|
|
| 10.10 19:49 |
US STOCkS:
Wonderful, earnings season really kicks off next week as well with
Intel on Tuesday, Abbott, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and various airlines
on Wednesday while CIT Group, Citigroup, Google, Merrill Lynch weigh in
on Thursday.
|
| 10.10 19:41 |
Credit Suisse: next week's US data should weaken
"Consumer
sentiment should plummet in October, both retail sales and industrial
production should post big declines in September, and housing starts
are likely to fall to a new cycle low in September. Inflation data
should ease. Both headline PPI and headline CPI inflation rates in
September should be further off recent peaks."
|
| 10.10 19:33 |
Dow -507.42 at 8073.18, Nasdaq -89.86 at 1556.38, S&P -60.94 at 848.98 |
| 10.10 18:49 |
NYSE media spokesperson confirms stock market will be open Monday. |
| 10.10 18:26 |
American focus: dollar gains ahead of G-7 summit. [M]
Europe's currency is on course for its second straight weekly decline
versus the dollar on speculation the credit crisis in Europe will
deepen, prompting the European Central Bank to cut interest rates
further. The bank lowered its main refinancing rate two days ago for
the first time in five years. The pound fell as much as 1.8 percent to
$1.6792, breaching $1.70 for the first time since November 2003. The yen headed for its biggest weekly gain in a decade against the dollar as the global stock- market rout prompted investors to sell higher-yielding assets and pay back low-cost loans in Japan.
The yen gained 20 percent this week to 65.27 versus the Australian
dollar, 15.1 percent to 59.17 against New Zealand's currency, known as
the kiwi, and 7 percent against the euro on speculation investors will
reverse trades in which they get funds in countries with low borrowing
costs and buy assets where returns are higher. Japan's 0.5 percent
target lending rate compares with 6 percent in Australia, 7.5 percent
in New Zealand and 3.75 percent in Europe. Japan's
currency was poised to rise the most versus the 15- nation euro in any
week since its debut in 1999 as the worst week ever for the Standard
&Poor's 500 Index discouraged carry trades. President George W.
Bush said the U.S. is working with global partners to solve the
financial crisis as Group of Seven finance ministers and central
bankers met in Washington. ``Investors are concerned it could get worse,'' said JensNordvig,
a currency strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.
``Clearly a lot of investors have only one goal, to preserve capital.''
The U.S. currency has dropped 5.2 percent against the yen this
week, the most since Oct. 9, 1998, when it plunged 14 percent as
investors shed risk and abandoned yen carry trades in the wake of the
collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP. Coordinated
interest-rate reductions by central banks in the U.S., Europe and Asia
in the past two days failed to revive lending among banks, putting
stocks on course for their worst week in 30 years. The cost of
borrowing in dollars in London for three months rose to 4.82 percent
today, the highest since December, the British Bankers' Association
said. Threatened by the worst economic outlook in a quarter-
century, G-7 officials arrived in Washington without a broad- based
strategy that investors were seeking. Among options is a proposal by
U.K. Chancellor Alistair Darling for nations to guarantee lending
between banks, a suggestion that U.S. Treasury Secretary HenryPaulson hasn't ruled out. ``I don't think this particular G-7 meeting will rewrite history,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. ``I'm not optimistic anything material will come out.'' Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will meet with counterparts from the G-7, which comprises Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K., the U.S. and Japan. Paulson
and top aides are still considering options on how to proceed with a
$700 billion bank bailout plan, including having the government acquire
preferred stock, two officials informed of the matter said. Friday's
session sees an early close for US markets ahead of the Columbus Day
holiday on Monday
|
| 10.10 17:43 |
BAS on US data
"The recent global weakening in economic activity,
declining commodity prices and stronger trade value of the dollar will
put downward pressure on import prices in the coming months."
|
| 10.10 17:19 |
Dow -421.43 at 8149.96, Nasdaq -71.50 at 1571.50, S&P -50.89 at 857.99
The U.S. stock market is posting sharp losses for the eighth
consecutive session as global economic fears sink markets worldwide.
Volatility has been extreme and volume has been heavy. The S&P 500 opened with a 7.7% loss, quickly rebounded to a gain of 1.0%, and then sank to its current loss of nearly 6%.
Global stock markets saw some of their worst sessions in decades. In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei fell 9.6%, China's CSI fell 4.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 9.6%. In Europe, London's FTSE fell 8.5%, Germany's DAX dropped 8.1% and France's CAC declined 7.7%.
Credit markets remain tight and uncertainty is high. The TED spread,
which is the difference between what banks charge each other for
three-month dollar loans (three-month Libor) and what the government
pays (three-month T-Bill) is up 29 basis points to 4.52%. For
comparison, the TED spread averaged 0.36% in 2006. Dollar Libor climbed across eight of the 15 terms, although the overnight rate did ease to 2.47% from 5.09%.
In corporate news, Morgan Stanley (MS 7.67, -4.78) and Goldman Sachs
(GS 76.57, -24.78) are getting hit especially hard after both of their
long-term credit ratings were put on review for a downgrade at Moody's.
Initial results show that Lehman Brothers bonds were priced at 9.75
cents on the dollar during an auction by credit default swap (CDS)
sellers, according to Creditfixings.com, an executor of credit
derivatives. This means that firms that sold Lehman credit default
swaps, which investors buy to protect against the default of a company,
will have to pay 90.25 cents on the dollar to the CDS holders --
resulting in steep losses for the CDS sellers.
In earnings news, General Electric (GE 18.84, -0.17) posted a
10% year-over-year drop in third quarter earnings per share to $0.45,
which met estimates. The company also said it is on track to meet its
full year guidance and will maintain its dividend for the full year.
Commodity prices (-4.2%) are plunging in conjunction with
stocks, as traders speculate a slowing global economy will impact
demand. Oil prices are down 7.7% to $80.00 per barrel.
All ten of the economic sectors are posting a loss, ranging from 3.0% to 11.5%. Energy stocks (-11.5%) are down the most due to the weakness in oil prices. The financial sector (-3.0%) is posting the smallest loss.
For the week, the S&P 500 is down 22.2% -- its largest weekly
percent loss ever. The index has fallen 46% from its October 2007
all-time high.
|
| 10.10 17:15 |
Goldman Sachs: S&P's and DJI's next targets
"Equity markets continue to weaken; S&P through 925-54 now focuses
on the 768 lows from 2002. DJI towards 7197; the worst monthly
performance in the Dow since the 1930s was Oct 87 at down 23.2% (we are
currently down 20.9%; Sept '31 was down 30.7%)."
|
| 10.10 16:55 |
Dow -433.13 at 8144.79, Nasdaq -68.39 at 1576.92, S&P -49.83 at 860.15
The S&P 500 appoaches is down more than 5% in broad-based weakness.
Trading volume is heavy -- 932 mln shares have already exchanged hands
on the NYSE. This marks the highest trading volume at this time since
Sept. 19, when the NYSE had its highest trading volume day on record on
news the Fed looking to create an entity to buy distressed assets from
financial firms.
In commodity trading, corn, down $0.30 or 6.9%, and soybean , down
$0.70 or 7.0%, futures hit limit down -- the maximum daily loss allowed
before trading is halted. The declines followed a USDA October
supply/demand report, which was mostly bearish for corn and soybeans in
the U.S.
|
| 10.10 16:53 |
BAS: "The net export gap will continue to shrink, helping to cushion the GDP impact of declining U.S. purchases. |
| 10.10 16:12 |
Dow -272.64 at 8305.24, Nasdaq -36.46 at 1607.88, S&P -30.79 at 879.14
Stocks go on the decline in roller coaster trade, with the S&P 500 down more than 3.0%.
Initial results show that Lehman Brothers bonds were priced at
9.75 cents on the dollar during a an auction by credit default swap
sellers, according to Creditfixings.com, an executer of credit
derivatives. This mean that firms that sold Lehman credit default
swaps, which investors buy to protect against the default of a company,
will have to pay 90.25 cents on the dollar to the CDS holders. The
pricing was lower than what LEH bonds were trading at, according to
reports.
The financial sector (+0.6%) continues to post a gain, but is well off its high.
Energy stocks (-9.2%) are posting the largest decline due to weakness in crude oil prices (-7.2% at $80.24). Chevron (CVX
58.46, -5.55) said yesterday after the close that it expects third
quarter downstream (refining) earnings to improve from the last
quarter, but upstream (production) earnings are expected to decline
from the previous quarter. In the second quarter, upstream accounted
for nearly all of the company's profit, as downstream actually lost
$734 million.
Chevron said third quarter earnings are expected to be higher than
second quarter earnings, which means there is room for some
disappointment, as Chevron's second quarter earnings per share were
$2.90 compared to the consensus estimate of $3.24.
|
| 10.10 16:05 |
EU JUNCKER: situation is worsening. |
| 10.10 15:55 |
Goldman Sachs on US stocks
"Equity markets continue to weaken; S&P through 925-54 now focuses
on the 768 lows from 2002. DJI towards 7197; the worst monthly
performance in the Dow since the 1930s was Oct 87 at down 23.2% (we are
currently down 20.9%; Sept '31 was down 30.7%)."
|
| 10.10 15:50 |
FED FUND FUTURES: Probability of a 50bps ease at or before the Oct FOMC is now nearing 75%. |
| 10.10 13:30 |
US: Sept U.S. import prices -3.0%, ex-oil -0.9%, ex-fuel -0.5%. |
| 10.10 13:19 |
European session: [M]
The dollar touched a
14-month high of $1.3444 per euro on Oct. 6 as the freeze in credit
markets and global stock losses boosted demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Banks' reluctance to lend to each other also caused a shortage of
dollars for funding, accelerating the currency's gain.
The euro headed for
a third weekly loss against the dollar and a second versus the yen on
speculation the credit crisis in Europe will deepen, prompting the
European Central Bank to cut interest rates. The bank two days ago
lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years.
The
currency has fallen 7.3 percent versus the yen this week, the most
since the euro's debut in 1999. ECB policy makers said yesterday they
expect the region's economic growth will remain weak for some time.
The yen rose against the dollar,
headed for its biggest weekly gain in a decade, on speculation a global
stock-market rout will prompt investors to pare holdings of
higher-yielding assets funded with the Japanese currency.
The yen
was on course for its largest weekly gain versus the euro as the Dow
Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225 Stock Average both fell below
9,000 for the first time since 2003.
EUR/USD failed to overcame
$1.3650 and ahead of US session start fell back to the session low at $1.3515/20.

GBP/USD having posted new 5-year low at $1.6784, cable corrected
to $1.7015. For the moment the pare trades at $1.6880. keeping
positive mood. Bids $1.6950/30, $1.6900. Offers $1.7020/25,
$1.7050.
USD/JPY trades within Y98.45- Y99.30 range.
Friday's
session sees an early close for US markets ahead of the Columbus Day
holiday on Monday, though the late European session isdominated by
central bank and finance minister appearances, given the G7 meetings in
Washington.
Group of Seven finance ministers
and central bankers meet today and tomorrow in Washington to discuss
financial turmoil that has wiped more than $8 trillion off the value of
global stocks this month and led to interest-rate cuts and bank
bailouts in most of the member nations.
At 12:30 GMT trade balance of the USA
and Canada will be published. Besides this day it is necessary to pay
attention to the publication of Import Price Index of the USA at 12:30
GMT and the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey at 14:00 GMT.
|
| 10.10 12:41 |
GBP/USD to extend correction
Cable extended gains to $1.7020, but reported stronger
sell interest positioned between $1.7020/25 able to cap ($1.7025 76.4%
$1.7100/1.6781). Rate currently trades back around $1.6985. Bids seen
placed at $1.6960/50, more toward $1.6930.
|
| 10.10 12:12 |
CANADA: Sep employment +106.9k (Aug +15.2k)
- Sep unemployment 6.1% (Aug 6.1%)
|
| 10.10 12:11 |
European focus:
The yen headed for its biggest weekly gain in a decade against the
dollar as the global stock- market rout caused investors to sell
higher-yielding assets funded with the Japanese currency.
The yen was also on course to rise versus the euro by the most in any
week since the common currency's debut as Germany's DAX Index tumbled
more than 10 percent and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average had its
biggest drop on record. Group of Seven finance ministers and central
bankers meet today in Washington to discuss a crisis that has wiped
more than $8 trillion off the value of global stocks this month and led
to interest-rate cuts and bank bailouts in most of the member nations.
``Fear has gone through the roof with equity market volatility trading
the highs,'' said Jeremy Stretch, senior strategist in London at
Rabobank International. ``That kind of environment is seeing investors
flee for safety and so we have seen the yen holding up remarkably well.
Risk aversion continues to be the name of the game.''
Coordinated interest-rate reductions by central banks in the U.S.,
Europe and Asia in the past two days failed to revive lending among
banks, putting stocks on course for their worst week in 30 years. The
London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month loans rose to
4.75 percent yesterday, the highest level since Dec. 28.
``Global financial stability risks remain acute and questions are
mounting about the follow-on effects to global growth prospects,''
wrote Ron Leven, currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York, in
a research note yesterday. ``We are short dollar-yen, euro-yen and
pound-yen.''
The euro headed for a second weekly loss against both the dollar and
the yen on speculation the credit crisis in Europe will deepen,
prompting the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. The bank
lowered its benchmark rate two days ago for the first time in five
years.
The currency has fallen 7.3 percent versus the yen this week, the most
since the euro's debut in 1999. ECB policy makers said yesterday they
expect the region's economic growth will remain weak for some time.
``Right now, financial institutions in Europe appear to be in
trouble,'' said Hiroshi Yoshida, a foreign-exchange trader in Tokyo at
Shinkin Central Bank, Japan's fifth-largest publicly traded lender by
assets. ``The ECB may reduce rates further. The euro is likely to
retest the downside.''
The odds of a rate cut at the ECB's next policy meeting on Nov. 6 were
90 percent today, according to a Credit Suisse Group derivatives index.
|
| 10.10 11:49 |
General Electric has announced its Q3 earnings this morning reporting earnings of $4.5 bln or an EPS of 45c per share as expected. |
| 10.10 11:32 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y101.50 Resistance 2: Y101.00 Resistance 1: Y99.80 Current price: Y98.94 Support 1: Y98.50 Support 2: Y97.90 Support 3: Y95.75
Comments:
The yen rose against the dollar, headed for its biggest weekly gain in
a decade, on speculation a global stock-market rout will prompt
investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with the
Japanese currency. The yen was on course for its largest weekly gain
versus the euro as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225
Stock Average both fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003. The
Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled as much as 11 percent and the Dow
plunged 7.3 percent yesterday. At present as the nearest level of
support acts Y98,50 (Oct 8 low), further is located a level a session
low on Y97,90, which successful overcoming to Y95,75 (March 17low). At
continuation of growth area level Y99,80 will be the nearest resistance
(session high, and also a level 23,6% FIBO falling Y106,15-Y97,90).
Above is possible return to Y101,00 and Y101,50 (38,2 % FIBO and area
of a yesterday's high accordingly).
|
| 10.10 11:19 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1500 Resistance 2: Chf1.1440 Resistance 1: Chf1.1315 Current price: Chf1.1195 Support 1: Chf1.1140 Support 2: Chf1.1085 Support 3: Chf1.0900 Comments:
The dollar has decreased against franc. As the nearest resistance acts
the area of session high Chf1,1315. Above is possible growth to
Chf1,1440 and further to Chf1,1500 (Monday's high). The nearest support
- area of a session low on Chf 1,1180 which overcoming will open road
to Chf1,1140 and further to Chf1,1085.
|
| 10.10 11:07 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.7380 Resistance 2: $1.7250 Resistance 1: $1.7050 Current price: $1.6993 Support 1: $1.6780 Support 2: $1.6540 Support 3: $1.5750 Comments:
The dollar rose as the freeze in credit markets and global stock losses
boosted demand for U.S. Treasuries. Banks' reluctance to lend to each
other also caused a shortage of dollars for funding, accelerating the
currency's gain.
Having
cleared past November 2005 low $1.7050 the pare tested the lower bound
of the declining channel from September 25. Support formed at $1.6780.
Further down November-October 2003 lows zone $1.6560-$1.6510 looks
like possible target. Resistance comes at former support
$1.7050. Stronger one spotted at upper bound of the sloping channel
near $1.7250 and last session high $1.7380.
|
| 10.10 10:28 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.3980
Resistance 2: $1.3780
Resistance 1: $1.3740
Current price: $1.3579
Support 1: $1.3500
Support 2: $1.3445
Support 3: $1.3360
Comments:The
euro headed for a third weekly loss against the dollar and a second
versus the yen on speculation the credit crisis in Europe will deepen,
prompting the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. As the
nearest support acts the area of a session low on $1,3500, further is
located a low of Monday on $1,3445, after overcoming the given level
probably falling to $1,3360 (Aug 2007 low). In case of restoration by
the nearest resistance there will be an area $1,3740 (area of Oct 2 low
and Okt 7-8 high). Further is Fibo on $1,3780 (23.6 % of decrease
$1,4870-$ 1,3440) and $1,3980 (38,2 %).
|
| 10.10 09:00 |
Asian session: [M]
The yen rose against the dollar, headed for its biggest weekly
gain in a decade, on speculation a global stock-market rout will prompt
investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with the
Japanese currency. The yen was on course for its largest weekly
gain versus the euro as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225
Stock Average both fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003.
Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers meet today and
tomorrow in Washington to discuss financial turmoil that has wiped more
than $8 trillion off the value of global stocks this month and led to
interest-rate cuts and bank bailouts in most of the member nations. The
yen has surged 28 percent versus the Australian dollar, 20 percent
against New Zealand's currency and 11 percent against the euro this
month as investors pared so-called carry trades, in which investors get
funds in nations such as Japan that have low borrowing costs and buy
assets where returns are higher. Japan's benchmark rate is 0.5 percent,
compared with 6 percent in Australia and 7.5 percent in New Zealand. Coordinated
interest-rate reductions by central banks in the U.S., Europe and Asia
in the past two days failed to revive lending among banks. The London
interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month loans rose to 4.75
percent yesterday, the highest level since Dec. 28. The dollar touched a
14-month high of $1.3444 per euro on Oct. 6 as the freeze in credit
markets and global stock losses boosted demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Banks' reluctance to lend to each other also caused a shortage of
dollars for funding, accelerating the currency's gain. The euro headed for
a third weekly loss against the dollar and a second versus the yen on
speculation the credit crisis in Europe will deepen, prompting the
European Central Bank to cut interest rates. The bank two days ago
lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years. The
currency has fallen 7.3 percent versus the yen this week, the most
since the euro's debut in 1999. ECB policy makers said yesterday they
expect the region's economic growth will remain weak for some time.
EUR/USD having established a session low on $1,3504, the rate has sharply grown in area $1,3640. GBP/USD having reached a mark $1,6784, the pair has updated a 5-years low then it was corrected in area $1,6930. USD/JPY the pair continues to test resistance in the field of Y98,50 after earlier the rate has quickly decreased below mark Y98.00.
Friday's
session sees an early close for US markets ahead of the Columbus Day
holiday on Monday, though the late European session isdominated by
central bank and finance minister appearances, given the G7 meetings in
Washington. On Friday there will be data on employment for
September in Canada (11:00 GMT). At 12:30 GMT trade balanc of the USA
and Canada will be published. Besides this day it is necessary to pay
attention to the publication of Import Price Index of the USA at 12:30
GMT and the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey at 14:00 GMT.
|
| 10.10 08:52 |
JAPAN STOCKS:
Japan's benchmark stocks ended the day sharply lower, recording its
biggest percentage fall since the October 97 crash. Although off the
lows, the Nikkei 225 was down 881.06 points, or 9.62%, at 8276.43. The
Nikkei has now fallen over 30% in the last fortnight. The broader-based
TOPIX was down 62.47 points at 842.64.
|
| 10.10 08:46 |
CHINA STOCKS:
Chinese stocks ended the morning lower, although above recent lows. The
benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended the morning down 79.06 points
or 3.81 pct at 1,995.52. The index touched a low of 1,963.18 in the
morning session. The Shanghai A-share Index was down 82.81 points or
3.80 pct at 2,095.98, while the Shenzhen A-share Index fell 31.02
points or 5.25 pct to 560.10.
|
| 10.10 08:40 |
Stock market: Thursday summary
Most Japanese stocks advanced as central banks and governments
globally moved to shore up the financial system, spurring investors to
buy shares in Asia's cheapest market. Nomura Holdings Inc.
climbed 5 percent after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson indicated
he may buy stakes in banks, and nine central banks lowered interest
rates. Nintendo Co., which had lost more than half its value this year,
rallied 13 percent, its daily limit. Mitsubishi Corp. gained 5 percent,
after the Topix index became the only benchmark in Asia to fall below
book value, according to Bloomberg data. Aeon Co. plunged after weak
consumer demand eroded profit. About three stocks rose for every
two that fell on the Topix, which gained 6.10, or 0.7 percent, to
905.11 at the close of trading in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average
lost 45.83, or 0.5 percent, to 9,157.49. The Nikkei has lost 40
percent this year, on course for its worst year ever as the financial
crisis that started with non- performing U.S. subprime loans spread to
economies globally. More than $20 trillion has been erased from equity
markets worldwide in the last year. Yesterday, the Nikkei plunged
9.4 percent, its third- biggest drop on record, and the Topix index
slumped 8 percent, the steepest fall in 21 years. Shares on the Topix
traded below book value yesterday for the first time since Bloomberg
began tracking the data in 1989, indicating the liquidation value of
assets is greater than the company's ongoing business. Banks
gained after the Federal Reserve led four other central banks in a
coordinated rate cut to bolster confidence in the financial system.
Nomura, the nation's largest brokerage, added 5 percent to 1,229 yen.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., the country's third-biggest
listed bank, gained 7.5 percent to 601,000 yen. The Fed, European
Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden's Riksbank
each reduced their benchmark rates by half a percentage point. China's
central bank separately cut its key rate 0.27 percentage point. South
Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan also lowered rates today. Paulson said
yesterday he intends to use the authority granted in a rescue package
last week to purchase more than just mortgage-related assets from
financial companies. He indicated that such moves may include cash
infusions to boost lenders' capital. Nintendo, Japan's
second-largest video-game maker, soared by its daily limit of 4,000
yen, or 13 percent, to 35,000. The shares fell 11 percent yesterday.
Mitsubishi Corp., which generates more than half its profit from
commodities dealing, rose 5 percent to 1,667 yen, after retreating 12
percent yesterday. Sony Corp., the world's second-biggest consumer
electronics maker, rallied 5.7 percent to 2,520 yen. The average
price-to-book ratio for Topix companies dropped to 0.98 yesterday.
That's the lowest since the Topix became a market
capitalization-weighted gauge in 1968, according to Mizuho Securities
Co. If book value is less than one, shareholders theoretically would
profit if a company dissolved and liquidated its assets. Mitsubishi
Corp.'s book value slumped to 0.89 yesterday, while Sony's fell to
0.69. Aeon, the nation's second-largest retailer, fell 11 percent
to 850 yen, the biggest slide in more than 10 years, after reporting an
8.6 percent drop in second-quarter operating profit. Larger rival Seven
& I Holdings Co. plunged 8.4 percent to 2,410 yen.
European
stocks fell for a fourth day, sending the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to
the lowest in almost five years, on concern efforts by central banks
and governments to shore up the banking system won't prevent a global
recession. E.ON AG led declines among utilities, dropping 11
percent on speculation ``problems'' in the integration of a 4.6
billion-euro ($6.3 billion) Russian acquisition could hamper growth and
as Belgium proposed power price regulation. GDF Suez SA slid 13
percent. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA retreated more than 3
percent as oil dropped below $87 a barrel. Central banks from
London and Frankfurt to Washington and Hong Kong were forced to reduce
interest rates this week after the yearlong credit-market seizure
stoked concern banks will run short of money. The cost of
borrowing in dollars for three months jumped to the highest level since
December, the British Bankers' Association said today. Iceland suspended equity trading today until Oct. 13 after the government seized Kaupthing hf, the country's biggest bank. The
European Central Bank offered banks as much cash as they need for six
days, bringing forward new auction measures as policy makers step up
efforts to unlock credit markets. National benchmark indexes
decreased in 12 of the 17 western European markets that were open.
Germany's DAX fell 2.5 percent. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 lost 1.2 percent,
while France's CAC 40 retreated 1.6 percent. E.ON, Germany's
largest utility, slumped 11 percent to 28.25 euros. GDF Suez, the
world's second-biggest utility, sank 13 percent to 26.25 euros. E.ON
is having ``serious'' problems integrating its Russian unit, OAO OGK-4,
and is replacing several management figures, Handelsblatt reported
today, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Basic-resources
shares were the best performer in the Stoxx 600, adding 5.1 percent as
a group. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, climbed
6.5 percent to 1,036 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest, climbed
4.7 percent to 2,750 pence. Copper, lead and zinc gained in London. Royal
Bank of Scotland Group Plc rallied 5.8 percent to 96 pence after
Citigroup Inc. upgraded shares of U.K. banks to ``neutral'' from
``underweight,'' citing ``underperformance'' and actions by central
banks and the government yesterday. RBS is down 48 percent this week. Aviva
Plc climbed 5.9 percent to 434 pence after the U.K.'s biggest insurer
said it has a ``strong'' capital position following the turmoil in
global financial markets. The insurer has surplus capital to meet
regulatory requirements of 1.9 billion pounds, the company said.
Stocks
finished the session near their lows Thursday, despite beginning the
trading day with healthy gains. A late-session sell-off took the Dow to
its lowest level in more than five years and a long-time Dow component
to its worst point since 1950. Trading was upbeat early on when
tech bellwether IBM (IBM 89.00, -1.55) preannounced a third quarter
earnings surprise, central banks in the Far East cut interest rates,
and investors assessed comments from the Treasury may inject capital
directly into banks. Dow component IBM gave investors some temporary
reassurance that the tech sector hasn't turned over this morning. It
stated that that third quarter earnings would total $2.05 per share,
which is more than analysts were expecting. On the downside, the
company did fall short of the consensus revenue forecast, but stated it
remains confident it will hit its full-year earnings forecast of $8.75
per share. Tech posted a gain for much of the session, but finished 3.4% lower. Central
banks in South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan all moved to cut target
interest rates, according to Financial Times. The move came just one
day after the Federal Reserve and several other major central banks
slashed interest rates in a coordinated effort to mitigate economic
risks. Despite the plan's intent to help shore up balance sheets at
financial companies, the sector was hit with heavy selling pressure. It
was up 3.6% early on, but closed 11.7% lower as every one of its
industry groups floundered. Losses were most significant among regional
banks (-15.2%), investment banks and brokers (-15.7%), and insurance
companies (-16.8%). Part of the ongoing efforts to shore up the
financial system have the New York Fed entering into an agreement with
subsidiaries of AIG (AIG 2.39, -0.80). Their agreement calls for the
subsidiaries to exchange investment grade fixed income securities for
up to $37.8 billion in cash. The energy sector (-11.4%) also posted
deep losses. The downturn is generally owed to fear of demand
destruction for fuel amid slower economic activity. In turn, oil
futures were recently indicated below $85 per barrel, down nearly 12%
year-to-date. That has OPEC calling for a meeting November 18. It is
being presumed that OPEC will agree to production cut. Thursday
marked the first session after the ban on short-selling certain
financial stocks expired. The ban was originally limited to 799
financial stocks, but was later expanded to some nonfinancial
companies, such as Dow component General Motors (GM 4.76 -2.15). Shares
of GM have been consistently listed on the Dow since 1925, but slumped
to their lowest level since 1950 as participants assess the challenges
facing the company. GM was placed on CreditWatch Negative at Standard
& Poor's as the firm assessed the weakening state of global
automotive markets, along with capital market conditions that remain
challenging. Heavy selling pressure pushed the Dow well below 9000.
The index has not been that low since mid-2003. The session's action
also had the volatility index, VIX, above 60 for the first time ever. The
latest initial claims report was generally relegated to the back burner
since it didn't bring any surprises. Claims for the week ended October
4 fell 20,000 to 478,000, which is generally in-line with the consensus
estimate of 475,000. The four-week moving average bumped up to 482,500
and continuing claims hit 3.66 million from 3.60 million the week
before.
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| 10.10 08:19 |
FOREX. Thursday summary
The yen rose against the dollar, headed for its biggest weekly gain in a decade, on speculation a global stock-market rout will prompt investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with the Japanese currency. The yen was on course for its largest weekly gain versus the euro as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225 Stock Average both fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003. Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers meet today and tomorrow in Washington to discuss financial turmoil that has wiped more than $8 trillion off the value of global stocks this month and led to interest-rate cuts and bank bailouts in most of the member nations. The yen has surged 28 percent versus the Australian dollar, 20 percent against New Zealand's currency and 11 percent against the euro this month as investors pared so-called carry trades, in which investors get funds in nations such as Japan that have low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. Japan's benchmark rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 6 percent in Australia and 7.5 percent in New Zealand. The dollar's one-month 25-delta risk-reversal rate against the yen was minus 6.9625 percent today versus minus 6.4050 yesterday, signaling traders demand a greater premium for yen calls, which allow for purchases, over puts, which grant the right to sell. G-7 finance ministers and central bankers will meet for two- days in Washington to discuss the financial crisis, which has already led to bank bailouts in most of the member nations.
EUR/USD having established session high on $1,3785, the pair by the end of session has decreased below a level $1,3600. GBP/USD having reached a mark $1,7061, the pair has established a new five years' low. USD/JPY having tested resistance in the field of Y101,50, the rate has decreased below mark Y100,00, but nevertheless on results of session could show insignificant growth (+48 point).
Friday's session sees an early close for US markets ahead of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday, though the late European session is dominated by central bank and finance minister appearances, given the G7 meetings in Washington. European data for Friday starts at 0645GMT with France industrial production for August. This is followed at 0800GMT by Italian industrial production and at 1000GMT by the Eurozone August OECD lead indicator.
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| 10.10 08:00 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y101.50
Resistance 2: Y101.00
Resistance 1: Y99.80
Current price: Y100.68
Support 1: Y98.50
Support 2: Y97.90
Support 3: Y95.75
Comments: The yen rose against the dollar, headed for its biggest
weekly gain in a decade, on speculation a global stock-market rout will
prompt investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with
the Japanese currency.
The yen was on course for its largest weekly gain versus the euro as
the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225 Stock Average both fell
below 9,000 for the first time since 2003. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average
tumbled as much as 11 percent and the Dow plunged 7.3 percent yesterday.
At present as the nearest level of support acts Y98,50 (Oct 8 low),
further is located a level a session low on Y97,90, which successful
overcoming to Y95,75 (March 17low). At continuation of growth area
level Y99,80 will be the nearest resistance (session high, and also a
level 23,6% FIBO falling Y106,15-Y97,90). Above is possible return to
Y101,00 and Y101,50 (38,2 % FIBO and area of a yesterday's high
accordingly).
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| 10.10 07:40 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1500
Resistance 2: Chf1.1440
Resistance 1: Chf1.1315
Current price: Chf1.1185
Support 1: Chf1.1180
Support 2: Chf1.1140
Support 3: Chf1.1085
Comments: The dollar has decreased against franc. As the nearest
resistance acts the area of session ршпр Chf1,1315. Above is possible
growth to Chf1,1440 and further to Chf1,1500 (Monday's high). The
nearest support - area of a session low on Chf 1,1180 which overcoming
will open road to Chf1,1140 and further to Chf1,1085.
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| 10.10 07:21 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.7780
Resistance 2: $1.7585
Resistance 1: $1.7320
Current price: $1.6833
Support 1: $1.6800
Support 2: $1.6540
Support 3: $1.5750
Comments: The dollar rose as the freeze in credit markets and global
stock losses boosted demand for U.S. Treasuries. Banks' reluctance to
lend to each other also caused a shortage of dollars for funding,
accelerating the currency's gain. Support is located in a session low
on $1,6800, stronger level is $1,6540 (61,8% FIBO from growth $1,3670-$
2,160), further is possible falling to $1,5450 (76,4 %).Resistance is
presented by levels FIBO from falling $1,8670-$ 1,6900: $1,7320
(23,6%), $1,7585 (38,2%) and $1,7780 (50,0%).
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| 10.10 07:00 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.3980
Resistance 2: $1.3780
Resistance 1: $1.3740
Current price: $1.3529
Support 1: $1.3500
Support 2: $1.3445
Support 3: $1.3360
Comments:The euro headed for a third weekly loss against the dollar and
a second versus the yen on speculation the credit crisis in Europe will
deepen, prompting the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. As
the nearest support acts the area of a session low on $1,3500, further
is located a low of Monday on $1,3445, after overcoming the given level
probably falling to $1,3360 (Aug 2007 low). In case of restoration by
the nearest resistance there will be an area $1,3740 (area of Oct 2 low
and Okt 7-8 high). Further is Fibo on $1,3780 (23.6 % of decrease
$1,4870-$ 1,3440) and $1,3980 (38,2 %).
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| 10.10 06:41 |
Daily History for Okt 09, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.3784 1.3576 1.3597
USD/JPY 101.47 99.07 99.62
GBP/USD 1.7396 1.7061 1.7094
USD/CHF 1.1342 1.1227 1.1275
EUR/JPY 139.65 134.99 135.49
EUR/GBP 0.7970 0.7854 0.7952
GBP/JPY 176.40 169.75 170.33
GBP/CHF 1.9674 1.9258 1.9275
Change % Change Last
Nikkei -45.83 -0.5% 9 157.49
Topix +6.10 +0.7% 905.11
FTSE -52.89 -1.21% 4,313.80
DAX -126.62 -2.53% 4,887.00
CAC -54.19 -1.55% 3,442.70
Dow -675.97 -7.30% 8,579.19
NASDAQ -95.21 -5.47% 1,645.12
S&P -75.02 -7.62% 909.92
10yr Note +1.1900 +0.320% 3.834%
NYMEX Crude Oil -2.36 -2.65% 86.59
Gold -20.00 -2.21% 886.50
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| 10.10 06:20 |
Schedule for today, Friday, Okt 10, 2008
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a. (Sep) 2,5% 2,5%
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2,4% 2,4%
11:00 Canada Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6,2% 6,1%
11:00 Canada Net Change in Employment (Sep) 12.5K 15.2K
12:30 USA Trade Balance (Aug) -60,2 -62,2В
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 0,0% 2,7%
12:30 Canada International Merchandise Trade (Aug) 4,7B 4,9В
12:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep) -2.5% -3.7%
12:30 USA Import Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 16,0%
14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (3Q)
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