Back below $1.4600, as the dollar
gets another boost from easing oil, prompted by the weakening in
Hurrican Gustav. Bids seen placed to $1.4570, with stops placed on a
break below, which if triggered seen exposing the base of a much
reported $1.4550/1.4950 dnt option structure. Larger stops noted on a
break below $1.4550.
WTI Nymex crude oil breaks key support at $111.31/34, where former is
the 200-day moving average and latter the recent August low. WTI Nymex
crude oil is now trading at lowest level since May 1.
Made a brief show under $1.4600, trading to $1.4599 before bouncing
back, as a weakening in Hurricane Gustav (moves to category 2 from 3)
boosts the dollar via oil price slippage. If rate can clear back below
the figure seen opening a move down to $1.4570. Bids noted here
with decent sized stops placed on a break below, which if triggered
brings the well reported option barrier at $1.4550 into view (Asian
owned $1.4550/1.4950 dnt structure).
Seeing a move back above Y108.00 as wires report PM Fukuda is to
resign. Small offers at Y108.20 now coming into focus, stronger in the
Y108.60/70 area.
The yen rose to the highest level in five months
against the euro and rallied versus the dollar as a decline in stocks
prompted traders to pare holdings of higher- yielding assets funded in
the Japanese currency. The pound fell to a record low against the euro after
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the British economy
faces the worst slump in 60 years.
The Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at 5% on Sept. 4, according to a survey of economists. The euro fell against the dollar on speculation
European Central Bank policy makers will acknowledge this week that the
euro-zone economy is weakening, making an rate increase less likely.
The ECB will leave its benchmark rate at 4.25% on Sept. 4, according to
a survey. Business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy,
slumped last week, adding to concern the euro-zone will fall into a
recession.
“The euro has the potential to weaken,” said Osamu Takashima at Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “The ECB may cut rates in the fourth quarter
and the euro may decline to $1.45 in six months”, he said.
National Hurricane Center: Gustav is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and no signficant change in strength is likely before landfall."
The yen rose to the
highest level in five months against the euro and rallied versus the dollar as a decline in
stocks prompted traders to pare holdings of higher- yielding assets funded in
the Japanese currency.
The pound fell to a record low against the euro
after Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the British economy
faces the worst slump in 60 years.
The Bank of England will keep interest rates
unchanged at 5% on Sept. 4, according to a survey of economists.
The euro fell against the dollar on speculation European
Central Bank policy makers will acknowledge this week that the euro-zone
economy is weakening, making an rate increase less likely. The ECB will leave
its benchmark rate at 4.25% on Sept. 4, according to a survey. Business
confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slumped last week, adding to
concern the euro-zone will fall into a recession.
“The euro has the potential to weaken,” said
Osamu Takashima at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “The ECB may cut rates in
the fourth quarter and the euro may decline to $1.45 in six months”, he said.
Resistance 3: Y110.30 Resistance 2: Y110.00 Resistance 1: Y109.20 Current price: Y107.68 Support 1: Y107.50 Support 2: Y106.80 Support 3: Y106.00 Comments: USD/JPY weakens, but holds within the downward channel from Aug 15, limited by Y107.50/Y109.90 (key support and resistance respectively). Break under Y107.50 will target trend support line from Mar 17 at Y106.80. Below losses may extend down to Y106.00. Minor resistance comes at Y109.20 further – on Y109.90/00 channel line. Above there is a chance to test Aug 25 highs at Y110.30.
Resistance 3: Chf1.1320 Resistance 2: Chf1.1180 Resistance 1: Chf1.1040 Current price: Chf0.0967 Support 1: Chf1.0940 Support 2: Chf1.0880 Support 3: Chf1.0820Comments: As US financial msrkets are closed today in observance of Labor Day holiday, dollar’s move will correspond to EU currencies. In general, USD/CHF holds within the upward channel from Jul 16, limited today by Chf1.0940/Chf1.1320 (key support/resistance respectively). Below Chf1.0940 (channel line) next band of support comes near last week’s lows around Chf1.0880 and then – at Chf0.0820. Minor resistance comes at Asia highs near Chf1.1040/50, then – on Chf1.1180 (Jan 07 highs). Above the rebound may extend to channel line on Chf1.1320.
Resistance 3: $1.8340 Resistance 2: $1.8200 Resistance 1: $1.8130 Current price: $1.8042 Support 1: $1.8010 Support 2: $1.7800 Support 3: $1.7680 Comments: GBP/USD tested trend support line from Nov 2007 overnight (at $1.8010/20), but failed to break under and pulled back. Next band of support comes at $1.7790/00 (Apr 23 of 2006 lows). Break under will widen the decline to $1.7680 (channel line from Jul 31). Resistance is around session highs on $1.8130, above – at $1.8200. Stronger level is around $1.8330/40 (channel resistance line from Jul 31).
Resistance 3:$1.4960 Resistance 2: $1.4900 Resistance 1: $1.4800 Current price: $1.4640 Support 1: $1.4700 Support 2: $1.4620 Support 3: $1.4560 Comments: In general, rate still holds within the downward channel from Jul 22, limited today by $1.4260/$1.4880 (key support and resistance respectively). Resistance is around session high on $1.4700 with a break above will target Friday’s highs on $1.4760/70. Above the resistance comes at channel line on $1.4880. Interim support is near session low on $1.4610/15. Below losses may widen to Aug 26 low on $1.4570. Key support comes at $1.4440 (Feb lows).
GBP/JPY dropped to new lows around Y194.15/25 after triggering of the reported option barrier at Y195.00. Next band of reported demand seen placed at Y193.50, but some traders expect to see demand emerge ahead of Y194.00. Rate currently trades around Y194.55. Offers Y195.00.
01.09 09:01
Е15: Aug manufacturing PMI 47.6 vs flash 47.5 , July 47.4
01.09 08:59
GERMANY: Aug manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs flash 49.9, July 50.9
01.09 08:51
FRANCE: Aug manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs July 47.1, flash 45.1
01.09 08:47
ITALY: Aug manufacturing PMI 47.1 vs July 45.3
01.09 08:08
US markets remain closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday
Resistance 3: Y109.80 Resistance 2: Y109.00
Resistance 1: Y108.70
Current price: Y108.34
Support 1: Y108.10
Support 2: Y107.70 Support 3: Y106.60
Comments: Support
comes at Y108.10/00 21
August low and
55-day МА. Break under this level will open
the door to channel support line from Aug 15 at Y107.70. Strong support
is around channel line from Jul 16 on Y106.60. Nearest resistance is
today's high on Y108.70, further – at Y108.90/00 (50% of Y109.70/80 fall).
Resistance 3: Chf1.1260
Resistance 2: Chf1.1100 Resistance 1: Chf1.1040
Current price: Chf1.1015
Support 1: Chf1.0900 Support 2: Chf1.0880 Support 3: Chf1.0820
Comments: USD/CHF remains within the upward channel from Jul 16, limited today by
Chf1.0880/Chf1.1260 (key support/resistance respectively). Support is
around Chf1.0900 (yesterday’s low). Below correction may widen to
channel support line on Chf1.0880 with a break under accelerates to
last week’s lows on Chf1.0820. Minor resistance comes at session highs
near Chf1.1040/45 with stronger – on trend resistance line from Mar at
Chf1.1090/00. Above key resistance comes at Chf1.1260 (the upper bound
of the channel from Jul 16).
Resistance 3: $1.8330
Resistance 2: $1.8250
Resistance 1: $1.8130
Current price: $1.8038
Support 1: $1.8000 Support 2: $1.7980
Support 3: $1.7900
Comments: cable remains under pressure after weak data. Closest support comes near session's low on $1.8000/05 with a
break under to drag the pound down to $1.7980, 50% projection of $2.0140/1.8515 fall. Resistance is around $1.8130
(session's high). Break above will bring the
rate to resent highs on $1.8250 (5-day MA) and then – to Friday's high at $1.8330/40.
Resistance 3:$1.4960
Resistance 2: $1.4900
Resistance 1: $1.4800
Current price: $1.4636
Support 1: $1.4615
Support 2: $1.4570
Support 3: $1.4520
Comments: euro remains under pressure. Support comes at $1.4615/20 (session low). Under
there is a chance to test Tuesday’s lows on $1.4560/70. Resistance comes around $1.4800 (Monday’s high), with a break above
will let the rate to challenge $1.4900/10 (Aug 21 high and 23.6% Fibo
of $1.6030 - $1.4560 decline). Key resistance is near channel line from
Jul 22 at $1.4950/60.
01.09 07:22
Nikkei opened up the afternoon session extending the morning losses and currently trading lower by 1.5%, -194.30 at 12,878.57
