Dow -78.24 at 11355.47, Nasdaq -6.58 at 2251.64, S&P -3.87 at 1245.18
12.09 19:22
ML chief economist David Rosenberg says Q3 growth "will be well below 1%. We expect growth should then contract at a 2% annual rate in the fourth quarter."
The dollar fell the most against the euro since March, pushing the
currency down from a one-year high, on reduced demand for the U.S.
currency as a haven.
The
euro, the Brazilian real and the pound advanced versus the yen as
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. negotiated with potential buyers,
encouraging investors to reduce bets against higher-yielding assets.
The dollar also declined versus the euro as traders increased
speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs by the
end of the year.
``The market has been moving toward unwinding some of the recent trends
as we move into the weekend,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency
strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``There's a lot of
uncertainty about where we will be Monday morning. The sell-off in the
dollar today is because people want to go home with their positions
flat over the weekend.''
The ICE's Dollar Index fell for the first time in three days, dropping
to 79.277. It touched 80.375 yesterday, the highest level since
September 2007, when the Federal Reserve began cutting the target
lending rate from 5.25 percent to 2 percent to stave off a recession.
The index, a gauge measuring the dollar against the currencies of six
U.S. trading partners, reached a low of 70.698 on March 17.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 40 percent chance the
Fed will cut its 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between
banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by December, compared with
35 percent odds yesterday and no chance a month ago. The Fed next meets
Sept. 16.
Sales at U.S. retailers fell 0.3 percent last month following a revised
0.5 percent drop in July, the Commerce Department reported today. The
median forecast of economists was for an increase of 0.2 percent.
Producer prices dropped 0.9 percent in August, the Labor Department
reported. The median forecast in a separate survey of economists was
for a 0.5 percent drop.
Crude oil for October delivery rose for the first time in four days, increasing 0.5 percent to $101.41 a barrel.
Today's drop in the dollar versus the euro pared its weekly gain to 0.6
percent. The yen has advanced 0.8 percent against Europe's currency and
0.2 percent versus the dollar.
12.09 18:10
Dow -98.19 at 11335.52, Nasdaq -13.42 at 2244.80, S&P -7.11 at 1241.94
After climbing to a session high, which equated to a 0.5% advance for
the S&P 500, stocks have faded. The S&P 500 has since been
chopping along the unchanged mark.
Gains are the most impressive among energy and materials. The two
sectors are up 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The two sectors have been
pressured in recent weeks as fears of a global economic slowdown take
hold. Both sectors fell to their lowest point of the year earlier this
week before buyers emerged.
Wall Street turns mixed as investors continue to worry about Lehman and
the financial sector, but opt to scoop up battered bank shares.
Stocks erased losses, turning mixed Friday morning as the financial
sector bounced back following a morning selloff on worries about Lehman
Brothers, AIG and Washington Mutual.
Higher oil prices gave a boost to energy stocks. With financials and
energy the second and third largest sectors in the S&P 500 - after
technology - the advance had a considerable impact on the broader
market.
AIG slumped an additional 20% as investors worried about the extent of
its bad mortgage bets and the likelihood of it reporting a steep loss
in the third quarter.
However, after sliding in the early going, a variety of other financial
shares bounced back, with the Philadelphia Bank index jumping 2%.
Lehman Brothers Late Thursday, reports surfaced that the troubled firm
is actively seeking a buyer for the entire company, with the assistance
of the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve. A deal could be
announced Sunday.
Lehman stock has plunged this week amid escalating fears about the
firm's solvency in the wake of steep losses tied to bad mortgage bets.
Seeking to cool fears, the company announced its third-quarter results
Wednesday, a week ahead of schedule.
Washington Mutual said late Thursday that its capital position and
credit outlook were stable. However, rating agencies Fitch and Moody's
both cut their credit ratings on the company after the news, and WaMu
shares fell 1% Friday morning.
Dow components Alcoa, Chevron and Exxon Mobil all gained.
The University of Michigan's initial reading on September consumer
confidence rose to 73.1 from 63 in late August, reflecting the impact
of falling commodity prices. Economists thought it would rise to 64, on
average.
In the bond market, Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the
benchmark 10-year note to 3.69% from 3.64% late Thursday. Prices and
yields move in opposite directions.
COMEX gold for December delivery rose $17.50 to $763 an ounce.
"+1.1% Jul business inventories had gains at all levels of production,
distribution, and sales. Because of the uncertain business outlook,
inventories still appear to be at least modestly overbuilt. However,
inventories are growing faster (so far) in Q3 than they did in Q2. Thus
inventories will cut less from Q3 growth."
12.09 16:14
Ike is still a category 2 hurricane, but could reach the coast as a category 3 major hurricane, says the National Hurricane Center. "On the forecast track....the center of Ike will be very near the upper Texas coast by late today or early Saturday", adds
12.09 15:51
Dow -81.33 at 11352.38, Nasdaq -17.58 at 2240.64, S&P -6.00 at 1243.05
GBP/USD moves above $1.7800 and extends move to
$1.7816, holding just shy of challenging next band of reported resistance
between $1.7820/25. Above here and rate can move on toward $1.7850.
EUR/GBP breaks under support at stg0.7940, but
seen meeting further demand placed around stg0.7935 (76.4% retrace of the
recovery from Thursday's low at stg0.7922 to this morning's Asian highs at
stg0.7978). Below here and rate can push back toward stg0.7920.
Stocks were poised for
a lower opening Friday as investors pondered the fate of Lehman Brothers and oil prices rose
as Hurricane Ike churned towards Texas.
On Thursday, the Dow climbed nearly 1.5% and the Nasdaq jumped 1.3% amid talk that
Lehman was shopping for potential suitors.
The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post
reported that the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve have been working
with Lehman to help solve its problems, including helping to find potential
buyers.
Lehman shares, which fell more than 40%
Thursday, were 12% lower in premarket trading.
Hurricane Ike continued to churn through the
Gulf of Mexico, where it's projected to smash into the Texas coast. Oil prices rose 75 cents a
barrel to $101.62 over concerns that the storm could threaten the offshore oil
and natural gas infrastructure.
Economy: Wholesale prices fell more than
expected in August due to the decline in energy prices. Producer prices fell
0.9%, more of a loss than the 0.5% decline expected by economists. Excluding
volatile food and energy prices, prices rose 0.2%, in line with forecasts. Retail
sales fell 0.3% in August, surprising economists who expected a 0.3% increase.
GBP/USD extends recovery off earlier pullback
lows around $1.7635 to $1.7700 after the release of weak US data. Offers extending to
$1.7710. A break above to open a move on toward earlier highs at $1.7738, with
offers noted between $1.7740/50.
09:00EU(15)Industrial production
(July) -0.3% -0.1% -0.2 (0.0)%
09:00EU(15)Industrial production
(July) Y/Y-1.7% -0.6% -0.8 (-0.5)%
The dollar and yen
weakened broadly on
Friday as hope that troubled U.S.
investment bank Lehman Brothers will be saved boosted equities and prompted
currency dealers to cash in on the currencies' recent strong rallies.
The liquidation of many long-term currency bets
over the last two months drove the dollar to a one-year high against a basket
of currencies on Thursday, the euro to a year-low under $1.40, and the yen to a
two-year high against the euro.
But the pullback on Friday comes as traders
across all markets eye developments surrounding embattled U.S. investment bank Lehman
Brothers.
Sources say the U.S. Federal Reserve and
Treasury are involved in talks with potential suitors for Lehman, which could
come to a conclusion this weekend.
This speculation fuelled a late rally on Wall
Street on Thursday.
The economic calendar Friday includes the
latest readings of U.S.
retail sales, producer prices and University
of Michigan consumer
sentiment.
On the economic front, U.S. data dominates on Friday. The
latest employment and trade figures released over the last week, however,
suggest the economy remains weak.
If the data are on the soft side, the euro
could bounce further and notch up a weekly close above the 100-week moving
average, which currently is $1.4128. This would represent a potentially key
bullish technical development -- the euro hasn't had a weekly close below the
100-week moving average for two and a half years.
Resistance 3: $1.7980 Resistance 2: $1.7850 Resistance 1: $1.7700 Current price: $1.7709 Support 1: $1.7540 Support 2: $1.7440 Support 3: $1.7250 Comments: GBP/USD rebounds within downward channel from Jul 31, limited today by $1.7120/$1.7700 (key support/resistance respectively). Support is around session lows on $1.7540. Below losses may widen to $1.7440 (Thursday’s low). Further decline may reach channel support line on $1.7120. Resistance comes at channel line $1.7700.
Resistance 3:$1.4220 Resistance 2: $1.4180 Resistance 1: $1.4130 Current price: $1.4093 Support 1: $1.3980 Support 2: $1.3850 Support 3: $1.3750 Comments: EUR/USD rabgebounds above recent lows, holding within the downward channel from Aug 04, limited today by $1.3750/$1.4310. Minor resistance is around session highs on $1.4130, then – on $1.4180 (Wednesday’s highs) and $1.4220/30 (Tuesday’s highs). Key support comes at $1.3850 (trend line from Jan 01, 2002) with a break under will fuel bearish momentum and open the way to $1.3750. Below losses may reach $1.3700.
EUR/USD rallies to $1.4120, triggering offers near $1.4100 ($1.4091 38.2%
$1.4430/1.3882). Above resistance comes at $1.4145/55, with
traders already talking about the 10 day moving average line hich comes
in today around $1.4250.
12.09 10:02
Е15: Eurozone industrial output in July -0.3% м/м; -1.7% y/y
12.09 10:00
Е15: Employment growth slowed to +0.2% in Q2, the lowest quarterly growth rate since Q3 2006
The
yen fell on speculation that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will find a
buyer, giving investors confidence to buy higher-yielding assets funded
in the Japanese currency. The yen snapped four days of gains against
the euro as any government-brokered takeover of the bank would help
support credit markets. U.S. officials, who are helping Lehman identify
potential acquirers, may announce a deal before Asian markets open on
Sept. 15, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. ``There's
likely to be a buyer somewhere for Lehman,'' said Lee Wai Tuck, a
currency strategist at Forecast Pte Ltd. in Singapore. ``Risk appetite
may improve a bit. The yen could be sold.''
EUR/USD having got support at $1.3985 after short consolidation rose sharply to $1.4100 area. GBP/USD from $1.7550 jumped up to $1.7720. USD/JPY gained from Y106.90 to Y107.80, before eased back to Y107.40.
Italian industrial production data for July is due at 0800GMT, before
the 0900GMT release of Eurozone Q2 employment and July industrial
production data. Employment is seen rising 0.1% q/q sa, 1.1% y/y, while
expectations are for a decline in IP data by -0.1% m/m, -0.6% y/y.
Nomura economist David Resler says FOMC will
not change rates on Sept 16 but will "note the expected moderation in
inflation appears to be underway." FOMC will stress the strains in mkts
and will not hike until late 2009.
Extending the day's highs as euro-yen breaks
back above Y151.00, dollar-yen now approaching reported offers in the
Y107.60/80 area. Stops now coming in on a break of Y107.95/108.00.
Resistance 3: Chf1.1550 Resistance 2: Chf1.1480
Resistance 1: Chf1.1400
Current price: Chf1.1353
Support 1: Chf1.1350 Support 2: Chf1.1200
Support 3: Chf1.1150
Comments: In
general, rate holds within the upward channel from Jul 16, limited
today by Chf1.1150/Chf1.1550 (key support/resistance respectively).
Support is around session low on Chf1.1350, then - at Tuesday’s low at
Chf1.1200/10. Below losses may widen to channel line at Chf1.1150.
Above Chf1.1400 resistance comes at Chf1.1480, then - near channel line
on Chf1.1550.
Resistance 3: Y109.70
Resistance 2: Y109.00
Resistance 1: Y108.00
Current price: Y107.33
Support 1: Y106.10 Support 2: Y105.80
Support 3: Y104.70
Comments:
Techs on USD/JPY hasn’t changed with resistance comes at Y108.00/10.
Above the recovery may extend Monday’s high on Y109.00/10. Support is
around yesterday’s low on Y106.10/05, further - at trend support line from
Mar 17 at Y105.80. Break under will open the way to Y104.70 (Jul 17
low).
Resistance 3:$1.4230
Resistance 2: $1.4180
Resistance 1: $1.4040
Current price: $1.4016
Support 1: $1.3840
Support 2: $1.3790 Support 3: $1.3720
Comments: EUR/USD recouped some losses, but remains within the downward channel from Aug 04,
limited today by $1.3790/$1.4230. Key support comes at $1.3840 (trend
line from Jan 01, 2002) with a break under will fuel bearish momentum
and open the way to $1.3790/00. Below losses may reach $1.3720. Minor
resistance is around session highs on $1.4040, then - on $1.4180
(Wednesday’s highs) and $1.4220/30 (Tuesday’s highs).
Resistance 3: $1.7850 Resistance 2: $1.7700
Resistance 1: $1.7600
Current price: $1.7600
Support 1: $1.7540
Support 2: $1.7450
Support 3: $1.7370
Comments: GBP/USD gained. Support is around session lows on $1.7540.
Below
losses may widen to resent low $1.7450 and $1.7370 (Apr 09, 2006
lows). Resistance comes at session high
on $1.7600, then - on $1.7680-$1.7710 (Thursday high and upper bound of
the channel respectively). Stronger level is around $1.7850.
04:30 Japan Industrial output (July) final 0.9% 0.9%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (July) final Y/Y 2.0% 2.0%
06:45 France CPI (August) unadjusted 0.1% -0.2%
06:45 France CPI (August) unadjusted Y/Y 3.3% 3.6%
06:45 France HICP (August) Y/Y 3.7% 4.0%
08:00 Italy Industrial production (July) adjusted - 0.1%
08:00 Italy Industrial production (July) Y/Y adjusted - -1.8%
09:00 EU(15) Industrial production (July) -0.1% 0.0%
09:00 EU(15) Industrial production (July) Y/Y -0.6% -0.5%
12:30 USA PPI (August) -0.3% 1.2%
12:30 USA PPI (August) Y/Y - 9.8%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (August) 0.2% 0.7%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (August) Y/Y - 3.5%
12:30 USA Retail sales (August) 0.2% -0.1%
12:30 USA Retail sales excluding auto (August) -0.1% 0.4%
13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (September) preliminary 64.2 63.0
14:00 USA Business inventories (July) 0.5% 0.7%
