Stiri financiare

U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow for the Independence Day holiday.

Corporate news flow has been slow this session. However, Exelon (EXC 49.42, -2.14) did announce this morning that it has increased its exchange offer to acquire NRG Energy (NRG 24.76, -1.29). Exelon is now offering to exchange for each NRG share 0.545 of EXC shares. The exchange rate marks a 12% increase over the initial exchange offer of 0.485. However, as of the prior session's close, shares of EXC are down roughly 5.5% since the initial offer was made back in October.
Following this morning's announcement, Exelon affirmed its second quarter and full-year earnings guidance, which call for earnings from $0.95 to $1.05 per share in the second quarter and earnings from $4.00 to $4.30 per share for the year.

Acura Pharmaceuticals Inc The pharmaceutical said the Food and Drug Administration raised issues about the potential abuse-deterrent benefits of Acurox Tablets CII, a painkiller Acura is developing with King Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Cisco Systems Inc The world’s largest maker of networking equipment was rated “buy” in new coverage by Deutsche Bank AG, which said the stock is “attractively priced” given its growth potential.

Elan Corp PLC J&J will take over Wyeth’s joint venture with Elan on Alzheimer's and also invest $1B in the Irish company, to give J&J an 18.4% stake.

E*Trade Financial Corp The online brokerage will exchange more than $1.7B in convertible debentures after about $1.83B in senior notes were tendered to its debt-exchange offer.

The S&P 500 remains confined to a narrow trading range that is trending just above the 900 level. The benchmark index has yet to violate the psychologically significant line, though.
Given today's losses, the S&P 500 is on track for a weekly loss of 1.9%. That would mark the third straight weekly decline for the stock market. This week's decline is currently worse than the Dow's week-to-date loss of 1.3%, but not quite as bad as the Nasdaq's 2.0% loss.
Small-cap stocks have suffered the most this week. In turn, the Russell 2000 is on track for a weekly loss of 2.5%. Most of that decline is coming from this session's 3.3% loss.

Barclays: "Weaker than expected US employment report does not derail expectations of H2 recovery." Choppy recovery will continue.

The major indices continue to trade with steep losses.

The dollar and yen advanced against the euro as a U.S. government report showed employers cut more jobs last month than economists forecast, paring demand for higher-yielding assets.
The euro extended declines versus the dollar as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said a “phase of recovery” for the region will probably start in the middle of 2010. The dollar earlier climbed versus the euro after China renewed its call for a stable greenback and damped speculation the nation is seeking talks on a new international currency at next week’s Group of Eight meeting.

“The bias is for dollar strength after these numbers,” said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG, the world’s second-largest currency trader. “Investors are waking up and rubbing their eyes and saying, ‘It’s summer, and things are not getting better.’”
Employers eliminated 467,000 jobs in June after a revised decrease of 322,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington.The unemployment rate increased to 9.5 percent.
The dollar declined beyond $1.42 versus the euro yesterday after Reuters cited G-8 sources as saying the Asian nation asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week’s summit. China is the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, with $763.5 billion as of April.
The ECB kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1 percent today.
The region’s 16-nation currency will probably fall to $1.33 by the end of September as economic data globally will strengthen arguments for a weaker recovery, according to Lauren Rosborough, a foreign-exchange strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in London.
“We all know the euro should weaken,” Rosborough said. “We are not talking about a rapid recovery and certainly not a strong one.”

Boeing Co reports 20 Jun new orders, vs 20 in May.

The major averages have drifted even lower over the past 30 minutes, with the Dow and S&P 500 both hitting session lows just minutes ago. Each of the major indices have since bounced slightly higher, but are still logging significant losses.
The S&P 500 is near the key 900 level, although it has yet to breach it. Additionally, volume has been slowing, and will likely continue to drop off ahead of the long Fourth of July weekend.

"Index of total hours worked continues to slide and, coupled with flattening in wages, implies continuing slippage in wage and salary income. Claims offer little hope that conditions are changing."

After a fairly busy morning in terms of economic data releases, news flow has slowed considerably, and the stock market remains solidly in the red. Losses are broad based without any sector trading meaningfully higher. For the NYSE, there are almost seven losers for every winner. Following yesterday's weakness, energy (-2.8%) and retail (-3.6%) again are two areas that are being hit especially hard. Crude oil and natural gas have both been trading with sharp losses this morning.

Stops mentioned earlier sub $1.3990 remain intact. Bids in place below there at $1.3980 with a bigger raft of stops sub $1.3975.

U.S. crude fell to $66.85 a barrel

- Covered Bond Buys To Be On Case By Case Basis
- Size Of Credit-Enhancement Program Appropriate
- Current Liquidity Supply "Appropriate"
- Haven't Envisaged Any Further Special Ops
- 12-Mo Repo Takes Tight Corp Financing Into Account
- Demand Plays Strong Role In Slowing Down Of Credit
- Banks Must Pass On Liquidity To Private Borrowers
- Urges Bks To Make Use Of Recapitalization Schemes
- Didn't Decide That 1% Is Lowest Level
- Confirms EUR60B Size Of Bond Buys

The major indices have pulled up a bit from their morning lows in the wake of some pleasing factory orders data. Factory orders for May increased 1.2%, which is better than the 0.9% increase that was expected and up from the previous month's 0.5% increase. Losses in the equity market remain considerable, though.

- Decline In Short-Term Lending
- Bks Passed On Low Refi Costs To Customers
- Improving Financing Conditions Expected
- Banks Must Further Strengthen Capital Bases
- Rate Cuts Have Yet To Feed Through In Full
- 1-Yr Refi Op To Strengthen Bks, Money Mkts
- To Unwind Measures Quickly If Econ Improves
- ECB To Monitor "Very Closely" All Devts
- To Counter Threat To CPI Stability In Timely Fashion
- Euro-Zone Govt Must Communicate Fiscal Exits
- Current Rates Are Appropriate, Recent Data Confirm
- Govt Exit Strategies Must Be Ambitious
- Normal For Eonia To Be Between Deposit And Refi
- No Reason To Change Full Allotment Policy
- Large Use Of Deposit Facility Not Surprising
- 1st One-Year Op "Enourmous Success"

Stocks are being whacked with a wave of selling pressure. The decline is steep and broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trade with losses of 1% or more.

May factory new orders +1.2% vs +1.4% expected and following downward to April.

- Inflation Expectations Remain Firmly Anchored
- Monetary Analysis Suggests CPI Stability Mid-Term
- Recovery Forecast Reflects Fiscal Stimulus Impact
- Risks To Econ Outlook Broadly Balanced
- Further Deterioration In Labor Markets A Risk
- Annual CPI Rates May Remain Negative In Coming Mos
- Short-Term CPI Moves Not Relevant For Policy
- Price Devts To Remain Damped By Weak Econ Activity
- CPI Risks Broadly Balanced
- Low Inflation Pressure Stemming From Money Growth

FTSE -80.00 (-1.85%) at 4,260, CAC -73.00 (-2.27%) at 3,144, Dax -136.00 (-2.78%) at 4,772

- Current Interest Rates Appropriate
- Price Dvts Over Policy-Relevant Period "Dampened"
- Econ Slowdown Will Ease In 2H 2009
- Growth To Resume Mid-2010 After Stabilization
- Economy To Gradually Recover In 2010

U.S. stocks were poised to open lower Thursday, the end of a holiday-shortened week, as investors awaited the government's June jobs report. Futures measure current index values against the perceived future performance. They can be used as a forecast for trading after the bell, though they're not always an accurate harbinger.

On Wednesday, Wall Street started the third quarter with a modest rally. Reports on manufacturing and housing indicated that the pace of the recession is slowing. The biggest market-mover Thursday will be the monthly employment report, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. He said that a higher-than expected job report from Automatic Data Processing on Wednesday is a hint that the U.S. government's payroll numbers might disappoint. "There is probably more of an opportunity for this number to come out worse than expected," said Hogan, referring to the employment report. Manus Cranny, market analyst at MF Global in London, said futures were down because of "a little bit of nervousness" ahead of the employment numbers, which will play a crucial role in deciding the direction of Wall Street. "We will be crying in our cups if this number upsets the market," said Cranny. The June employment report is due out from the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. ET. Employers are expected to have cut 365,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting a much smaller-than-expected 345,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 9.6% from a nearly 26-year high of 9.4% in May. The government will also release its weekly initial claims report, measuring the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. The measure is expected to dip to 615,000 from 627,000 the week before. After the start of trading, the Commerce Department will release the May factory orders report. Orders are expected to have risen 0.9% after climbing 0.7% in April. All financial markets are closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

- US Jun 20 Week Continuing Claims -53K to 6,702,000
- US Jun Overall Workweek -0.1 Hour To 33 Hours
- US Jun 20 Week Jobless Claims Revised To 630K From 627K
- US May Unemployment Left Unrevised At 9.4%
- US Jobless Rate Highest Since Aug '83
- US Govt Payrolls Down On Census-Related Layoffs

May-Apr revs were a net -8k. Hours fell and wages moderated (AHE flat for +2.7% YOY), suggesting lower IP and income ahead. Payroll declines were widespread but incl -46.3k federal ex PostOffice, mostly firings of temp Census workers; also mfg -136k, construction -79k, retail -21k, finance -27k, leisure -18k, temp -37.6k; only gains were ed/health +34k.
The 1m employ diffusion index was 28.6%, showing overall weakness.
Details: Payrolls Prior AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Jun -467k ----- +2.7% 99.0 9.5% (9.507%)
May -322k -345k +3.1% 99.8r 9.4% (9.357%)
Apr -519k -504k +3.2% 100.1r 8.9% (8.870%)
- Unemply claims -16k to 614k for Jun 27 wk, confirms improvement
vs the 632k May avg. This is still consistent with large payroll losses.

A bigger than expected rise in U.S. gasoline stocks and a fresh focus on global financial weakness pushed oil markets down a dollar on Thursday to around $68 a barrel. For the next clue on the economic health of the world's top energy consumer, traders were looking to U.S. non-farm payroll data for release on Thursday, expected to show unemployment at a 26-year high of 9.6 percent. "There's a sense we're breaking to the down-side because of weak economic data ... unemployment, house prices, lower stock markets," said Christopher Bellew of Bache Commodities. U.S. crude fell $1.08 to $68.23 a barrel by 0956 GMT (5:56 a.m. EDT). The contract settled 58 cents lower at $69.31 on Wednesday. London Brent crude dropped by 92 cents to $67.87.

Data:
09:00 E16 Unemployment (May) 9.5%
09:00 Е16 PPI (May) -0.2%
09:00 Е16 PPI (May) Y/Y -5.8%

The yen and the dollar strengthened as stocks around the world declined before a report likely to show the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high, spurring demand for the currencies as a refuge.
The dollar was also buoyed after a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said he was “not aware” of a plan to discuss a new reserve currency at next week’s Group of Eight meeting.
U.S. employers cut 365,000 jobs last month after reducing them by 345,000 in May, according to a survey of economists before the Labor Department report. The unemployment rate climbed to 9.6 percent, a separate survey showed.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, advanced 0.4 percent to 79.946.
The dollar fell yesterday after Reuters reported that China had asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at the G-8 summit in Italy. China’s central bank renewed its call for a new global currency in its 2008 review released last week, prompting speculation that the country will diversify its currency reserves.
The yen strengthened versus 12 of the 16 major currencies as stocks declined before the U.S. employment report. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 1.3 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.5 percent.

EUR/USD the pair continued to sustain losses therefore the low in the field of $1,4040 reached

GBP/USD the rate decreased in area $1,6330 then it could be restored in area $1,6400

USD/JPY movement of pair has been limited by frameworks Y96,50-Y96,80

The main events for the session are US labor data and the 1145GMT interest rate decision from the ECB, followed by the usual press conference at 1230GMT. US markets are closed for the Independence Day holidays tomorrow, which brought the US labor market forward by a day, although there is no early close planned for today.
U.S. employers cut 365,000 jobs last month after reducing them by 345,000 in May, according to a survey of economists before the Labor Department report. The unemployment rate climbed to 9.6%, a separate survey showed.

ECB leaves rates unchanged, as expected

Citi calls for -400k jobs Thurs and "today's ADP report (-473,000 private job losses) also suggests downside risk." Report is due to come on Thursday as on Friday US markets will be closed in observance of the Independence Day.

The yen and the dollar strengthened as stocks around the world declined before a report likely to show the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high, spurring demand for the currencies as a refuge.
The dollar was also buoyed after a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said he was “not aware” of a plan to discuss a new reserve currency at next week’s Group of Eight meeting.
“If there’s a disappointing number, the market will take fright and the dollar may get more support,” said Gavin Friend, a markets strategist at National Australia Bank in London.
U.S. employers cut 365,000 jobs last month after reducing them by 345,000 in May, according to a survey of economists before the Labor Department report. The unemployment rate climbed to 9.6 percent, a separate survey showed.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, advanced 0.4 percent to 79.946.
The dollar fell yesterday after Reuters reported that China had asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at the G-8 summit in Italy. China’s central bank renewed its call for a new global currency in its 2008 review released last week, prompting speculation that the country will diversify its currency reserves.
The yen strengthened versus 12 of the 16 major currencies as stocks declined before the U.S. employment report. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 1.3 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.5 percent.

Resistance 3: Y98.50
Resistance 2: Y97.80
Resistance 1: Y97.10
Current price: Y96.59
Support 1: Y96.30
Support 2: Y95.40
Support 3: Y95.00
COMMENTS: Tech hasn't changed. Strong resistance comes at channel line from Jun 23 on Y97.10. Above the target comes at Y97.80 (channel line from Apr 06). Break above will strengthen dollar’s demand and opens the way to Y98.50/60 (Jun 15 highs). Support is near session low on Y96.30. Stronger level – is around trend line from Jan 21 at Y95.40. Break under will widen losses to Y94.90/00 (Jun 23 lows).

Resistance 3:Chf1.0940
Resistance 2:Chf1.0880
Resistance 1:Chf1.0820
Current price: Chf 1.0815
Support 1:Chf1.0700
Support 2:Chf1.0630
Support 3:Chf1.0530
СOMMENTS: The pair bargains in the field of session high, which act as the nearest resistance (Chf1.0820), stronger – on Chf1.0880 (Jul 01 high). Above the target comes at Chf1.0940. Strong support comes at broken on Jun 24 channel line from Apr 20 at Chf1.0700. Under that level dollar may decline to Chf1.0630 (Jin 24 low), and then – to Chf1.0530/40 Dec 31’2008 low). Resistance is around session highs on Chf1.0780, stronger – on Chf1.0880 (Jul 01 high). Above the target comes at Chf1.0940.

Resistance 3:$1.6740
Resistance 2:$1.6560
Resistance 1:$1.6500348437
Support 1: $1.6330
Support 2: $1.6200
Support 3: $1.6020
COMMENTS: The pair continues to sustain losses. Support comes at $1.6330 (session low) with a break under will strengthen bearish momentum down to $1.6200 (area of session lows of two last weeks). Below there is a level of 23,6 % FIBO of $1,3650-$ 1,6740 growth on $1.6020. Resistance comes at session high on $1.6500 with stronger – on $1.6560 (50% Fibo of $1.6740 - $1.6380 decline). Above the target is around $1.6740 (Jun 30 highs).

Resistance 3:$1.4270
Resistance 2:$1.4200
Resistance 1:$1.4150
Current price: $1.4087
Support 1:$1.4040
Support 2:$1.3940
Support 3:$1.3820
COMMENTS: Euro retreats after yesterday’s rally. Support comes at $1.4040 with stronger one – on the channel support line from Jun 16 at $1.3940. Below losses may widen to $1.3820 (Jun 22 lows). Resistance comes at session highs on $1.4150, stronger – on $1.4200 (rate failed to break under this level yesterday). Above the resistance comes at $1.4240/70 (Jun 04-05 highs).

Unemployment (May) 9.5%
PPI (May) -0.2%
PPI (May) Y/Y -5.8%

FTSE -37.47 (-0.86%) at 4,303.24, CAC -39.21 (-1.22%) at 3,177.79, Dax -80.11 (-1.63%) at 4,825.33

USD/JPY
Offers Y97.20, Y97.00
Bids Y96.00

EUR/USD
Offers $1.4200/10, $1.4170/80, $1.4150/55
Bids $1.4080, $1.4050, $1.4020, $1.4000, $1.3980

The dollar strengthened after a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said he hoped the greenback would remain stable and was “not aware” of a plan to discuss a new reserve currency at next week’s Group of Eight meeting.
The dollar climbed from a three-week low versus the euro after falling yesterday when Reuters reported that China had asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at the G-8 summit in Italy. China’s central bank in its 2008 review released last week renewed its call for a new global currency. The restatement of Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s proposal in March added to speculation that China will diversify its currency reserves.
The yen rose from near a two-week low against the euro on speculation a U.S. report today will show the world’s biggest economy lost jobs for an 18th month, spurring demand for the safety of Japan’s currency.
The euro traded near a one-week high against the pound on prospects the European Central Bank will refrain from cutting interest rates at a meeting today, maintaining the appeal of the region’s assets.
The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. currency and the yen after the trade deficit widened more than economists forecast, signaling the central bank may keep interest rates at a 49-year low for an extended period.

EUR/USD fell from $1.4150 to $1.4080.

GBP/USD sharply declined from $6500 to $1.6320.

USD/JPY rose from Y96.40 to Y96.80.

EUR/USD: $1.4000, $1.4100, $1.4150, $1.4200, $1.4235
USD/JPY: Y97.00, Y96.55, Y96.30, Y96.20, Y96.00, Y95.55, Y98.00
GBP/USD: $1.6425, $1.6500
AUS/USD: $0.8000
AUS/JPY: Y77.15

Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's session lower, unable to hold gains made early in the session. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 63.78 points, or 0.64%, to stand at 9876.15. The broader-based TOPIX was 4.28 points lower at 924.02.

Majors close
Nikkei -18.51 (-0.19%) 9939.93
FTSE +91.50 (+2.15%) 4340.71
DAX +96.80 (+2.01%) 4905.44
CAC +76.56 (+2.44%) 3217.00
Dow +57.06 (+0.68%) 8504.06
NASDAQ +10.68 (+0.58%) 1845.72
S&P +4.01 (+0.44%) 923.33
NYMEX Crude Oil -0.58 (-0.83%) $69.20

Japanese equities dropped after news of share issues by All Nippon Airways and Orix.

ANA, Japan’s second-biggest airline, said it planned to raise Y182.6bn ($1.9bn) to buy new aircraft. News of the issue sent the stock down as much as 7.4 before shares closed 5.9%.
Orix shares dropped as much as 7.1% before finishing down 4.8% on expectations that it was also preparing to tap the market through an equity offering.
The Bank of Japan Tankan survey showed that manufacturers’ sentiment in June improved less than economists had estimated.
Exporters declined after the report, in spite of the continued weakening of the yen. Toyota lost 1.1% while Sony fell 1.2%. Canon shed 1%.
Shinsei and Aozora announced merger terms, including setting a date for October 2010 and a 1:1 merger ratio. The deal is structured as a merger of equals with Shinsei becoming the surviving bank. Shinsei shares gained 1.3% while Aozora also gained 1.3%.

European stocks rose, extending the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index’s biggest quarterly gain this decade, after reports on manufacturing in China, Europe and the U.S. added to optimism the worst of the recession is over.

Carrefour SA increased 5.7% on speculation Chief Executive Officer Lars Olofsson’s plan to revamp stores and cut costs will reignite growth.
Commerzbank AG soared 19% after Morgan Stanley said an agreement by German politicians on a revised “bad bank” plan may boost the shares.
Vedanta Resources Plc led mining companies higher as copper extended its first-half gain.
Marks & Spencer Plc added 3.8% after the U.K.’s largest clothing retailer reported its smallest quarterly sales decline in almost two years as promotions and warmer weather boosted sales of summer fashions and food.
Metro AG, the biggest retailer in Germany, gained 6.2% after retail sales in Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly climbed for a third month in May.

Stocks on Wall Street climbed Wednesday, with investors starting off the third quarter on a positive note, after reports on manufacturing and housing added to bets that the pace of the recession is slowing.

Stocks ended an otherwise strong second quarter with losses Tuesday on a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report and falling oil prices. But investors moved back into stocks Wednesday after manufacturing and housing reports showed the pace of the contraction in those sectors is easing.
Gains were broad based, with 24 of 30 Dow stocks rising, led by IBM, Coca-Cola, 3M and oil components Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
A variety of tech shares rallied, including Dow components Intel, Microsoft and Cisco Systems.
Economy: Manufacturing showed a small improvement in June. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index improved to 44.8 from 42.8 in the previous month. Economists thought it would improve to 44.9.
Labor market: Employers in the private sector cut 473,000 jobs from their payrolls in June, according to a morning report from payroll services firm ADP. Economists thought 394,000 jobs would be cut.

Data released
05:00 Japan Housing starts (May) Y/Y -30.8% -27.8% -32.4%
05:00 Japan Construction orders (May) Y/Y -41.9% - -25.9%
06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (June) 0.9% 0.2% 1.2%
06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (June) Y/Y -9.3% -10.1% -11.3%
06:45 France PPI (May) -0.3% 0.1% -0.6%
06:45 France PPI (May)Y/Y -7.8% - -5.5%
07:55 Germany Unemployment (June) seasonally adjusted +31K +45K +1K
07:55 Germany Unemployment (June) seasonally adjusted, mln 3.495 - 3.456
07:55 Germany Unemployment rate (June) seasonally adjusted 8.3% 8.3% 8.2%
07:55 Germany Unemployment (June) seasonally unadjusted, mln 3.410 - 3.458
07:55 Germany Unemployment rate (June) seasonally unadjusted 8.1% - 8.2%
08:00 Italy PPI (May) -0.2% -0.1% -0.5%
08:00 Italy PPI (May) Y/Y -6.1% - -5.3%
08:00 EU(16) M3 money supply (May) adjusted Y/Y 3.7% 4.6% 4.9%
08:00 EU(16) M3 money supply (3 months to May) adjusted Y/Y 4.5% 4.9% 5.2%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) final -2.4% -1.9% -1.9%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) final Y/Y -4.9% -4.1% -4.1%
08:30 UK Current account (Q1), bln -8.5 -6.7 -8.8 (-7.6)
09:00 Italy CPI (June) preliminary 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
09:00 Italy CPI (June) preliminary Y/Y 0.5% 0.5% 0.9%
09:00 Italy HICP (June) preliminary Y/Y 0.6% - 0.8%
09:00 EU(16) Harmonized CPI (June) Y/Y preliminary -0.1% -0.2% 0.0%
12:55 USA Redbook (27.06)
13:45 USA Chicago PMI (June) 39.9 38.4 34.9
14:00 USA Consumer confidence (June) 49.3 55.2 54.8 (54.9)
23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan survey (Q2) -48 -43 -58

The yen declined to a two-week low against the euro as China’s manufacturing expanded in June for a fourth month, increasing demand for higher-yielding assets on bets the global recession is easing.
Japan’s currency also weakened as a report showed U.S. manufacturing shrank in June at the slowest pace in 10 months. The yen weakened after the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed sentiment among the largest manufacturers rose less than economists forecast. The index of sentiment among large makers of electronics, cars and other products climbed to -48 in June from -58 in March, the central bank said in Tokyo. The median forecast of economists was for a reading of -43.
The Australian dollar gained versus the yen after a report showed the nation’s retail sales climbed for a third month. The statistics bureau reported retail sales gained 1% in May from the previous month, when they climbed 0.3%.
The benchmark interest rate is 0.1% in Japan, compared with 1% in the 16-nation euro region, 3% in Australia and 2.5% in New Zealand.
The euro strengthened against the dollar as every stock market in Europe advanced. The euro gained against the dollar as a government report showed retail sales in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly rose for a third month in May, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow. ECB member Axel Weber, who heads the Bundesbank, said last week policy makers have used up their scope to cut rates.

EUR/USD printed low on $1.4000 before rising to $1.4080. After some correction to $1.4042 rate resumed its rise up to $1.4202. Later euro retreated to $1.4135.

GBP/USD initially declined to $1.6380 before recovered and printed highs on $1.6540. Later rate retreated to $1.6461.

USD/JPY rose from Y96.16 to Y96.90 before sliding to Y96.70.

The main events for the session are US labor data and the 1145GMT interest rate decision from the ECB, followed by the usual press conference at 1230GMT. US markets are closed for the Independence Day holidays tomorrow, which brought the US labor market forward by a day, although there is no early close planned for today.

Resistance 3: Y98.50
Resistance 2: Y97.80
Resistance 1: Y97.10
Current price: Y96.70
Support 1: Y96.30
Support 2: Y95.40
Support 3: Y95.00
COMMENTS: Rate holds within the narrow range. Strong resistance comes at channel line from Jun 23 on Y97.10. Above the target comes at Y97.80 (channel line from Apr 06). Break above will strengthen dollar’s demand and opens the way to Y98.50/60 (Jun 15 highs). Support is near session low on Y96.30. Stronger level – is around trend line from Jan 21 at Y95.40. Break under will widen losses to Y94.90/00 (Jun 23 lows).

Resistance 3:Chf1.0940
Resistance 2:Chf1.0880
Resistance 1:Chf1.0780
Current price: Chf 1.0773
Support 1:Chf1.0700
Support 2:Chf1.0630
Support 3:Chf1.0530
СOMMENTS: The dollar holds within the narrow range, looking optimistic. Strong support comes at broken on Jun 24 channel line from Apr 20 at Chf1.0700. Under that level dollar may decline to Chf1.0630 (Jin 24 low), and then – to Chf1.0530/40 Dec 31’2008 low). Resistance is around session highs on Chf1.0780, stronger – on Chf1.0880 (Jul 01 high). Above the target comes at Chf1.0940.

Resistance 3:$1.6740
Resistance 2:$1.6560
Resistance 1:$1.6500
Current price: $1.6437
Support 1: $1.6420
Support 2: $1.6380
Support 3: $1.6240
COMMENTS: The pound weakens. Support comes at channel line from Apr 28 at $1.6420 with a break under will strengthen bearish momentum down to $1.6380 (Jul 01 low), then – to $1.6230/40 (Jun 25 low). Resistance comes at session high on $1.6500 with stronger – on $1.6560 (50% Fibo of $1.6740 - $1.6380 decline). Above the target is around $1.6740 (Jun 30 highs).

Resistance 3:$1.4270
Resistance 2:$1.4200
Resistance 1:$1.4150
Current price: $1.4112
Support 1:$1.4040
Support 2:$1.3940
Support 3:$1.3820
COMMENTS: Euro retreats after yesterday’s rally. Support comes at $1.4040 with stronger one – on the channel support line from Jun 16 at $1.3940. Below losses may widen to $1.3820 (Jun 22 lows). Resistance comes at session highs on $1.4150, stronger – on $1.4200 (rate failed to break under this level yesterday). Above the resistance comes at $1.4240/70 (Jun 04-05 highs).

Major European bourses are initially seen lower Thursday: the FTSE down 24, the DAX down 34, the CAC down 26 and the Eurostoxx 50 down 16.

High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.4197 1.3998 1.4137
GBP/USD 1.6540 1.6381 1.6473
USD/JPY 96.97 96.17 96.67
USD/CHF 1.0884 1.0709 1.0751

EUR/JPY 136.86 135.04 136.68
EUR/GBP 0.8594 0.8519 0.8581
GBP/JPY 159.94 158.21 159.26
GBP/CHF 1.7889 1.7684 1.7714

Change % Change Last
Nikkei -18.51 (-0.19%) 9939.93
FTSE +91.50 (+2.15%) 4340.71
DAX +96.80 (+2.01%) 4905.44
CAC +76.56 (+2.44%) 3217.00
Dow +57.06 (+0.68%) 8504.06
NASDAQ +10.68 (+0.58%) 1845.72
S&P +4.01 (+0.44%) 923.33
NYMEX Crude Oil -0.58 (-0.83%) $69.20

06:00 Germany Wholesale sales (May) real adjusted -
06:00 Germany Wholesale sales (May) real adjusted Y/Y -
09:00 EU(16) Unemployment (May) - 9.2%
09:00 EU(16) PPI (May) - -1.0%
09:00 EU(16) PPI (May) Y/Y - -4.6%
11:45 EU(16) ECB meeting announcement 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EU(16) ECB press conference
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 27.06) 620K 627K
12:30 USA Nonfarm payrolls (June) -365K -345K
12:30 USA Unemployment rate (June) 9.6% 9.4%
12:30 USA Average hourly earnings (June) 0.2% 0.1%
12:30 USA Average workweek (June) 33.1 33.1
14:00 USA Factory orders (May) 0.3% 0.7%
20:30 USA M2 money supply (22.06), bln - +15.7