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| 14.07 08:36 |
COMMODITIES: weekly review
Crude oil
and gasoline rose to records on growing concern about violence in the Middle
East and supply disruptions from Brazil
to Nigeria.
Oil jumped as high as $147.27 a barrel after the Jerusalem Post said Israeli war planes practiced over Iraq. Israeli
government spokesman Mark Regev denied the report. A Brazilian oil workers
union is planning a five-day strike. Prices have jumped more than $10 a barrel
since July 9.
Israeli war
planes are conducting maneuvers in Iraqi airspace and using U.S. airbases in the country, possibly preparing
for a strike against Iran,
the newspaper reported, citing comments by Iraqi officials in local media. Iran, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries' second-biggest producer, this week tested missiles capable of
reaching Israel.
Iran has also said it may
blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping
lane for a fifth of the world's crude, if its nuclear facilities are attacked.
About 4,500
employees of state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA will take part in a
protest on platforms in the offshore Campos
Basin%. The basin is responsible for about 80% of the
country's oil production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta
said attacks will resume on oil facilities. The Nigerian militant group said it
will call off its unilateral cease-fire beginning at midnight on July 12.
MEND's attacks on pipelines and other installations have cut more than 20
percent of Nigeria's
oil exports since 2006. MEND says it is fighting for a greater share of oil
wealth for the impoverished inhabitants of the Niger Delta.
Oil also
rose because of the weakening dollar, which bolstered the appeal of commodities
as a hedge against the U.S.
currency's drop. Crude oil for August delivery rose to
$145.08 a barrel or 0.6%. Futures have doubled over the past year. Brent crude oil
for August settlement rose 0.05% to $144.49 a barrel.
Gold rose
to the highest since March as record energy costs and slumping equities spurred
demand for the metal as a haven. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on
March 17. Gold futures for August delivery climbed to
$960.60 an ounce. Gold gained 2.9% this week, the fourth consecutive
advance. Gold peaked four months ago when the Federal Reserve cut the interest
rate on direct loans to banks in an emergency meeting and stocks plunged
worldwide after Bear Stearns agreed to be bought by JPMorgan Chase & Co. to
avoid a collapse. Silver futures for September delivery jumped 2.4% last week, the
fourth straight gain. Silver has gained 26% this year, while gold is up
15% .

Aluminium prices
hit a record last week as China,
the world’s biggest producer, ordered smelters to reduce production because of
power shortages. China’s top 20 aluminium producers agreed to
cut their output by as much as 10% with immediate effect. Aluminium rose 7.1% on the
week to a record $3,380 a tonne. Lead surged from last week’s
one-year low as falling stocks prompted traders to cover short positions. The
metal gained 26% to $1,970 a tonne.
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| 14.07 08:33 |
Stock market : weekly review
The S&P 500, down 1.9% over the week, posted its sixth straight weekly decline
– the longest such run for four years. US stocks slumped as investors
rushed to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on speculation that a
government bail-out could wipe out shareholders while oil prices spiked
above $147, pummelling consumer-facing stocks.
Fannie and Freddie have come under massive selling pressure lastweek
on fears that they are not adequately capitalised to meet the demands
of the current housing crisis. Analysts said falling share prices and
widening credit spreads meant that raising the necessary funds would be
extremely difficult. Freddie and Fannie shares plummeted as much as 50%
before recovering to $7.75 and $10.25, respectively, down 3.1% and
22.4%.
JPMorgan
slid 3.9% and Bank of America fell 3.1%. Lehman Brothers slumped 16.6%
while the S&P 500 homebuilders index dropped 3.4% to its lowest
level in seven years. The financials sector as a whole fell 2.6% and
has now lost over half its value since the peak in February 2007.
In the background, oil prices surged,
before easing back, putting immediate pressure on consumer-facing and
energy-dependent stocks. Wal-Mart fell 1.6% while Dillard’s dropped
7.4%. The consumer discretionary and staples sectors slid 1.2% and
0.5%, respectively.
On
Tuesday, results from Alcoa came in better than expected, helping it
advance 5.7 per cent to $34.64 over the week. On Friday, industrial
bellwether General Electric also posted decent second-quarter results.
GE rose 2.8 per cent to $27.66 over the week.
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| 14.07 08:30 |
FOREX: weekly review
The dollar dropped to within a cent of the all-time low against the euro on concern losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may deepen even after policy makers said the companies aren't facing a government takeover.
Treasury
Secretary Henry Paulson said the government is supporting the two
largest buyers of U.S. home loans in ``their current form.'' The euro
touched a record versus the yen as stock markets pared losses.
``The
concerns about Fannie and Freddie just highlight how bad things are and
how vulnerable the financial system is,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a
currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. ``It's not
supportive for the dollar.''
The dollar fell 0.9 percent
to $1.5933 per euro Friday, from $1.5788 Thursday. It touched $1.5947,
the weakest since April 23. The dollar reached the all-time low of
$1.6019 the previous day.
The euro increased 0.2 percent
to 169.30 yen, from 169.05, after touching the all-time high of 169.63.
The U.S. currency dropped 0.8 percent to 106.24 yen, from 107.07. The
Australian dollar rose as much as 1 percent to 97.18 U.S. cents, the
strongest level since 1983.
The U.S. currency posted a
1.5 percent weekly decline against the euro, the third drop in four
weeks. The dollar decreased 0.8 percent versus the yen, which declined
0.9 percent against the euro.
The euro touched a record against the yen
as stocks pared losses on a Reuters report that Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Freddie Chief Executive Officer Richard
Syron yesterday that his company and Fannie can use the central bank's
discount window.
Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith said the
central bank had no discussions with Fannie and Freddie about the use
of the discount window.
The paring of stock losses
encouraged some investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded by loans
in Japan. In the carry trade, investors get funds in countries with low
borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. Japan's target
lending rate of 0.05 percent compares with 4.25 percent in the
countries that use the euro. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index
dropped 1.1 percent after falling as much as 2.2 percent.
A
government takeover of Fannie and Freddie is among options that may be
weighed by the Bush administration, said Joshua Rosner, a New
York-based analyst at Graham Fisher & Co., who met with officials
in Washington yesterday.
Crude oil rose more than $5 to a record above $147
a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on concern Israel may be
preparing to attack Iran and supplies from Brazil and Nigeria may be
disrupted.
A 10 percent increase in oil prices leads to
a 1 percent appreciation of the euro against the dollar, according to a
study by David Woo, London-based global head of currency strategy at
Barclays Capital.
``The correlation reached the highest
level this decade,'' he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``The
balance of risk is still to the upside for the euro-dollar.'' The
15-nation euro will appreciate to a range of $1.62 to $1.63 in the next
several months, Woo predicted.
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