policy 4.Inflation expectations on the rise
|
| 13.06 12:58 |
CMC Markets on dollar
Ashraf Laidi,
chief currency analyst at CMC Markets: “Euro remains
pressured near the lows after the US retail sales figures and their
upward revisions are boosting the dollar across the board. Although the
increased probability of an autumn Fed hike according to Fed funds futures is
expected to bolster the greenback, we warn traders that positive US data
have not always led to sharp losses in EUR. This time may be different,
however, as these figures bolster the case made by the Fed that chances of a
substantial decline in US
growth have dissipated.”
|
| 13.06 12:49 |
Reaction on news
CPI report came in better-than-expected. EUR/USD
still under pressure at $1.5320, GBP/USD on $1.9419, USD/JPY on Y108.25.
|
| 13.06 12:35 |
US: May core CPI, +0.2% m/m |
| 13.06 12:34 |
US: May CPI, +0.6% m/m |
| 13.06 12:26 |
European session: Dollar heads for biggest weekly gain in three years before G-8 [M]
The following data
were issued 06:00GermanyCPI (May) final 0.6% 0.6%
0.6% 06:00GermanyCPI (May) final Y/Y 3.0%
3.0% 3.0% 06:00GermanyHICP (May) final Y/Y 3.1%
3.0% 3.0% 08:00ItalyCPI (May) final0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 08:00ItalyCPI (May) final Y/Y 3.6%
3.6% 3.6% 08:00ItalyHICP (May) final Y/Y 3.7%
3.7% 3.7% 09:00EU(15)Labour cost index (Q1) Y/Y
3.3% - 2.9%
The dollar headed for
its biggest weekly gain in more than three years against the euro on speculation officials from the
Group of Eight nations meeting on the weekend will signal they favor a stronger
U.S.
currency. The euro also fell on concern voters in Ireland
will reject the European Union's new governing treaty designed to boost the
strength of the 27-nation bloc. The dollar was poised
for the largest weekly advance versus the yen since 2004 before a government report that may
show U.S.
inflation accelerated, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to raise interest
rates. The yen still headed for its fifth weekly
decline versus the euro, the longest losing streak since October, after the Bank of Japan
concluded a two-day policy meeting in Tokyo by leaving its the key overnight
rate at 0.5%. The U.S.
currency rebounded from a six-week low versus the euro on June 9 after Paulson
said that he would ``never'' rule out currency intervention. The dollar
has fallen 13% against the euro in the past year as the Fed lowered its
benchmark rate.
EUR/USD weakened from $1.5443 to session
lows on $1.5310 before rebounding a bit to $1.5334. Bids on $1.5300,
$1.5285/80, options at $1.5250. GBP/USD opened at $1.9468. Rateheldwithintherange$1.9430/80. Bids
at $1.9430, $1.9410. Offers on $1.9485/00, $1.9520/25. USD/JPY rose from Y107.65 to Y108.40. Offers
on Y108.40/50 with stо ps above.
At 12:30 GMT CPI report will be released with
analysts predict consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.5% last month after a
0.2% increase in April.
|
| 13.06 11:58 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut,
EUR/USD: $1.5400, $1.5700 USD/JPY: Y105.00 AUS/USD: $0.9450, $0.9400 Tokyo cut USD/CAD: C$1.0180
|
| 13.06 11:44 |
Insight Economics:
"Initial claims, which are a good indicator of layoff activity, jumped in the most recent week and is now above its year-to-date average. The 4-week average appears to be settling in at around 370k, about 45k higher than its average in 2007. Continuing claims, which are inversely related to job creation, surged this week to its highest level in more than 4 years. More importantly, continuing claims have been on a rising trend for nearly 2 years, an indication that hiring has weakened." Also, "Imported goods prices surged again in May for the third consecutive month, in large part because energy prices continued to soar. However, non-fuel imported goods prices are also accelerating and contributing significantly to higher imported inflation."
|
| 13.06 11:31 |
Lehman on US data
"We expect the rebate to boost spending over the next few months. But we expect it to be temporary, acting like a shot of caffeine by boosting growth in Q3 but pushing growth to negative territory in Q4 as the caffeine kick fades."
|
| 13.06 11:15 |
European focus: Euro under pressure ahead of G8 meeting [M]
The euro remained under pressure ahead of the weekend meeting of G8 finance ministers in Japan. Market players keen to see
whether the group will back the United
States' efforts to strengthen the dollar.
Recent talk from Treasury secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve
ratesetters has signalled the U.S.
is determined for the greenback to appreciate to bring import price inflation
under control.
Japanese finance minister Fukushiro Nukaga
has hinted foreign exchange issues will be high on the weekend's agenda,
although analysts are doubtful ministers would go as far as to sanction
intervention in the currency markets.
"We believe that there could be
stronger language on forex in the communique but it is likely to stop short of
indicating that intervention is likely, which could still be enough to boost
the dollar," said Mitul Kotecha, head of currency research at Calyon.
But ahead of the meeting focus is likely
to be on U.S.
inflation figures, both of which are expected to come in on the strong side.
The yen was lower
following the Bank of Japan's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.
The pound was weaker,
with investors still concerned about the prospect of stagflation in the UK and
uncertainty about which direction the next move in interest rates will be.
|
| 13.06 10:41 |
USD/JPY challenges Y108.30
USD/JPY challenges strong tech
resistance at the 200-day moving average now under pressure (Y108.28). Stops
noted through Y108.30, with offers then coming in up to Y108.50 and further
stops above.
|
| 13.06 10:33 |
EUR/GBP still under pressure
EUR/GBP drops below stg0.7900 to the
lows around stg0.7870. Bids remain on stg0.7870/65. Below here and rate can
ease on toward stg0.7855/50. Offers now seen placed at stg0.7900.
|
| 13.06 10:19 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y110.00 Resistance 2: Y108.60 Resistance 1: Y108.30 Current price: Y108.16 Support 1: Y107.60 Support 2: Y106.50 Support 3: Y106.20 Comments: Dollar advances. The nearest resistance is Y108.30 (session high), strong level is also on Y108.60 (Feb highs). Higher level comes January 10 peak at Y110.00/10. The nearest support is Y107.60, then comes yesterday's low at Y106.50 with further sales possibly extending till Y106.20 and Y105.60.
|
| 13.06 10:03 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0620 Resistance 2: Chf1.0580 Resistance 1: Chf1.0520 Current price: Chf1.0490 Support 1: Chf1.0440 Support 2: Chf1.0380 Support 3: Chf0.0300 Comments: Dollar goes upside. The nearest resistance lies on session high on Chf1.0520. Break above will open the way to Friday’s highs on Chf1.0580. Next band of resistance is near Chf1.0620 (May 08 high). Support is around hourly low at Chf1.0440, then – at session low on Chf1.0380. Under that level the losses may extend to Chf1.0300.
|
| 13.06 09:43 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.9750 Resistance 2: $1.9660 Resistance 1: $1.9520 Current price: $1.9466 Support 1: $1.9430 Support 2: $1.9400 Support 3: $1.9360 Comments: Cable tries to rebound. The nearest support is yesterday's low on $1.9430. Below losses may widen to $1.9400 and $1.9360 (May lows). Resistance comes near broken support at $1.9520. Stronger level comes at June 11 peaks on $1.9750, then – June 10 peaks on $1.9750.
|
| 13.06 09:26 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.5820 Resistance 2: $1.5600 Resistance 1: $1.5480 Current price: $1.5385 Support 1: $1.5360 Support 2: $1.5320 Support 3: $1.5280 Comments: Euro still under pressure, getting close to $1.5360 (Jun 05 low). Break above will open the way to $1.5320 and then – to $1.5280. Resistance comes around session highs on $1.5480, then – at Thursday’s high on $1.5590/00. Stronger level comes at $1.5820.
|
| 13.06 09:13 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1400GMT cut
EUR/USD: $1.5400, $1.5700 USD/JPY: Y105.00 AUS/USD: $0.9450, $0.9400 Tokyo cut USD/CAD: C$1.0180
|
| 13.06 09:00 |
EU: Labor costs in 1Q rose at the fastest pace in nearly five years, up 3.3% on the year in 1Q after +2.9% in 4Q (revised up from +2.7%). |
| 13.06 08:58 |
ML says its 2Q real GDP bean count goes to +0.3% at an annual rate from -0.4% prior |
| 13.06 08:41 |
European bourses trade negative:
European equity bourses are lower Friday, with CAC-40 and FTSE-100
leading the move. GlaxoSmithKline and BP are main decliners on
FTSE-100, whilst EDF and Suez are leading CAC-40 lower. Airlines are
lower following rise in crude oil prices, with easyJet lower after
suffering downgrade to "sell" from "buy" from Goldman Sachs, along with
cut in price target to 223 from 420. However banking stocks are higher
with HBOS up on plans to raise Stg4bln through a rights issue. Alliance
& Leicester is up ahead of its pending regulation to FTSE-250. In
addition, talk that UBS has received a 99% take up for shares in its
$15.3bn rights issue has also helped lift sentiment in banking stocks.
CAC-40 is down 43pts (-0.92%), Xetra-DAX is down 45pts (-0.67%) and
FTSE-100 is down 48pts (-0.84%).
|
| 13.06 08:29 |
Forex: Thursday results
The dollar strengthened to a one- week high against the euro Thursday as U.S.
retail sales advanced in May more than economists forecast, raising
speculation the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs this
year. U.S. retail sales
increased 1 percent in May as Americans used their tax rebates to shop,
the Commerce Department reported. That followed a revised 0.4 percent
advance the prior month. The median forecast of 82 surveyed economists
was for a 0.5 percent increase. Traders
bet Fed policy makers are more likely to raise borrowing costs in
August. Fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 60
percent probability the central bank will increase the target lending
rate by at least a quarter- percentage point, compared with a 7 percent
chance a week ago. The U.S. currency was supported by
speculation that finance ministers from the Group of Eight countries
might make comments discouraging the currency's decline at two days of
meetings in Osaka, Japan, this weekend. G-8 officials
will urge emerging nations to stop subsidizing oil consumption and
press regulators, notably in the U.S., to look into the trading that
has driven crude oil to a record, said French Finance Minister
Christine Lagarde.
EUR/USD fell from $1.5560 to $1.5380. Later rebound followed till $1.5450.
GBP/USD
sunk from $1.9635 to $1.9435 rebounding further to $1.9470.
USD/JPY rose from Y106.80 to Y108.06.
Eurozone
data at 0900GMT sees Q1 employment data and Q1 labor costs,which are
seen rising 2.9%. US data starts at 1230GMT, when CPI is expected to
rise 0.5% in May, as energy prices are expected rebound after the
seasonally adjusted decline in the previous month. Food prices are
forecast to be more modest in the month after posting the largest
monthly gain in 18 years. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in the
month after the very tame 0.1% reading in April. US data concludes at
1355GMT when the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Index is expected to rise very modestly to 60.0 in early-June.
|
| 13.06 08:27 |
Stock market: Thursday results
closing Nikkei -294.88 -2.1% 13,888.60
Topix -26.89 -1.9% 1,363.14
FTSE +67.20 +1.17% 5,790.50
DAX +64.26 +0.97% 6,714.52
CAC +11.39 +0.24% 4,672.30
Dow -205.99 -1.68% 12,083.77
NASDAQ -54.93 -2.24% 2,394.01
S&P -22.95 -1.69% 1,335.49
10yr Note -0.2600 -0.063% 4.073%
NYMEX Crude Oil +5.07 +3.86% 136.38
Gold +11.70 +1.34% 882.90
Japan stock indexes fell the
most in three months, led by financial companies and commodity
producers, on concern surging inflation and credit turmoil will derail
growth. Mitsui O.S.K. fell 4.8%. Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan's largest shipping line, lost 4.6%. JFE Holdings Inc shares fell 6,7% after PBOC increased interest rate spurring expectations demand from China may lower. Japan Tobacco Inc, fell 5,3% on talks of higher taxes for tobacco industry. Kyocera Corp rose 2.9% after JPMorgan Chase and Co. upgraded shares to
«overweight».
European stocks rose for the first time in seven days
after InBev NV offered a record $46.3 billion in cash for
Anheuser-Busch Cos. and banks rebounded from their cheapest in two
months. InBev rallied the most in three months after saying it has ``strong support'' from lenders to finance the bid. Premiere AG, Germany's biggest pay-television company, and Banco Popular Espanol SA climbed on speculation they were takeover targets. Commerzbank AG rebounded from its lowest close since March, while HBOS Plc rallied after its steepest one-day drop in three months. Vedanta Resources Plc led a recovery in mining companies after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended the stock. Vedanta
advanced the most in three weeks after Goldman upgraded the shares to
``buy'' from ``neutral,'' saying the recent decline in the share price
provides ``an opportunity for investors.'' Royal Bank of Scotland Plc,
the second biggest U.K. bank, led the industry higher as a measure for
European banks showed the stocks closed yesterday at their cheapest
since April. BASF AG, the world's
largest chemical company, climbed after Societe Generale SA lifted its
recommendation on the shares. Siemens AG rose the most in almost a
month after Chief Executive Officer Peter Loescher said the company is
``on a good way'' to reach its earnings targets. Commerzbank surged 1.19%. Allianz added
1.5%. Germany's second-largest bank and Dresdner Bank are inspecting
each others' books in preparation for possible merger talks,
Handelsblatt said, citing unidentified people from the industry. Siemens, Europe's largest engineering company, climbed 2.5%, the biggest increase since April 30.Infineon Technologies AG,
Europe's second-largest maker of semiconductors, jumped 5.5%. Elpida
Memory Inc. would consider taking a stake or a complete acquisition of
Infineon's memory-chip unit Qimonda AG, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
reported.
US stock indexes climbed as retail sales
increased more than forecast and banks rose from a five-year
low, outweighing speculation the Federal Reserve will boost
interest rates as bond yields climbed the most since April. The government reported increases to retail sales as well as weekly jobless claims. Retail
sales increased 1% in May, compared to an expected increase of 0.5%
from analyst expectations. Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas,
rose 1.2% in May, compared to expectations of a 0.7% increase. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. advanced after tax rebate checks pushed retail sales in May to twice the rate economists estimated. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. gained after Morgan Stanley advised investors to buy financial companies. Corporate news: Battered mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) swung to a first-quarter loss of $3.31 billion. The company blamed the loss on delinquent loans. Citigroup said
it plans to close down its hedge fund Old Lane Partners. Citi paid more
than $800 million last year for the fund that was co-founded by CEO
Vikram Pandit. Starbucks said it entered a deal with European beverage vender SSP to open more than 150 Starbucks stores in Europe
The troubled financial firm Lehman Brothers said
it was replacing two top executives, including its chief financial officer,
just days after announcing a massive $2.8 billion quarterly loss. Lehman stock
fell about 5%.
|
| 13.06 08:15 |
Asian session: dollar is this weeks winner
The
dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost three years against
the euro on speculation officials from the Group of Eight nations will
signal they favor a stronger U.S. currency. The currency
was also poised for the biggest weekly advance since 2004 versus the
yen before a government report that will probably show U.S. inflation
accelerated, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to raise
interest rates. The dollar's gains are ``very satisfying,'' French
Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters in Osaka, before
meeting her counterparts today and tomorrow. Treasury Secretary Henry
Paulson this week signaled the U.S. may buy its own currency. The
yen headed for its fifth weekly decline versus the euro, the longest
losing streak since October, after the Bank of Japan concluded a
two-day policy meeting in Tokyo at which it left the key overnight
lending rate at 0.5 percent. The Australian dollar headed for its
biggest weekly loss in almost three months and the New Zealand currency
was poised for a third weekly decline as traders added to bets the Fed
will raise rates.
EUR/USD retreated from $1.5460 to $1.5420. GBP/USD was bounded in $1.9450/80. USD/JPY traded within Y107.60/00.
Eurozone data at 0900GMT sees Q1 employment data and Q1 labor
costs,which are seen rising 2.9%. US data starts at 1230GMT, when CPI
is expected to rise 0.5% in May, as energy prices are expected rebound
after the seasonally adjusted decline in the previous month. Food
prices are forecast to be more modest in the month after posting the
largest monthly gain in 18 years. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in
the month after the very tame 0.1% reading in April. US data concludes
at 1355GMT when the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Index is expected to rise very modestly to 60.0 in early-June.
|
| 13.06 08:07 |
Japan stock market closing
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended the day higher, helped by an
afternoon rally. The benchmark nikkei 225 gained 85.13 points, or
0.61%, to stand at 3973.73. The broader-based TOPIX gained 8.43 points
to stand at 1371.57.
|
| 13.06 08:01 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y110.00Resistance 2: Y108.60
Resistance 1: Y108.30
Current price: Y108.01
Support 1: Y107.60
Support 2: Y106.50
Support 3: Y106.20
Comments: Dollar advances. The nearest resistance is Y108.30,
strong level is also on Y108.60 (Feb highs). Higher comes January 10
peak at Y110.00/10. The nearest support is Y107.60, than comes
yesterday's low at Y106.50 with further sales possibly extending till
Y106.20 and Y105.60.
|
| 13.06 07:48 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0620
Resistance 2: Chf1.0580
Resistance 1: Chf1.0490
Current price: Chf1.0451
Support 1: Chf1.0380 Support 2: Chf1.0300
Support 3: Chf0.0150
Comments: Dollar goes upside. The nearest resistance lies on Chf1.0490. Break
above will open the way to Friday’s highs on Chf1.0580. Next band of
resistance is near Chf1.0620 (May 08 high). Support is around session low at Chf1.0380. Under that level the losses may
extend to Chf1.0300 and then – to Monday’s low on Chf0.0150.
|
| 13.06 07:27 |
BOJ SHIRAKAWA: Global inflation risks intensifying
- Currencies should reflect economic fundamentals
- Downside risk for US economy still high
- Should not single out impact on forex when guiding monetary policy
- Desirable for economy to be strong, forex moves to reflect that
- Forex moves in a way to adjust economic imbalances
- Watching public inflation expectations closely
- See higher downside risk for domestic economy, upside risks to prices compared with April.
|
| 13.06 07:10 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.9750 Resistance 2: $1.9660 Resistance 1: $1.9520
Current price: $1.9440
Support 1: $1.9430
Support 2: $1.9400Support 3: $1.9360Comments:
Cable failed to rebound. The nearest support is yesterday's low on
$1.9430. Below losses may widen to $1.9400 and $1.9360(May lows).
Resistance comes near broken support at $1.9520. Stronger level comes
at June 11 peaks on $1.9750, then – June 10 peaks on $1.9750.
|
| 13.06 06:49 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.5820
Resistance 2: $1.5640
Resistance 1: $1.5590
Current price: $1.5424
Support 1: $1.5390
Support 2: $1.5360
Support 3: $1.5280
Comments:
Euro trades under pressure. Support comes at yesterday's low on
$1.5390 with further level comes at $1.5360 (Jun 05 low) and $1.5280.
Above $1.5590 the resistance is
around $1.5640. Stronger level comes near $1.5820.
|
| 13.06 06:29 |
Major European bourses are initially seen trading lower Friday, playing catch up with the late reversal in the US. UK FTSE down 34, the DAX down 34, the CAC down 22 and the Eurostoxx 50 down 20. |
| 13.06 06:13 |
Quaden said that eurozone inflation levels had reached "risky territory" and that the ECB had to act to keep inflationary expectations well anchored. |
| 13.06 06:12 |
ECB QUADEN: The time is ripe to consider a small interest rate hike, but the European Central Bank has not signalled a series of increases |
| 13.06 06:05 |
Comments from BOJ June Monthly Report say Japan economy slowing on high energy, material costs
- Japan economy to grow at slower pace for now, followed by moderate growth path.
- Downgrades view on exports, corporate profits.
- Exports continue to rise but at a slower pace.
- Corporate profits falling on worsening terms of trade.
- Recovery in housing investment seen coming to an end.
- Private sector credit demand rising moderately.
|
| 13.06 06:04 |
GERMANY: CPI on the other hand confirmed the flash estimates of +0.6% on the month and +3.0% on the year. |
| 13.06 06:02 |
Japan: Government downgrades economy assessment
The Cabinet Office has decided to downgrade its assessment of the
economy in its June report (due out Monday) for the first time in three
months, noting that exports are showing signs of deterioration and
corporate earnings are being squeezed by higher crude oil and materials
costs, the Nikkei reported. The government said in its March report
that "the economic recovery appears to be pausing." While retaining the
words "recovery" and "pausing," the June report will indicate that the
economic recovery is further decelerating, mainly in the corporate
sector.
|
| 13.06 06:02 |
GERMANY: The harmonized annual inflation rate was revised to +3.1% in May |
| 13.06 05:20 |
Daily History for June 12, 2008
High Low Close EUR/USD 1.5564, 1.5378, 1.5448 USD/JPY 108.05, 106.78, 107.87 GBP/USD 1.9642, 1.9432, 1.9454 USD/CHF 1.0487, 1.0301, 1.0404
EUR/JPY 166.74, 165.64, 166.67 EUR/GBP 0.7945, 0.7882, 0.7938 GBP/JPY 210.26, 209.51, 209.87 GBP/CHF 2.0394, 2.0220, 2.0242
Change % Change Last Nikkei -294.88 -2.1% 13,888.60 Topix -26.89 -1.9% 1,363.14 FTSE +67.20 +1.17% 5,790.50 DAX +64.26 +0.97% 6,714.52 CAC +11.39 +0.24% 4,672.30 Dow -205.99 -1.68% 12,083.77 NASDAQ -54.93 -2.24% 2,394.01 S&P -22.95 -1.69% 1,335.49 10yr Note -0.2600 -0.063% 4.073% NYMEX Crude Oil +5.07 +3.86% 136.38 Gold +11.70 +1.34% 882.90
|
| 13.06 05:04 |
Schedule for today, Friday, June 13, 2008
06:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report (June) 06:00 Germany CPI (May) final 0.6% 0.6% 06:00 Germany CPI (May) final Y/Y 3.0% 3.0% 06:00 Germany HICP (May) final Y/Y 3.0% 3.0% 12:30 US CPI (May) 0.4% 0.2% 12:30 US CPI (May) Y/Y 3.9% 12:30 US CPI excluding food and energy (May) Y/Y 2.3% 12:30 US CPI excluding food and energy (May) 0.2% 0.1% 14:00 US Michigan sentiment index (June) preliminary 59.8
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