The euro headed for a weekly decline against the dollar on speculation a weakening European economic outlook will rule out future interest-rate increases.
The 15-nation currency traded near a one-week low against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he has ``no bias'' and that economic growth is ``not flattering,'' following the ECB's decision to raise its refinancing rate yesterday. The yen headed for weekly declines versus the Australian dollar and the South African rand after Japanese business confidence slid to the lowest in almost five years, encouraging so-called carry trades.
The euro stayed lower after a government report showed German manufacturing orders unexpectedly declined for a sixth straight month in May. Orders fell 0.9 percent from April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a gain of 0.8 percent.

EUR/USD: traded within $1.5725-$1.5675 range.
GBP/USD: traded within $1.9850/00.
USD/JPY: consolidated at Y106.85/60.

Resistance 3: Y108.40
Resistance 2: Y107.20
Resistance 1: Y106.70
Current price: Y106.65
Support 1: Y105.00 Support 2: Y104.50
Support 3: Y103.80
Comments: Above Y106.70 and Y107.20 resistance comes at Y108.20. Rise above may extend Y108.50/60. Below Y105.00, support is around Y104.50. Lower correction may reach Y103.80.

Resistance 3: Chf1.0460
Resistance 2: Chf1.0350
Resistance 1: Chf1.0280
Current price: Chf1.0260
Support 1: Chf1.0130
Support 2: Chf1.0050
Support 3: Chf0.9950
Comments: The nearest support at resent lows Chf1.0130 (50% Chf0.9650-Chf1.0620) and Chf1.0050.Resistance comes at Chf1.0280, break above to open a way to Chf1.0350. Further level comes on Chf1.0430/60.

Resistance 3: $1.9960
Resistance 2: $1.9900
Resistance 1: $1.9850
Current price: $1.9834
Support 1: $1.9800
Support 2: $1.9660
Support 3: $1.9580
Comments: cable trades near the nearest support at $1.9800 (50% of the resent rally and yesterday's low). A break under will open the way to $1.9670/60 (June 25 low) and Monday low at $1.9580. Resistance spotted at $1.9850, $1.9900 and $1.9960. A break above the latter level to open the way for a test of $2.0000/20 area.

Resistance 3:$1.6020
Resistance 2: $1.5900
Resistance 1: $1.5720
Current price: $1.5695
Support 1: $1.5670
Support 2: $1.5600
Support 3: $1.5460
Comments: The nearest resistance comes at $1.5720 $1.5900, then $1.5960. Stronger level is around record high $1.6020. The closest supports are $1.5670 (yeasterday low), and $1.5620/00. The stronger one comes at on $1.5540 with a break under will open the way to $1.5460 (last week low).

Cable moves down to challenge reported demand placed from around $1.9810, and said to extend toward $1.9790. Rate touches a low of $1.9803, just shy of Thursday's lows of $1.9800. Further demand noted toward $1.9770. Stops placed below. If triggered $1.9750 may be tested.

The euro headed for a weekly decline against the dollar on speculation a weakening European economic outlook will rule out future interest-rate increases.
The 15-nation currency traded near a one-week low against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he has ``no bias'' and that economic growth is ``not flattering,'' following the ECB's decision to raise its refinancing rate yesterday. The yen headed for weekly declines versus the Australian dollar and the South African rand after Japanese business confidence slid to the lowest in almost five years, encouraging so-called carry trades.
``The immediate reaction was to sell euros and buy dollars,'' said Thomas Harr, a senior currency strategist in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc, the U.K. bank that gets most of its profit from Asia. ``In the end, the ECB will be forced to lower rates. We don't believe in decoupling and do believe that the euro-zone will eventually slow.''

EUR/USD: traded within $1.5725-$1.5675 range.
GBP/USD: traded within $1.9850/00.
USD/JPY: consolidated at Y106.85/60.

BAS: Fed to keep key policy rate unchanged at 2.0%
"While there is another employment report before the August 5th FOMC meeting, Thursday's jobs data would argue for the Federal Reserve to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 2.0% for now."

Laurent Bilke of Lehman Brothers: ``ECB President Trichet did not sound significantly more hawkish than last month. He was not especially dovish either. Lehman's base case scenario remains unchanged and they look for the ECB to stay on hold in 2008 and then to cut rates from January onwards. However, we see a 30% risk of another rate hike by the end of the year; the most likely timing would probably be October or November."

-- Sees relatively slow GDP in Q2, Q3 2008
-- Growth should pick up after Q3
-- Sees moderate, ongoing growth in Euro area.

Resistance 3: Y108.40
Resistance 2: Y107.20
Resistance 1: Y106.70
Current price: Y106.62
Support 1: Y105.00
Support 2: Y104.50
Support 3: Y103.80

Comments: Above Y106.70 and Y107.20 resistance comes at Y108.20. Rise above may extend Y108.50/60. Below Y105.00, support is around Y104.50. Lower correction may reach Y103.80.

--RATE HIKE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FULFILL ECB'S MANDATE
--CENTRAL BANKS MUST ACT AGAINST SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS
--ECB TAKES CITIZENS' INFLATION CONCERNS SERIOUSLY
--CENTRAL BANKS CAN'T INFLUENCE RAW MATERIAL PRICES
--CAN'T DEFINE A EURO FOREX 'PAIN BARRIER' FOR FIRMS
--GERMAN FIRMS COMPETITIVE DESPITE HIGH EURO-DOLLAR
--ECB HAS NO FOREX TARGET BUT TAKES IT INTO ACCOUNT
--MONEY MARKETS IMPROVED, BUT STILL NOT NORMALISED

Resistance 3: Chf1.0460
Resistance 2: Chf1.0350
Resistance 1: Chf1.0280
Current price: Chf1.0262
Support 1: Chf1.0130
Support 2: Chf1.0050
Support 3: Chf0.9950

Comments: The nearest support at resent lows Chf1.0130 (50% Chf0.9650-Chf1.0620) and Chf1.0050.Resistance comes at Chf1.0280, break above to open a way to Chf1.0350. Further level comes on Chf1.0430/60.

Resistance 3: $1.9960
Resistance 2: $1.9900
Resistance 1: $1.9850
Current price: $1.9834
Support 1: $1.9800
Support 2: $1.9660
Support 3: $1.9580


Comments: cable trades near the nearest support at $1.9800 (50% of the resent rally and yesterday's low). A break under will open the way to $1.9670/60 (June 25 low) and Monday low at $1.9580. Resistance spotted at $1.9850, $1.9900 and $1.9960. A break above the latter level to open the way for a test of $2.0000/20 area.

Resistance 3:$1.6020

Resistance 2: $1.5900
Resistance 1: $1.5720
Current price: $1.5715
Support 1: $1.5670
Support 2: $1.5600
Support 3: $1.5460

Comments: The nearest resistance comes at $1.5720 $1.5900, then $1.5960. Stronger level is around record high $1.6020. The closest supports are $1.5670 (yeasterday low), and $1.5620/00. The stronger one comes at on $1.5540 with a break under will open the way to $1.5460 (last week low).

FTSE unchanged, the DAX up 5, the CAC up 10 and the Eurostoxx 50 up 3.

High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.5906 1.5681 1.5696
USD/JPY 106.93 105.78 105.77
GBP/USD 1.9935 1.9798 1.9827
USD/CHF 1.0279 1.0110 1.0267

EUR/JPY 169.10 167.35 167.60
EUR/GBP 0.7999 0.7910 0.7912
GBP/JPY 211.90 210.56 211.72
GBP/CHF 2.0370 2.0150 2.0357
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 -20.97 -0.16% 13,265.40
Topix -3.13 -0.2% 1 298.02
DAX 30 +48.32 +0.77% 6,353.74
САС 40 +47.51 +1.11% 4,343.99
FTSE +50.30 +0.93% 5,476.60
Dow +73.03 +0.65% 11,288.54
Nasdaq -6.08 -0.27% 2,245.38
S&P +1.38 +0.11% 1,262.90
10yr Note +0.1400 +0.035% 3.973%
OIL NYMEX +1.72 +1.20% 145.29
Gold -12.90 -1.36% 933.60

08:00 Japan Leading indicators (May) preliminary - 30.0
08:00 Japan Coincident indicators (May) preliminary - 27.3
13:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (May) adjusted 0.9% -1.8%
13:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (May) unadjusted Y/Y - 15.0%
13:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (May) seasonally adjusted Y/Y 1.9% 4.0%
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