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12.09 12:31 European focus: Yen declines as gain in stocks spurs demand for carry trades [M] Открыть в новом окне

The yen fell against the euro and the dollar on speculation that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will find a buyer, giving investors confidence to purchase higher-yielding assets funded in the Japanese currency.

The yen snapped four days of gains against the euro amid optimism a government-brokered takeover of the New York-based bank will support credit markets. U.S. officials, who are helping Lehman identify potential acquirers, may announce a deal before Asian markets open on Sept. 15.

The euro rose against the dollar.

Europe's common currency was also supported after Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, reappointed today to represent finance ministers from the euro-area for a third term, said he doesn't expect a prolonged ``recession.'' European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos told late yesterday the economy is likely to escape a recession and there are signs higher energy costs are driving up wages on a broad front.

Stocks in Europe and Asia rose for the first time in four days.

12.09 12:01 USD/JPY techs: Открыть в новом окне


Resistance 3: Y109.70
Resistance 2: Y109.00
Resistance 1: Y108.00
Current price: Y107.36
Support 1: Y106.70
Support 2: Y105.90
Support 3: Y104.70
Comments: USD/JPY strongly recovered after yesterday’s sell-off with resistance comes at Y108.00 (Wednesday’s high). Above the next band of resistance is around Monday’s high on Y109.00/10. Support is around 50% Fibo of yesterday’s fall at Y106.70, then – near trend line from Mar 17 on Y105.90. Break under this level opens the way to Y104.70 (Jul 17 low).

12.09 11:27 USD/CHF techs: Открыть в новом окне


Resistance 3: Chf1.1570
Resistance 2: Chf1.1480
Resistance 1: Chf1.1420
Current price: Chf1.1355
Support 1: Chf1.1320
Support 2: Chf1.1240
Support 3: Chf1.11700
Comments: USD/CHF is under pressure today ahead of the release of US inflation data. Economists predict PPI fell 0.3% in August after 1.2% rise month earlier. In general, rate holds within the upward channel from Jul 16, limited today by Chf1.1770/Chf1.1570 (key support/resistance respectively). Support is around Chf1.1320, then – at Chf1.1240. Below losses may widen to channel line at Chf1.1170. Above yesterday’s high Chf1.1420 resistance comes at Chf1.1480, then – near channel line on Chf1.1570.

12.09 09:08 FOREX. Thursday summary Открыть в новом окне

The dollar rose to one-year high against the euro on signs global growth is slowing and the yen strengthened on speculation investors will sell higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.


The yen appreciated to the highest level against the euro since August 2006 as concern Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will collapse encouraged investors to pare carry trades.

New Zealand's currency dropped to two-year lows against the dollar and the yen as the Reserve Bank reduced borrowing costs more than most economists forecast.

The ECB will cut its main refinancing rate by a quarter- percentage point to 4 percent during the first three months of next year, according to a surveys of economists.

The European Commission said yesterday the euro region's economy will probably stagnate this quarter after shrinking the previous three months for the first time since the currency's debut in 1999. It cut its 2008 growth forecast to 1.3%, from 1.7%.



Italian industrial production data for July is due at 0800GMT, before the 0900GMT release of Eurozone Q2 employment and July industrial production data. Employment is seen rising 0.1% q/q sa, 1.1% y/y, while expectations are for a decline in IP data by -0.1% m/m, -0.6% y/y.
US data at 1230GMT sees retail & food sales as well as the Producer Price Index for August. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August, as industry motor vehicle sales improved in the month, particularly light truck sales. Gasoline prices retreated modestly and same-store sales were soft relative to past back-to-school buying periods, so non-auto retail sales are expected to fall 0.2% in the month. Meanwhile, the PPI is expected to fall 0.5% in August after strong gains in the previous three months. Energy prices are expected to be a bit more tame after brisk increases in previous months, but food prices are forecast to post another increase. Core PPI is forecast to rise only 0.2% on increased dealer auto incentives after the outsized July gain.
At 1355GMT, the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to rise to a reading of 64.0 in early-September. Gasoline prices continued to retreat, but other economic conditions also deteriorated. At 1400GMT, business inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in July, with factory inventories already reported up 0.5%. Retail inventories are expected to be soft due to a brisk rebound in auto sales.

12.09 08:54 Stock market: Thursday summary Открыть в новом окне

Stock market fixing:

Nikkei 225 - 244.13 (-2%) 12,102.50
Topix - 29.66 (-2.5%) 1,162.72
DAX 30 -31.42 (-0.51%) 215.44
САС 40 -34.59 (-0.81%) 4249.07
FTSE 100 -47.80 (-0.89%) 5318.40
Dow +164.79 (+1.49%) 11433.71
Nasdaq +29.52 (+1.32%) 2258.22
S&P +17.01 (+1.38%) 1249.05
10YR +1/32 3.63% 103 1/32

Japan stocks tumbled, sending the Topix index to the brink of a three-year low, on concern falling asset values will batter global financial companies and the slowing economy will reduce manufacturing investment.
Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's biggest brokerage, sank 5.9 percent after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. posted a record loss. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. led equipment makers to the lowest in three years after machine orders declined. Mazda Motor Corp. plunged the most in seven years after the euro strengthened against the yen, reducing the value of its European sales.
Lehman, the fourth-biggest U.S. brokerage, yesterday reported a $3.9 billion third-quarter loss, the biggest in its 158-year history. That helped push global writedowns and credit losses caused by the collapse in the U.S. mortgage market to $511 billion, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg News.
Nomura slid 5.9 percent, the most since Sept. 18, 2007, to 1,440 yen, while Shinko Securities Co. sank 6.6 percent to 299 yen. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-biggest publicly traded bank, retreated 5.3 percent to 445,000 yen, and Resona Holdings Inc., the fourth largest, plunged 9.7 percent to 106,600 yen, after having gained 26 percent in the past three days.

European stocks fell for a third day as concern deepened the economic slowdown will hurt earnings for retailers and financial firms.
Home Retail Group Plc sank 5.7 percent after the home- improvement chain reported lower sales. William Morrison Supermarkets Plc tumbled the most in four years as Chief Executive Officer Mark Bolland said he expects ``a tough second half.'' Bank of Ireland Plc dropped 7.8 percent after Dresdner Kleinwort predicted bad-debt levels for the country's lenders may increase. Barclays Plc and Dexia SA slipped for a second day.
Home Retail slumped 5.7 percent to 228 pence, the steepest drop since July 11.
Bank of Ireland slid 7.8 percent to 5.09 euros after Dresdner cut its recommendation for the Dublin-based lender to ``sell'' from ``reduce.'' Allied Irish Banks Plc lost 3.1 percent to 7.85 euros after the brokerage downgraded the nation's largest lender by market value to ``sell'' from ``hold.''
Barclays, the U.K.'s third-biggest bank, fell 2.3 percent to 338.5 pence, while Dexia, the world's largest lender to local governments, slipped 3.3 percent to 10.29 euros in Brussels.


U.S. stocks advanced as transportation companies rallied on lower oil prices, while banking shares staged a comeback in the last half hour of trading on speculation Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will be bought.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rebounded from a 1.7 percent retreat and financial shares reversed a tumble of 4.2 percent to end the day 1.5 percent higher. CSX Corp., the third-largest U.S. railroad, climbed 11 percent and led the S&P 500 Transportation Index to its biggest gain since July as crude declined and the carrier raised its 2008 earnings forecast. Washington Mutual Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. led the gain in lenders as prospects of a Lehman takeover eased concern of more bank failures.
The S&P 500 added 17.01 points, or 1.4 percent, to 1,249.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 164.79 points, or 1.5 percent, to 11,433.71, erasing a 170-point drop. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 29.52, or 1.3 percent, to 2,258.22. About three stocks rose for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.
In early trading, the S&P 500 fell below its lowest closing level since 2005 as Lehman slumped as much as 48 percent and dragged down all 87 financial companies in the index. Financial shares erased their drop as people with knowledge of the situation said other firms were reviewing Lehman's books in preparation for a possible takeover bid. The Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of America Corp. is among potential suitors.
Fuel refiners Valero Energy Corp., Tesoro Corp. and Sunoco Inc. made up three of the top eight gains in the S&P 500 after the so-called crack spread on refining profits increased more than 35 percent. The spread is the hypothetical profit margin for processing three barrels of crude into two barrels of gasoline and one of heating oil.
A drop in crude and a rise in gasoline prices spurred the gain in the crack spread as some Texas refineries shut down to avoid damage by Hurricane Ike, expected to make landfall this weekend.
Valero jumped $2.13, or 6.9 percent, to $33.03. Tesoro rallied $1.53, or 9.3 percent, to $17.98. Sunoco added $5.25, or 12 percent, to $47.66.

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