| 03.07 18:11 |
Hot Stocks: Nvidia Corp, Yahoo, Abbott Laboratories
The chipmaker Nvidia Corp lowered its second-quarter revenue outlook
late Wednesday, partly because of consumer weakness around the world
and said some of its chips in notebook computers overheat, leading to a
charge of as much as $200M.
The Internet company Yahoo! Inc is pursuing deal talks with Time
Warner, the parent company of CNNMoney.com, over a combination
involving AOL.
The pharmaceuticals and medical device company Abbott Laboratories won
U.S. approval for its Xience heart stent, a product analysts predict
will lead a $4B-a-year market.
|
| 03.07 17:44 |
Lehman's base case scenario
Laurent Bilke of
Lehman Brothers: ``ECB President Trichet did not sound significantly
more hawkish than last month. He was not especially dovish either.
Lehman's base case scenario remains unchanged and they look for the ECB
to stay on hold in 2008 and then to cut rates from January onwards.
However, we see a 30% risk of another rate hike by the end of the year;
the most likely timing would probably be October or November."
|
| 03.07 17:23 |
Dow +68.00 at 11282.00, Nasdaq -6.00 at 2245.00, S&P +1.00 at 1262.00
The stock market's gains have waned. However, support at the neutral
line has protected the S&P 500 from trading with a loss. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average continues to trade with a respectable gain,
and the Nasdaq has fallen back into the red.
The greenback has shown notable strength this session. The dollar index
is up nearly 1% to 72.7. Meanwhile, Treasuries are seeing little
buying interest. The 10-year note is down just 2 ticks, while the
30-year bond is down 9 ticks.
The stock market will close at 1:00 PM ET ahead of the Independence Day holiday.
|
| 03.07 16:44 |
American focus: Euro falls as Trichet signals one rate increase may be enough
The euro fell the most against the dollar in more than three weeks
after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled that
he may not increase interest rates again.
The 15-nation euro also dropped against the pound as Trichet said that
he has ``no bias'' or ``pre-commitment'' following the decision to
raise the ECB's main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point to
4.25 percent. His comments helped counter a Labor Department report
showing U.S. employers eliminated jobs in June for a sixth consecutive
month.
Today's interest-rate increase will help the central bank bring
inflation back below 2 percent, Trichet said at a press conference in
Frankfurt. Economic growth may weaken to 1.5 percent next year from 1.8
percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2007, according to ECB staff.
Traders reduced bets the ECB will increase rates further this year. The
implied rate on the December Euribor interest- rate futures contract
fell to 5.14 percent, from 5.28 percent yesterday. The yield advantage
of two-year German bunds over comparable-maturity Treasury notes
decreased to 1.92 percentage points, making the European securities
less attractive to investors.
When Trichet signaled after the June 5 policy meeting that an
interest-rate increase this month was ``possible,'' the euro increased
1 percent against the dollar.
U.S. payrolls fell by 62,000 last month, following a revised decline of
62,000 in May, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The
median forecast of 81 economists was for a reduction of 60,000. The
jobless rate remained at 5.5 percent after jumping in May by the most
in two decades.
The dollar briefly pared its gain against the euro after a report
showed U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in June as
orders and employment fell. The Institute for Supply Management's index
of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the
economy, decreased to 48.2, the lowest since January, from 51.7 in May.
A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed an 18 percent chance the
Fed will increase its target rate for overnight lending between banks
by a quarter-percentage point at its Aug. 5 meeting, compared with 25
percent odds yesterday.
|
| 03.07 16:11 |
WEBER: Could see eurozone HICP around 4% until end of summer
-Inflation should ease slightly after the end of summer
-Hard to speak of less price pressure with rising oil price
-Today's decision was taken to anchor inflation expectations
-Inflation expectations very far away from 2% due to s-term high infl.
-Our monetary policy should help inflation expectations hit 2%
-ECB Interest rate hike will support private consumption
-Today's rate hike won't choke off eurozone growth
|
| 03.07 15:39 |
Blue chips rally despite oil
Dow and S&P 500 jump after ending the previous session at bear
market levels. Investors eye mostly in-line jobs report and dollar
strength after ECB hike. Nvidia drags on techs.
Blue chips gained Thursday morning as investors took in stride higher
oil prices and a mostly in-line jobs report - and breathed a sigh of
relief that the dollar held up despite a rise in interest rates
overseas.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained almost 1% nearly 2 hours into
the session, thanks to a bounce in GM after the previous session's
battering and some strength in financial shares.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.6%. The tech-heavy
Nasdaq composite added 0.2%, with a nearly 30% slump in chipmaker
Nvidia exerting pressure.
Oil prices continued to advance Thursday after settling at a record
$143.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the previous
session. U.S. light crude for August delivery rose 62 cents to $144.19
after hitting an electronic trading record of $145.85 earlier.
Prices have already risen more than 50% this year in response to tight supply and tensions in the Middle East.
Company news: GM gained nearly 3%, after plunging 15% Wednesday to a
near 54-year low, following an analyst downgrade that raised worries
about its cash position and the possibility of bankruptcy.
Nvidia shares slumped almost 30% in early trade after warning late
Wednesday that current-quarter sales won't meet forecasts due to slower
global demand. The graphics chipmaker also said its gross margin - a
key measure of profitability - won't meet forecasts.
In the bond market, Treasury prices were little changed, with the yield
on the benchmark 10-year note at 3.96%. Bond prices and yields move in
opposite directions.
|
| 03.07 15:15 |
Dow +75.00 at 11292.00, Nasdaq +4.00 at 2255.00, S&P +6.00 at 1268.00
All three of the major indices chop along in positive territory. The
Dow is outpacing its counterparts, helped by the likes of mega-cap
holdings Exxon Mobil (+1.87) and IBM (+0.96).
|
| 03.07 14:32 |
Dow -33.00 at 11180.00, Nasdaq -20.00 at 2232.00, S&P -8.00 at 1254.00
Selling pressure intensified to knock each of the major indices into
the red. The Nasdaq continues to trade with losses, lagging either of
its counterparts.
The Nasdaq's weakness is largely attributable to semiconductors. NVIDIA (-5.42) is down 30% after providing a disappointing outlook. Shares of Intel (-0.44) are trading lower on fears it may experience similar weakness in its end markets.
|
| 03.07 14:14 |
BAS about US OUTLOOK
"While there is another employment report before the August 5th FOMC meeting, today's report would argue for the Federal Reserve to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 2.0% for now."
|
| 03.07 14:02 |
USA: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun) 48,2 |
| 03.07 13:53 |
Handelsbank about the labor market :
"The continued erosion in the weekly claims and continuing claims
series underscores that labor market conditions are deteriorating just
not at a fast enough rate to scare off the optimists."
|
| 03.07 13:34 |
US Stocks Open: DJIA +52.35, Nadaq +6.55, S&P +6.50 |
| 03.07 13:18 |
Before the bell: Wall Street set to open higher
Stock futures are now on track for a modestly upward start to Thursday's action. (S&P futures +8.8, Nasdaq futures +5.5). The dollar has strengthened and the advance in crude oil prices has eased a bit.
The unemployment rate for June came in at 5.5%, which is above the 5.4%
rate of unemployment that economists forecast. The rate reflects a
62,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls. The change in payrolls was unchanged
from the prior month, but 2,000 more than economists expected. Jobless
claims for the week ending June 28 totaled 404,000, topping the 385,000
claims economists expected and up from the prior week.
|
| 03.07 12:47 |
USA: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) 0,6% |
| 03.07 12:38 |
ECB TRICHET:
Interest hike to prevent second round effects. Hike to counter upside inflation risks. Inflation to remain high for protracted time period. Strongly determined to firmly anchor inflation expectations. Will continue to monitor very closely all developments.
|
| 03.07 12:37 |
USA: Average Weekly Hours (Jun) 33.7 |
| 03.07 12:34 |
USA: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) -62K |
| 03.07 12:34 |
USA: Unemployment Rate (Jun) 5.5% |
| 03.07 12:34 |
USA: Jobless claims (week to 28.06) 404K |
| 03.07 11:59 |
EUR/USD Dropped back under $1.5900 as the ECB announced the widely expected 25bp rate hike.
Some in the market hasd suggested there
could have been a chanvc of a 50bp hike, based on recent reported
hawkish comments. Rate currently holds backa round $1.5890. Focus now
turns to US employment data at 1230GMT, with ECB Trichet presser to
quickly follow. Euro-dollar offers seen placed from above $1.5900
through to $1.5920. More seen at $1.5930 ahead of $1.5950. Bids
$1.5860/50.
|
| 03.07 11:45 |
ECB: Hikes refi rate 25bp, as expected to 4.25% |
| 03.07 11:41 |
HFE about US data
Economist Ian Shepherdson at HFE: « ADP report (-79K) is grim and if the survey's recent relationship with the official payroll numbers persists, you should expect a headline number near -200K tomorrow."
|
| 03.07 11:40 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for 1400GMT cut
EUR/USD $1.5500, $1.5750, $1.5825, $1.5850: $1.6000
USD/JPY Y106.00, Y106.75, Y107.00, Y107.15
GBP/USD $1.9950, $2.0000/10
NZD/USD $0.7600
EUR/JPY Y168.40, Y168.50
|
| 03.07 10:58 |
EUR/USD tech comments
The pair has
come off to a $1.5858 low, but bids just below, around $1.5850
have provided a cushion, helping the pair back up toward $1.5880 now.
Further offers now cited above $1.5900, to $1.5920, dealers say.
|
| 03.07 10:49 |
Lehman lowers its nonfarm payrolls forecast
Debate continues on ADP report, with most June NFP forecasts unch.
Lehman, however said the surprise was enough to warrant a change: "We
now look for nonfarm payrolls to have fallen by 75,000" vs prior
forecast of -50K.
|
| 03.07 10:32 |
European focus: dollar remains under pressure
The dollar traded near a two-month low against the euro on speculation
U.S. payrolls dropped for a sixth month and the European Central Bank
will signal more than one rate increase is needed to curb inflation.
All but one of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said ECB policy
makers, led by Jean-Claude Trichet, will raise the refinancing rate a
quarter-point to 4.25 percent today. The dollar was also near a
three-week low versus the yen before an industry report today that may
show growth in U.S. services industries slowed. Sweden's krona rose to
the highest level in a month against the dollar after the Riksbank
lifted its main rate.
``We're expecting a negative outcome from the jobs report and the
market will continue to believe Trichet's job isn't done yet,'' said
Roberto Mialich, a Milan-based currency strategist at Unicredit Markets
& Investment Banking, a unit of Italy's largest lender. ``This will
be supportive of the euro.''
The single European currency may rise to $1.5950 today, with a test of $1.60 ``possible,'' Mialich said
The euro rose 0.6 percent yesterday as ECB President Jean- Claude
Trichet said in an interview with Die Zeit there's a risk of inflation
``exploding'' if central banks aren't decisive.
The central bank announces its decision at 1145 GMT and Trichet holds a
press conference at 12:30 GMT, the same time the U.S. Labor Department
releases the jobs data.
The Labor Department will probably report today that U.S. employers
eliminated 60,000 jobs including government positions last month,
according to the median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg. The dollar weakened 1.2 percent against the euro and 1
percent versus the yen on June 6, when the government reported that the
U.S. lost 49,000 jobs in May.
Losses in the dollar may be limited by speculation U.S. officials will
verbally intervene to stem its decline and slow gains in oil prices
before a Group of Eight summit. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S. will meet in Hokkaido,
Japan, from July 7.
Crude oil rose to record $145.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the same
direction 90 percent of the time in the past year, according to
Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation of their value.
|
| 03.07 10:04 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y108.40
Resistance 2: Y107.20
Resistance 1: Y106.70
Current price: Y106.42
Support 1: Y105.00 Support 2: Y104.50
Support 3: Y103.80
Comments: Above Y106.70 and Y107.20
resistance comes at yesterday's peak of Y108.20. Rise above may extend Y108.50/60. Below Y105.00, support is around
Y104.50. Lower correction may reach Y103.80.
|
| 03.07 09:47 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0350
Resistance 2: Chf1.0300
Resistance 1: Chf1.0220
Current price: Chf1.0160
Support 1: Chf1.0130
Support 2: Chf1.0050
Support 3: Chf0.9950
Comments: The
nearest support at resent lows Chf1.0130
(50% Chf0.9650-Chf1.0620) and Chf1.0050.Resistance comes at former support around Chf1.0220,
break above to open a way to Chf1.0350. Further level comes on Chf1.0430.
|
| 03.07 09:28 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $2.0190
Resistance 2: $2.0020 Resistance 1: $1.9960
Current price: $1.9858
Support 1: $1.9850
Support 2: $1.9800
Support 3: $1.9660
Comments: Cable under pressure after weakUK Jun Services PMIdata. The nearest support is $1.9850 and $1.9800 (50% of the resent rally). A break under will open the way to $1.9670/60 (June 25 low) and Monday low at $1.9580. Resistance spotted at $1.9960. A break above the latter level to open the way for a test of $2.0000/20 area.
|
| 03.07 09:25 |
WTI Nymex crude oil extending gains to fresh record high at $145.40, up $1.83 on session. |
| 03.07 09:24 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.6020
Resistance 2: $1.5960
Resistance 1: $1.5900
Current price: $1.5876
Support 1: $1.5820
Support 2: $1.5720
Support 3: $1.5650
Comments: The nearest resistance
comes at $1.5900,
then $1.5960. Stronger level is around record high $1.6020. The closest supports are $1.5820 (former resistance),$1.5720 and $1.5630. The stronger one comes at on $1.5540 with a break under will open the
way to $1.5460 (last week low).
|
| 03.07 09:08 |
UK DARLING: UK economy will continue to grow
- Important to do everything to contain pay rises
|
| 03.07 09:01 |
E15: Retail sales in May +1.2% on the month, +0.2% on the year |
| 03.07 08:51 |
Asian session: Dollar under pressure ahead of US jobs data and ECB. [M]
The
dollar traded near a two-month low against the euro on speculation the
U.S. payrolls dropped for a sixth month and the European Central Bank
will signal more than one rate increase is needed to curb inflation.
All but one of 58 economists predict the ECB will raise its refinancing
rate a quarter-percentage point to 4 percent, a Bloomberg News survey
showed. The dollar was also near a three- week low versus the yen on
speculation an industry report today will show growth in U.S. services
industries slowed for a second month.
``Bad news comes from the U.S. everyday,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief
currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc., a unit of the
U.K.'s third-biggest bank. ``The ECB's rate hike today is a done deal
and the ECB will remain hawkish. The euro may rise above $1.60 against
the dollar today.''
EUR/USD: traded within $1.5855/90 range.
GBP/USD: traded within $1.9935/00 before fell to $1.9855.
USD/JPY: got support at Y105.80 before reached Y106.30.
Initial claims due at 1230GMT are expected to rise
6,000 to 390,000 in the June 28 week after holding steady in the
previous week, though this will be overshadowed by non-farm payrolls,
which are expected to fall 65,000 in June following declines in the
previous five months. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to
5.4% after jumping to 5.5% in the previous month. Hourly earnings are
forecast to rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to hold
steady at 33.7 hours. At 1400GMT the ISM's non-manufacturing index is forecast to decline to a reading of 51.5 in June.
|
| 03.07 08:32 |
UK Jun Services PMI 47.1 |
| 03.07 08:06 |
Global Insight about outlook of key interest rate of ECB
"The data (industrial orders) is likely to reinforce the ECB's
belief that the euro zone's economy is fundamentally sound and that it
can press ahead with raising its key interest rate from 4 percent to
4.25 percent at its 3 July meeting to try to ensure that current
elevated inflationary levels and pressures are not sustained over the
medium term."
|
| 03.07 08:00 |
Eurozone services PMI 49.1 in June vs flash 49.5 & 50.6 in May |
| 03.07 07:56 |
German services PMI 52.1 in June vs flash 53.3 & 53.8 in May |
| 03.07 07:30 |
SWEDEN: Riksbank raises interest rates by 25 basis points
- Repo rate moves to 4.50%
|
| 03.07 07:22 |
China shares were lower in early trade, tracking sharp losses on Wall Street after oil prices hit fresh records.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was
earlier down 73.27 points, or 2.76%, at 2,578.45. Ping An Insurance was
down 8.71% at 39.29 yuan after sliding 10% yesterday.
|
| 03.07 07:20 |
Japanese stocks ended Thursday's session modestly lower
Japanese stocks extended the losing streak to 11 sesssion - the longest since 1953.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 20.97 points, or 0.16%, at 13265.40.
Meanwhile, the broader-based TOPIX was down 3.13 points at 1298.02.
|
| 03.07 06:45 |
Globex traded US index futures are flat to modestly lower in Asian trade Thursday
The Sep S&P contract was
last 0.2 points higher at 1263.0, with the Nasdaq Sept contract lower
by 6.75 points at 1818.25.
|
| 03.07 06:27 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y108.40
Resistance 2: Y107.20
Resistance 1: Y106.70
Current price: Y106.12
Support 1: Y105.00 Support 2: Y104.50
Support 3: Y103.80
Comments: Above Y106.70 and Y107.20
resistance comes at yesterday's peak of Y108.20. Rise above may extend Y108.50/60. Below Y105.00, support is around
Y104.50. Lower correction may reach Y103.80.
|
| 03.07 06:12 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.0350
Resistance 2: Chf1.0300
Resistance 1: Chf1.0220
Current price: Chf1.0160
Support 1: Chf1.0130
Support 2: Chf1.0050
Support 3: Chf0.9950
Comments: The
nearest support at resent lows Chf1.0130
(50% Chf0.9650-Chf1.0620) and Chf1.0050.Resistance comes at former support around Chf1.0220,
break above to open a way to Chf1.0350. Further level comes on Chf1.0430.
|
| 03.07 06:09 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $2.0190
Resistance 2: $2.0020
Resistance 1: $1.9960
Current price: $1.9906
Support 1: $1.9800
Support 2: $1.9660
Support 3: $1.9580 Comments:
cable retains positive mood and trades near resistance spotted at $1.9960. A break above the latter level to open the way for a test of $2.0000/20 area. The nearest support is $1.9800 (50% of the resent rally). A break under will open the way to $1.9670/60 (June 25 low) and Monday low at $1.9580.
|
| 03.07 05:54 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.6020
Resistance 2: $1.5960
Resistance 1: $1.5900
Current price: $1.5866
Support 1: $1.5820
Support 2: $1.5720
Support 3: $1.5650
Comments: The nearest resistance
comes at $1.5900,
then $1.5960. Stronger level is around record high $1.6020. The closest supports are $1.5820 (former resistance),$1.5720 and $1.5630. The stronger one comes at on $1.5540 with a break under will open the
way to $1.5460 (last week low).
|
| 03.07 05:45 |
Swiss Jun CPI +0.2% m/m +2.9% y/y |
| 03.07 05:22 |
Brent crude broke through the $145.00 level in Asian trade.
WTI Nymex front-month contracts are a dollar higher on the session at a
new record high at $144.57 a barrel.
|
| 03.07 05:20 |
Daily History for July 02, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.5889 1.5776 1.5888
USD/JPY 106.75 105.77 105.83
GBP/USD 1.9972 1.9844 1.9935
USD/CHF 1.0231 1.0129 1.0130
EUR/JPY 168.60 167.31 168.16
EUR/GBP 0.7971 0.7912 0.7967
GBP/JPY 212.04 210.80 210.98
GBP/CHF 2.0359 2.0193 2.0198
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 -176.83 -1.31% 13,286.37
Topix -18.92 -1.4% 1 301.15
DAX 30 -10.52 -0.17% 6,305.42
САС 40 -44.73 -1.03% 4,296.48
FTSE -53.60 -0.98% 5,426.30
Dow -166.75 -1.46% 11,215.51
Nasdaq -53.51 -2.32% 2,251.46
S&P -23.39 -1.82% 1,261.52
10yr Note -0.3300 -0.083% 3.959%
OIL NYMEX +2.60 +1.84% 143.57
Gold +2.00 +0.21% 946.50
|
| 03.07 05:08 |
Schedule for today, Thursday , July 03, 2008
01:30 AU Trade Balance (May) -965M -950M -957M 03:00 NZ ANZ Commodity Price (May) 0% 1% 07:45 Italy PMI services (June) - 48.1 07:50 France PMI services (June) 49.2 50.5 07:55 Germany PMI services (June) seasonally adjusted 53.3 53.8 08:00 EU(15) PMI services (June) 49.5 50.6 08:30 UK CIPS services index (June) 49.5 49.8 09:00 EU(15) Retail sales (May) adjusted 0.5% -0.6% 09:00 EU(15) Retail sales (May) adjusted Y/Y -0.8% -2.9% 11:45 EU(15) ECB meeting announcement 4.25% 4.00% 12:30 EU(15) ECB press conference 12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 28.06) 375K 384K 12:30 USA Nonfarm payrolls (June) -50K -49K 12:30 USA Unemployment rate (June) 5.4% 5.5% 12:30 USA Average hourly earnings (June) 0.3% 0.3% 12:30 USA Average workweek (June) 33.8 33.7 14:00 USA ISM Non-mfg composite index (June) 52.0 51.7 14:00 USA ISM Non-mfg business index (June) - 53.6 20:30 USA M2 money supply (23.06), bln - +2.4
|